Primetime Parlay: Dolphins vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:17:37

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Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through thousands of simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting apps. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a same-game parlay for the Miami Dolphins versus the Kansas City Chiefs in Frankfurt, Germany.

The International Series will return on Sunday morning when the Miami Dolphins meet the Kansas City Chiefs in Frankfurt, Germany. A game that would clearly be the game of the week will be reserved for its own time slot on Sunday morning in the United States. Fresh off a potential extra hour of sleep, the NFL hopes for fireworks across the pond with two of the best offenses in the league. For us, we will sift through a cornucopia of betting options for a same-game parlay ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Dolphins vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay

The Chiefs are at -1.5 on the point spread for the game between two division leaders abroad. Per SAO, 67% of betting tickets and 88% of betting handle sit with the Chiefs for this game. Despite an upset loss to the Broncos, the Chiefs are still considered favorites on a neutral field.

Oddsmakers predict plenty of points will be scored, but the betting market seems unconvinced. While 72% of betting tickets are on the over, 82% of actual money bet on the implied game total of 50.5 points favors the under. When we see a split like this, often our eyebrows should be raised. Bettors wagering far more than casuals think this game will go under. Games held in Europe — when both teams have to travel — normally don’t explode into shootouts. We will bookmark this for ParlayIQ and our simulations soon.

The Dolphins will be at nearly full strength save for Terron Armstead, who seems very questionable for the game on Sunday morning. With the Dolphins on bye the following week, Miami might be wise to be more careful with their left tackle as they prepare for a playoff run. Meanwhile, the Chiefs will not have Clyde Edwards-Helaire. CEH is out with an illness, while Jerick McKinnon seems likely to play despite being limited in Thursday’s practice.

For this game, I think it would be best to list the pertinent offensive statistics. We know what these teams are capable of, but feast your eyes:

Dolphins’ offense categories:
1st — 33.9 PPG
1st — 7.3 yards per play
1st — 5.9 rushing yards per attempt
1st — 9.0 yards per pass attempt

For the Chiefs:
12th — 23.4 PPG
4th — 5.8 yards per play
17th — 4.2 yards per rush attempt
11th — 7.4 yards per pass attempt

The Miami offense continues to take aim at offensive records with everything working. Tyreek Hill is putting together a ridiculous season, while the running game continues flourishing. Mike McDaniel has his playmakers in positions to make big plays.

Yet the Dolphins haven’t a signature win on their CV this season. This would be that signature win. For the Chiefs, the offense is struggling by Kansas City standards, but the defense is on a roll. The Chiefs’ defense is third in yards per play, second in points per game, and second in sack percentage. The Chiefs’ defense is the reason why this team continues to win despite some of the most bang-average play in the career of Patrick Mahomes.

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While the Chiefs’ weapons on the outside continue to develop, Travis Swi… I mean Kelce continues to thrive as the focal point of the offense. Further, Isiah Pacheco possesses a hold over the Chiefs’ backfield that we have not seen in recent years. Pacheco has double-digit carries in all but two games. Of late, Pacheco’s role in the passing game continues to grow, collecting 4, 4, and 6 targets over the last few games. While Kelce is the feature piece of the offense, the Chiefs seem to be better suited for running the football behind the Rutgers alum and playing great defense.

With that said, the Miami defense ranks 25th in scoring, allowing 25.5 points per game despite playing some horrendous offenses. The Dolphins continue to add pieces with Jalen Ramsey, the signature addition to a defense that needs to course correct ahead of the playoffs.

With all of this said, we are looking at two offenses with great potential to score plenty of points. Will traveling to Europe impact early rhythm? Will great offensive play calling and quarterback play overcome those concerns? Let’s see what ParlayIQ concludes after nearly 5,000 statistical simulations of the game.

Same Game Parlay Picks for International Series

Over 50.5 Points
Tagovailoa Over 271.5 Passing Yards
Mostert Under 53.5 Rushing Yards

Over 50.5 Points

While the betting information on SAO leaves me puzzled, I can’t help but hope for a shootout in Frankfurt. Both offenses are very capable of going up and down the field against good defenses. My gut tells me this is a statement game for Miami, and Mike McDaniel and company will do everything to score as much as possible in a victory. I don’t suspect the Chiefs will struggle to score against the Dolphins.

We need to hope the teams can find a rhythm early and not let all of the travel open the game in a sluggish manner. We aren’t normally treated to offenses of this caliber overseas. I am going to side with these offenses being just too elite to be held in check. Tyreek Hill is nearly impossible to cover and Patrick Mahomes continues to find a way to get the job done even with a very young receiver corps.

Give me the over. Let’s find some props that will align.

Tua Tagovailoa Over 271.5 Passing Yards

Tua Tagovailoa is a slight betting favorite to win the MVP on FanDuel Sportsbook. Your humble narrator in possession of this future continues to root for Tua despite being a card-carrying New York Jets fan. Just behind Tua is Patrick Mahomes in the MVP betting market.

This game will go a long way in settling this future. If the Dolphins can beat the Chiefs in a big game where Tua outplays or matches the efforts of the two-time MVP winner across the field, he will likely be the odds-on favorite on sports betting sites for the next few weeks. The Dolphins are clamoring for a big signature win. This is that win. ParlayIQ and I agree. Tua is going to have a big game.

This correlates well with betting the over in our first leg.

Raheem Mostert Under 53.5 Rushing Yards

If we are going to play the shootout game, I am going to build in some negative correlation with a Miami Dolphin. While betting the under on Mostert’s rushing correlates with a passing over, I think FanDuel will give us slightly better odds because we are working against the tide of our over on the game total.

Raheem Mostert has been nothing short of outstanding this season. With that said, coming into the contest a little banged up and potentially taking a backseat if the game goes back and forth, it would make sense to see Mostert with slightly fewer opportunities. While the man is a big play waiting to happen, the emphasis on passing and the return of Jeff Wilson Jr. should hold Mostert at bay. We will close our ticket with this.