Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - Game 2 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | +140 |
| Dodgers Odds | -160 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Mon, Oct. 9 |
| Time | 9:07 p.m. |
| TV | TBS |
The Arizona Diamondbacks lost four games in a row to end the regular season, but they have managed to win each of their first three playoff contests to put themselves two wins away from a trip to the National League Championship Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers won 100 games this summer, but struggled mightily in Game 1 of this series, losing 11-2 in front of their home fans. Tonight, these two clubs will go to battle once again. First pitch is scheduled for 9:07 p.m. ET on TBS.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Dodgers as -160 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 7.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Can Zac Gallen deliver in Game 2 for Arizona?
Across his final seven turns in the rotation during the regular season, Zac Gallen posted a 4.93 ERA, 4.23 FIP, and 1.36 WHIP. Compared to his season averages, he struggled across the board – generating fewer strikeouts, allowing more walks, throwing fewer strikes, and enticing fewer swings at pitches outside of the strike zone. This season, Gallen has also been significantly worse on the road compared to his numbers at home, which made it particularly surprising that he was able to throw the ball so well against the Milwaukee Brewers in the Wild Card round.
Nevertheless, Gallen only managed four strikeouts against the Brewers and his three walks were particularly worrisome, especially because he was very aggressive early in counts against Milwaukee, with a 70.8% first-pitch strike rate. Facing a much more talented Los Angeles offense, it is likely that we see Gallen regress sharply on Monday. Do not expect to see him still on the mound in the sixth inning.
Time to believe in the Diamondbacks offense?
In two games against the Milwaukee Brewers earlier this week, Arizona scored 11 runs, which made it worth asking, “Is this offense capable of competing with Los Angeles in the NLDS?” In Game 1, Arizona scored six runs off of Clayton Kershaw in the first inning and had nine runs on the board before Los Angeles was even able to get everyone in their lineup an at-bat.
However, it is worth noting that Kershaw’s fastball velocity was down and his spin rates were dramatically lower than his season averages across the board in that contest. Though credit is still due – Arizona took advantage – the Diamondbacks are unlikely to benefit from the same situation again on Monday evening.
Prior to the NL Wild Card round, the Diamondbacks had scored three runs or fewer in five consecutive games. Across their final 22 regular season games, Arizona amassed an MLB-worst 13 home runs and ranked 27th in OPS. Facing right-handed pitching, Arizona ranked 28th in OPS and 28th in ISO during the month of September. This is a lineup that is due for negative regression, and it could happen as soon as tonight.
Arizona’s bullpen in good shape heading into Game 2
In the series opener, Merrill Kelly delivered 6.1 innings of shutout baseball for Arizona, which allowed manager Tony Lovullo to avoid over-taxing his bullpen, which had heavy usage during the Wild Card round. Even more important, the Diamondbacks’ large lead allowed Lovullo to avoid using his high-leverage arms altogether in the season opener. Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald should be rested and ready to cover multiple innings tonight if needed.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Bobby Miller making postseason debut in Game 2
At this time last year, Bobby Miller had still not appeared in a Major League Baseball game and had only thrown 150 career innings in the minors. Tonight, he will toe the rubber for the Dodgers in a game that will change the trajectory of their season, for better or for worse.
During the regular season, Miller posted a 3.76 ERA, 3.45 xERA, 3.51 FIP, and 1.10 WHIP. He finished the year ranked in the 81st percentile in xERA, 65th percentile in average exit velocity, and 81st percentile in barrel rate. He throws a lot of strikes, limits hard contact, and gets ground balls at a high frequency, which gives him a high floor going into tonight’s matchup against a weak-hitting Arizona offense.
Miller did not have any stark platoon splits or home-and-away splits in his rookie campaign. He also proved that is capable of getting through a lineup more than once with success. If everything goes according to plan, he has a chance to get deep into this ballgame.
Mookie Betts leads dangerous Dodgers’ lineup
Following the All-Star break, the Dodgers offense ranked 2nd in OPS, 9th in ISO, 6th in walk percentage, and 6th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. During that stretch, no team in baseball hit line drives more often than Los Angeles, and only Minnesota and Seattle hit fewer ground balls. There was evidently a fair amount of rust for this lineup in Game 1 after not playing in nearly a week, but they should be in much better shape tonight as they look to save their season.
All hands on deck for Los Angeles bullpen
During the second half of the regular season, the Dodgers relief unit led all of baseball in FIP, WHIP, and opponent batting average. During that stretch, they also ranked 7th in strikeout rate and 3rd in walk percentage. Fortunately for manager Dave Roberts, there was an off day between Game 1 and Game 2, which means that all of his relievers not named Emmet Sheehan are available tonight if needed. This arm barn does not have as many marquee names in the late innings as they have had in previous seasons, but this is arguably their most talented group of relievers they have taken into October in the last 10 years.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers – Picks & Predictions
In hindsight, the writing was on the wall for a Dodgers loss in Game 1 – though, an 11-2 final score was certainly an outlier outcome. Tonight, Los Angeles has arguably their best starting pitcher on the bump and they get to face Zac Gallen, who has struggled considerably on the road this season. The Los Angeles bullpen is all hands on deck as they look to avoid a dire 0-2 hole to begin this five-game series. The home favorites are the more talented team by a significant margin. Trust them to bounce back in a big way this evening.
PICK: Dodgers moneyline (-160, Fanatics Sportsbook)