Dolphins vs. Packers Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Dolphins vs. Packers Odds
| Dolphins Odds | +3.5 |
| Packers Odds | -3.5 |
| Over/Under | 47.5 |
| Date | Thursday, November 28 |
| Time | 8:20 PM ET |
| TV | NBC |
Happy Thanksgiving! The NFL’s holiday slate will wrap up on Thursday with a marquee matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers from Lambeau Field. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Packers as 3.5-point home favorites on the spread. The total is set at 47.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, unders in Thanksgiving night games are 11-6 since 2006. When the total is 43 or higher in those games, the under is 8-3 in that span.
Miami Dolphins Preview
Can Tagovailoa overcome cold-weather struggles?
The temperature at Lambeau Field on Thursday night is forecast to be below freezing, with the “feels-like” temperature in the teens, per RotoGrinders meteorologist, Kevin Roth. Winds are expected to be sustained around 10 to 15 mph, with gusts approaching 25 mph.
None of this is good news for Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami offense. Tagovailoa has played in 4 games during his NFL career in which the temperature was below 40 degrees, and he’s gone 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in those games. This has historically been a difficult spot for the Dolphins franchise as a whole as well, with the team posting an all-time record of 11-28 SU in games in which the temperature is below freezing at kickoff, per Evan Abrams.
Miami enters play having won each of their last 3 games, but 2 of those games were played at home in the beautiful South Beach weather. The other win they had in that span came indoors at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. This will be a significant change of scenery for the Dolphins.
Fuller ruled OUT
CB Kendall Fuller will miss his 3rd consecutive game tonight – a notable loss for Miami’s secondary unit. This season, Fuller ranks 27th out of 96 players at his position in run defense grade and 43rd in coverage grade, per PFF. Last year, he finished 7th overall out of 127 qualified players at his position in PFF grading.
Miami’s defense has performed well without Fuller in 2024, but they also haven’t faced any high-caliber quarterbacks in those situations. The Dolphins played Mason Rudolph and Will Levis in Week 4, Gardner Minshew in Week 11, and rookie Drake Maye in Week 12. All of those games were also played at home at Hard Rock Stadium. Facing Jordan Love will be a tough test for this unit, which is down one of their most talented players.
Green Bay Packers Preview
What to expect from Love, Packers offense
Last season, Jordan Love firmly established himself as one of the league’s best emerging young quarterbacks, even leading Green Bay to a dominant playoff win on the road at Jerry World. This season, he has been more vulnerable than many people expected, likely due to an injury suffered in Week 1 that has led to lasting impacts on his game in 2024.
Since Love returned to the field in Week 4, he has thrown a league-high 10 interceptions. Still, it hasn’t been all bad. During that stretch, Love still ranks 10th in EPA/play and 14th in success rate, putting him safely in the “above average” tier of quarterback play.
His EPA/play has largely been driven by his newfound affinity for throwing the deep ball. Since Week 4, he has the 5th-highest aDOT of any qualified signal caller, which has led to a robust 8.1 yards per pass attempt in that span. We should expect more of the same from Love and company this evening.
McKinney leading Green Bay defense to success
S Xavier McKinney enters play in Week 13 tied for the NFL lead with 7 interceptions this season. He has been arguably the most productive player at his position in 2024, ranking 2nd out of 90 safeties in coverage grade and 35th in run defense grade, per PFF. He leads Green Bay with 9 passes defensed and has the 4th-most tackles of any player on the team’s defense.
Since Week 4, the Packers’ defense ranks 7th in EPA/play against the pass. They haven’t allowed a single completion to go for 40+ yards during that stretch, in large part due to the play of McKinney. This defense, which features a relatively high rate of 2-high shells, is well-equipped to slow down Miami’s track stars.
Dolphins vs. Packers Prediction
Since Jordan Love returned from injury in Week 4, Green Bay ranks 5th in the entire NFL in rush rate and have played at the 8th-slowest pace in the league. Since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury in Week 8, Miami has played at the 3rd-slowest pace in the league.
Given the cold temperatures and the fact that both of these defenses have done a good job limiting long passing plays this season, we could see a lower-scoring affair between Green Bay and Miami on Thanksgiving.
PICK: Under 47.5 (-112, DraftKings)
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