Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - Game 1 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | +165 |
| Dodgers Odds | -200 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 7 |
| Time | 9:20 PM ET |
| TV | TBS |
The Arizona Diamondbacks finished the regular season 16 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West division. And now, these two teams will meet in the NL Division Series beginning on Saturday. Merrill Kelly will toe the rubber for Arizona in Game 1, with Clayton Kershaw on the bump for Los Angeles. First pitch is scheduled for 9:20 PM ET on TBS.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Dodgers as -200 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 7.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Merrill Kelly looking to rewrite history against Los Angeles
According to Reuters, Merrill Kelly is 0-11 with a 5.49 ERA in 16 career regular-season starts against the Dodgers. In 2023, Kelly has faced the Dodgers four times, allowing 9 earned runs across 20.1 innings of work. His best outing came on August 9, when he delivered 6 scoreless innings. However, his most recent outing against the Dodgers came on August 29, when he allowed 7 earned runs on 12 hits in only 5 innings. Kelly allowed 7 earned runs twice in his final seven turns through the rotation this season, but he held his opponent to 2 runs or less in his five other trips to the mound. Kelly likely struggles on Saturday, but it remains to be seen how much, and if Arizona’s offense will have a chance to at least keep this contest competitive.
Time to believe in the Diamondbacks offense?
In two games against the Milwaukee Brewers earlier this week, Arizona scored 11 runs, which makes it worth wondering: is this offense capable of competing with Los Angeles in the NLDS? The short answer: probably not. Prior to the NL Wild Card round, the Diamondbacks had scored 3 runs or fewer in five consecutive games. Across their final 22 regular season games, Arizona amassed an MLB-worst 13 home runs and ranked 27th in OPS. Facing LHP, Arizona ranked 16th in OPS and 24th in ISO during the month of September. This is a lineup that is going to have to find creative ways to score runs if they have any hope of advancing to the next round of the postseason.
Arizona’s bullpens usage cause for concern heading into NLDS
Though there is a proven track record of successfully over-using relievers in the postseason, it is doubtful that Arizona will be able to do so this October. Manager Tony Lovullo used Kevin Ginkel for 25 effective pitches on Tuesday night, but Ginkel allowed 3 hits in only ⅓ of an inning on Wednesday, with no rest between appearances. Ginkel and Paul Sewald, Arizona’s two best relievers, are also facing a much tougher offense in the NLDS than they did in the previous round against Milwaukee. It is likely that Arizona will need bullpen depth that it simply doesn’t have if they want to be competitive in this series. The Diamondbacks relief corps generated only a 22.3% strikeout rate during the last month of the regular season, which is not a recipe for success against the high-contact Dodgers.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Kershaw looking to make amends for past October failures
In his career, Clayton Kershaw has been far more vulnerable in October than he has during the summer months. However, he has begun to change that narrative in recent seasons, having won four of his last five postseason decisions dating back to 2020. On Saturday, Kershaw draws an extremely favorable matchup against an Arizona offense that ranked 25th in OPS and 28th in ISO against LHP from July 1 to the end of the regular season. This is a great opportunity for Kershaw to make amends for what has been an underwhelming playoff resume in an otherwise illustrious MLB career.
Mookie Betts leads vaunted Los Angeles lineup
Ronald Acuna Jr. is the presumptive Most Valuable Player award recipient in the National League for 2023, but there are more than a few convincing arguments that can be made in favor of Mookie Betts winning the honor. Betts hit 39 home runs and drove in 107 runs for the Dodgers during the regular season while batting out of the leadoff spot. Overall, Los Angeles scored the 2nd-most runs in all of baseball this season, trailing only the 104-win Atlanta Braves. The Dodgers combine elite bat-to-ball skills with impressive power, making life extremely tough on opposing pitchers. This lineup has experienced success against Merrill Kelly in the past, which only strengthens their chances to contribute to a win in Game 1 on Saturday.
Best bullpen in the postseason?
The Dodgers relief unit led all of baseball in FIP, WHIP, and opponent batting average after the All-Star Break during the regular season. During that stretch, they also ranked 7th in strikeout rate and 3rd in walk percentage. Los Angeles does not have as many marquee names in the late innings as they have had in previous seasons, but this is arguably their most talented group of relievers they have taken into October in the last 10 years.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers – Picks & Predictions
The MLB postseason is a breeding ground for competitive games, which generally makes the runline a risky investment this time of year. Yet, it is difficult to imagine there being a more lopsided matchup the rest of this month than the one we will see at Dodger Stadium on Saturday night. Los Angeles has the better starting pitcher, better offense, and better bullpen in this matchup. Trust the home favorites to take care of business in this spot, and do not be surprised if they win comfortably.
PICK: Dodgers -1.5 (+105, Fanatics Sportsbook)