NFL DFS Stud RB Spotlight: Week 7 Projections
Projections are live, and we’re looking ahead to Sunday’s main slate on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Using RotoGrinders LineupHQ Optimizer, we can identify some top quality stud running backs for the week with ease. In this article, we’ll leverage the projection we create for daily fantasy sports to discuss a few high priced backs we should target. We’ll also take a look at some high priced players who have some concerns. We’ll be able to hold these evaluations up against projected ownership to make some key decisions later in the week.
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Week 7 NFL DFS Running Back Report
Aaron Jones
NFL Team: Green Bay Packers
Opponent: Houston Texans
DraftKings Fantasy Points Projection: 23.37
FanDuel Fantasy Points Projection: 20.28
Yahoo Fantasy Points Projection: 20.28
The Free Aaron Jones Movement didn’t gain much ground in Week 6, as the Packers came out of their bye week basically splitting the snaps again between Jones (57%) and Jamaal Williams (51%).
Even with the relatively equal split in RB snaps over the course of the season though, Jones still sees a ton of volume in this offense. For example, Jones sees a 34.3% market share of total opportunities in this offense, with Davante Adams (16%) and Williams (15.9%) far behind him in second and third.
On tap for Week 7 is one of the better matchups a running back can get. Not only does Houston rank 27th in Defense DVOA (and 28th in Rush Defense DVOA), but they have also allowed the second most fantasy points per game (27.6) to opposing running backs.
Jones has the floor (has yet to get below double-digit fantasy points this season) and has the ceiling (dropped 40+ fantasy points in Week 2). As such, he will be one of the better stud RB’s on the Week 7 main slate.
Alvin Kamara
NFL Team: New Orleans Saints
Opponent: Carolina Panthers
DraftKings Fantasy Points Projection: 22.45
FanDuel Fantasy Points Projection: 19.36
Yahoo Fantasy Points Projection: 19.36
As good of a spot that Jones is in, I might have to give the slight edge to Kamara. That is saying a lot considering the Saints are set to get Michael Thomas back this week.
Kamara has a similar situation in the New Orleans backfield as Jones but just in a slightly different way. While Latavius Murray doesn’t have as high of a snap rate as the Green Bay #2 (Williams), he does see more opportunity in this offense. But Kamara is still obviously the lead dog, as he is always right around 20 touches whether it be via the ground or the air.
The best part about Kamara though is this matchup against Carolina. For one, they are one of the worst run defenses in the league, ranking 26th in Rush Defense DVOA. But perhaps more importantly is how many receptions they allow to opposing running backs. Their 47 receptions allowed to that position is the most in the league, narrowly edging out the 46 allowed by Atlanta.
We all know by now how much damage Kamara does in the passing game, and that is sure to continue in Week 7 in this matchup even though Michael Thomas is making his return. You have to think that Kamara will have a lot of say in it if the Saints are going to score 29+ points like the oddsmakers think.
Derrick Henry
NFL Team: Tennessee Titans
Opponent: Pittsburgh Steelers
DraftKings Fantasy Points Projection: 19.86
FanDuel Fantasy Points Projection: 17.89
Yahoo Fantasy Points Projection: 17.89
Henry going up against this tough Steelers defense, one week after breaking the slate, should make for an interesting test case in ownership.
On the one hand, it is hard to find a more difficult matchup in the league. Already a guy with marginal (but improving) contributions in the passing game, Henry and the Titans will now face off against arguably the best run defense in the league. The Steelers have allowed only 66.2 rushing yards per game (which is narrowly behind Tampa) and rank first in the league in Rush Defense DVOA.
On the other hand, Henry feels like one of the few backs in the league that is truly matchup-proof. With the DFS field getting sharper and sharper by the week, what is ultimately going to win out when it comes to Henry’s ownership? Will it be the projection systems across the industry that are surely going to prefer other high-priced backs in better matchups? Or will it be the recency bias coming off of Henry’s 250+ total yards and two scores in Week 6?
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Image Credit: Imagn