Dodgers vs. Padres Odds, Picks & Prediction — Wednesday, August 25th
Nick Galaida looks at baseball odds for Wednesday’s game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres. Follow along as he previews the matchup and gives two free MLB betting picks for August 25th. Also don’t miss out on this insane sportsbook promo, a $5,000 risk-free bet from Caesars!
Dodgers vs. Padres Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -140 |
| Padres Odds | +130 |
| Over/Under | 8 |
| Date | Wednesday, Aug. 25 |
| Time | 10:10 pm ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds accurate as of Wednesday at Caesars | |
| Click Here to Claim Your $5,000 Risk-Free Bet at Caesars Sportsbook! | |
On Wednesday evening, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres will play the second contest in a three-game set at Petco Park. Yesterday, the Dodgers jumped out to an early lead and never looked back in a 5-2 win. Entering play, Los Angeles has won 14 of their last 16 games. San Diego has lost 10 of their last 12 matchups. Tonight, Walker Buehler will get the nod for the Dodgers as he looks to continue building his case for Cy Young. He will be opposed by Blake Snell. Oddsmakers have the Dodgers once again listed as heavy favorites at -148 on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks on Wednesday.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Heading into today’s action, Buehler has the best odds of any pitcher to win the National League Cy Young award. Across 162.1 innings of work in 2021, he owns a 2.11 ERA, 2.96 xERA, and a 3.13 FIP. He ranks in the 70th percentile or better in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, strikeout-percentage, and walk rate. In Buehler’s last 18 trips to the mound, he has 17 quality starts and has allowed no more than three earned runs in any of his outings. In his last eight starts, he has been virtually unhittable with a 1.33 ERA and a 2.32 FIP. He should once again turn in a sterling performance this evening against a struggling San Diego ballclub.
Los Angeles won a World Series last season despite their inability to hit left-handed pitching. They have added some right-handed bats for 2021, but the success has not been as clear-cut as the front office might have anticipated. Against southpaws this year, the Dodgers rank only 19th in OPS, but they are second in ISO—meaning that they hit for great power, but that their offense is mostly boom or bust in these situations.
Over the last 30 days, the Dodgers rank first in bullpen FIP. Last night, they used five relief pitchers in the victory, but the off-day on Monday means that nobody has thrown on consecutive days. Everyone should be available tonight if needed, although there could be some slight fatigue concerns with Kenley Jansen, Blake Treinen, and Corey Knebel all having thrown 19 or more pitches yesterday.
San Diego Padres
Snell has been a colossal disappointment for Padres fans this season with a 4.82 ERA, 5.62 xERA, and a 4.31 FIP. Only four times in 23 starts has he managed to complete six innings. Snell ranks in the 30th percentile or worse in average exit-velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, walk-percentage, and chase rate. If not for his big-name reputation, cemented during his 2018 American League Cy Young award campaign, we might be talking about Snell’s job security in the Padres rotation right now. Instead, he is locked-in every fifth day for a San Diego team that is dealing with a plethora of injuries and is spiraling out of the National League playoff picture.
San Diego’s offense has struggled mightily as of late, ranking 29th in OPS over the last seven days, and 27th in OPS over the last two weeks. It will be difficult to improve upon those numbers tonight against arguably the best pitcher in baseball this year.
Due to a significant amount of injuries in the starting rotation, the Padres have essentially put together a three-man rotation and are using bullpen days for the other two rotation spots. Still, despite being tremendously over-used by Manager Jayce Tinger, this relief corps ranks eighth in FIP over the last 30 days. An off-day on Monday helped to reset pitch counts for the relievers, but using eight arms in last night’s loss means that very few options are fully rested heading into this evening.
Dodgers vs. Padres Picks & Prediction
Los Angeles is the hottest team in baseball and will get to play behind their best starting pitcher this evening. Any fatigue-related concerns in the bullpen are more than cancelled out by San Diego’s overused relief unit. The Dodgers are a boom or bust offense against left-handed pitching, which makes playing the total in this game risky. Instead, bettors should confidently lock in their wagers on the Dodgers to win this game. If looking to maximize profit, it could be worth splitting your wager between the moneyline and the -1.5 run line here.
Pick: Dodgers ML (-140), -1.5 (+122)
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