DraftKings NASCAR: Laps Led/Fastest Laps
DraftKings officially released their Daily Fantasy NASCAR contest, and in no time the RotoGrinders forums were filled with consternation. No one was happy with the scoring system. I agree with many of the comments, but I have warmed to the scoring system.
In my life I have had to deal with some tragic revelations: Santa Claus isn’t real, playing guitar doesn’t automatically get you girls, and the DraftKings DFS NASCAR scoring uses laps led and fastest laps statistics. I got over it, and you will too.
Laps Led
For every lap your driver is in first, you will earn 0.25 points. In theory, Martinsville is a 500 lap race, so a driver could earn 125 points (nearly impossible, but I did see this happen in a truck race).
This is a legitimate stat. The best driver will run out front all race. If you want to be successful in a DFS contest, be it basketball, football, or NASCAR, you need to pick the best player on a given day. Again, many argue that the only stat that matters in NASCAR is finishing position. To that I say: the only stat that really matters in basketball are wins and losses. Should LeBron’s triple-double be erased because he lost the game?
Fastest Lap
Imagine it’s lap #1, and all 43 cars go around once. The driver that went the fastest will earn 0.5 points in DFS. In theory, on any lap any car on the track can record a fast lap, but that’s not really possible either.
Fastest lap is a controversial stat, but it shouldn’t be. The best drivers with the best cars at a given track will run fast laps. Period. The problem is that some people know just enough to be dangerous.
“What about drafting? A car in last place could draft another car and run a fastest lap. That’s a stupid stat!”
You are correct for the restrictor plate tracks that make up 11% of the season; the other 89% of the time you are dead wrong. I know that since I am a NASCAR fan, you might mistake me for being a scientist (that’s a very common mistake). Alas, I am not, so I will let the scientist at buildingspeed.org explain it for you:
“The current version of the NASCAR stockcar is highly aerodependent on one-and-a-half-mile tracks…A car depends on air rushing over it to push its tires into the track. Turbulent air – like you find in the wake of a high-speed car – doesn’t provide as much downforce as laminar (straight-flowing) air. This is why drivers value “clean air”. If you’re the first car in line, you don’t have turbulent air from the car in front of you because there is no car in front of you…The ‘aeropush’ effect happens when you get too close to the car in front of you. The air coming off its rear end is turbulent and doesn’t give you as much downforce as laminar flow would provide. It’s like running over ice: the only thing you can do is slow down.”
I know, science is awesome. Fastest lap is not a random stat. It’s probably the most scientific stat in daily fantasy sports. Picking a winning daily fantasy NASCAR team at DraftKings is going to require grinding.
Daily Fantasy NASCAR Postulate #1
Based on the science above, the cars in front are more likely to earn laps led points and fastest lap points.
If you’re going to put together a winning team, 2-3 drivers will need to be at the front of the field for the majority of the race. Due to the salary cap, it is unlikely to field a whole fantasy team of drivers that run out front all day. Some of your points will have to come from cheaper drivers that benefit from place differential points.
Let’s get back to the fastest drivers; how do we pick them?
You need to either watch practice and qualifying or read the practice speed reports. The numbers will not lie. Pay extra attention to drivers that ran top speeds on runs of over 10 laps. A single fast lap during practice often means a car is in qualifying trim (or setup). If a driver averages a high speed over the course of 10 laps, this means the team has developed a strong race trim and will likely be a strong contender for the win.
After qualifying, the DFS community will circle the drivers starting in top 4 to 6 positions (maybe even the top 10 qualifiers). This is like waiting for starting lineups to be announced. Once you know who’s starting up front, you can make your selections. Simply put the six drivers through the ringer and break them down.
How did the driver run in practice (sometimes qualifying results are not reflective of the driver/car will perform during an actual race)? How’s the driver running this year? How has the driver performed at this track in the past? How has the driver performed at this type of track this year and over their career (there are three types of tracks: short, restrictor plate, and intermediate)? Is the driver part of a large team? How did the driver’s teammates perform in practice? What did the driver say during interviews (The drivers do not hold back. They will let the media know if they love or hate their car)? With thorough scrutiny, you should be able to narrow down the list to three drivers that will dominate the laps led and fastest lap category at DraftKings (in addition, it is likely that these drivers will score highly in the finishing position category as well).
Fastest lap and laps led will be hard to follow at first. The TV broadcast will not be much help, but the DraftKings website will provide live updates. As the Daily Fantasy NASCAR grows in popularity, the broadcast will surely adjust and DFS statistics will become a part of the culture.