DraftKings Millionaire Maker Trends Through Week 10
Sometimes we need to think about other ways to win in DFS other than simply playing the best plays. Looking at trends of top lineups is one route to take to do just that. One of the easiest tools to become a better tournament player is studying the trends of lineups that win or nearly win.
I’ve been keeping track of some trends for the DraftKings Millionaire Maker for the first 10 weeks and wanted to share some of those here in a simple format for you to understand. These are all trends from the top 10 lineups each week.
If you want to follow these yourself with a little excel work, you can create your own trends to follow by either downloading the CSV from DraftKings, or just make it easy on yourself by using ResultsDB here on RotoGrinders to gather information.
Flex Usage
I discussed on the Premium GPP show the strong trends we have been seeing with RBs in the flex so far this year, and with RBs appearing in nine of the 10 flex spots for Week 10, the trend continued to get stronger. I’m at the point where I’m forcing 80%+ of my GPP teams to have RBs in the flex and making sure no TEs ever appear in that spot.
Average Ownership by Position for Week 10
If you were contrarian this week, it really paid off, as we saw the lowest AO of the season after the Top 10 lineups averaged just 84.78% ownership. The season average of AO now sits at 112.9%, which means that the total ownership of the average top 10 lineups each week totals to 112.9%. You can control lineup ownership either by groups or the ownership tool in our Lineup Builder if you wish to start leveraging ownership to a higher degree on your GPP teams.
Average Ownership Through Week 10
Here are the totals of the AO each of the first 10 weeks of the season. On the chalkiest week of the season, we hit just over 140% on AO, with this week coming in the lowest at just under 85%. I tend to make a wide variety of teams based on ownership, but I usually set my ownership level in the lineup builder in the 120-130% max range, as I don’t want to be completely with the crowd on a weekly basis.
Stacks for Week 10
We had our first and I suspect last five-man team stack this week, which also happened to win, as a Bears fan used four position players and the defense to win a million dollars. For just the second time all season, we had no game stacks in the Top 10, as Mitchell Trubisky Bears stacks littered the Top 10. Trubisky has been on the winning team three times this year as well.
Stacks Through Week 10
Team stacks now outnumber game stacks 55-39 on the season, with just six non-stack teams making the top 10 all season. I still think the three-man and four-man game stacks are very viable, even though they didn’t hit this week, while I have eliminated five-man stacks from my builds over the past few weeks. The trends of what stacks are showing up in the Top 10 lineups each week are very strong, so make sure to assess how you are building teams if you are not on one of the four major stacks here.
Bust Rates of Top 3 Highest Owned at Position Through Week 10
All three of the highest owned QBs busted compared to the winners this week, which has happened only one other time this season. Josh Gordon and Tyler Boyd both busted at WR this week, as high owned plays and further solidified WR as the most volatile position — two out of every three high owned players at the position have busted over the course of the season. Fading the highly owned WRs has been one of the stronger trends over the first 10 weeks.
Low Owned Plays (Sub 5%) Per Lineup
Week 10 saw players like Allen Robinson (2.4%) and Eric Ebron (4.5%) all over the top 10, and we even had one of the bigger feats I’ve seen, as one user had Taylor Gabriel (2.3%) put up a zero and still make it into the top 10. Overall we are at 2.46 low owned plays per top 10 lineup on the season, and I would expect us to land somewhere in the 2.3-2.8 range on the season. You can have a majority of highly owned players on your teams as long as you differentiate in at least one or two spots with these sub 5% owned players; including one or two of them really helps your team stand out from the field.
Week 10 Winning Lineup
Congratulations to BearDown247, who seemed to have used his love for the Bears to create a one-of-a-kind five-man Bears onslaught, including the defense, to take home $1,000,000. As I mentioned earlier, Trubisky led stacks have now won the Millionaire Maker three times, as he continues to be relatively low owned every week along with all of his main weapons also drawing low ownership.
Hopefully this can help you look at the way you make your teams in a different light and help you make lineups more correlated with what the top lineups are actually doing.