Duke vs. Florida State Odds, Prediction & Prop Pick
Duke vs. Florida State Odds
| Duke Odds | +14.5 |
| Florida State Odds | -14.5 |
| Over/Under | 48 |
| Date | Sat, Oct. 21 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. |
| TV | ABC |
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup and some college football betting tips as we try to find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Week 8 of the college football season features a number of exciting matchups, including an evening showdown between #16 Duke and #4 Florida State. Entering play, Duke is 5-1 and still alive in the national title conversation. Florida State is an unblemished 6-0 and firmly entrenched in the playoff picture.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced Florida State as 14.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 48 points.
In our Duke vs. Florida State betting preview, we break down the rosters for both teams, make a prediction for the game, and deliver a free betting pick and a PrizePicks lean.
Duke
Leonard listed as game-time decision
According to ESPN’s Pete Thamel, quarterback Riley Leonard is a “true game-time decision” to play this evening against Florida State. Leonard is dealing with a high-ankle sprain, which has limited his availability at practice, leaving him with a true 50/50 chance to take the field.
If Leonard is unable to go, Duke’s offense will be led by Henry Belin IV. Similar to Leonard, Belin IV has struggled mightily when under pressure this fall – though the sample size is admittedly much smaller than Leonard’s. Per PFF, Belin has completed only 2-of-6 pass attempts when under duress in 2023, which includes an interception.
Regardless of who ends up playing quarterback for Duke on Saturday evening, they are likely to struggle against a respectable Florida State pass rush and a strong Florida State secondary unit.
Duke defense facing tough task
Entering play in Week 8, Duke’s defense ranked 13th in yards allowed per play. However, they have benefited from a number of cupcakes on their schedule. In four games against non-ranked opponents, Duke has allowed 3.9 yards per play, compared to 5.5 yards per play against Clemson and Notre Dame. Florida State is by far the best offense that Duke’s defense has faced this season, having scored at least 31 points in each of their first six games.
If Duke’s offense is unable to eat clock to keep the defense rested, it is possible that this unit gets roasted tonight on prime-time television.
Florida State
Jordan Travis leads elite Seminoles offense
According to Phil Steele, Florida State ranks 15th in offensive yards above opponent average in 2023, meaning that they are often gaining more yards than their opponent’s defense typically allows. The Seminoles also rank 11th in offensive yards per play.
Quarterback Jordan Travis has been phenomenal so far this season, throwing 13 touchdowns and only one interception in six games. He has been at his best from a clean pocket, but he has also performed adequately under pressure, with a 4-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Duke has a mediocre pass rush, which should afford Travis a strong day throwing the football. There is little reason to expect any struggles from this group on Saturday night.
Florida State defense potentially catching a break
The main vulnerability for Florida State to begin this season has been their defense. Yet they appear to be rounding into form at the right time following a 41-3 victory against Syracuse last week. They held Virginia Tech to only 17 points the week prior and Clemson to 24 points in their game before that.
Tonight, they could potentially avoid facing Riley Leonard, who has been one of the better quarterbacks in college football this season. Leonard, a dual-threat with good decision-making in the pocket, led Duke to at least 28 points in four of his five starts to begin the year. Henry Belin IV completed only 4-of-12 pass attempts last week against NC State, relying extensively on his team’s rushing attack to control the contest.
Duke vs. Florida State – Picks & Predictions
Duke’s defense has allowed more than 14 points only once in six games to begin the season, which, on the surface, makes it seem a little bit odd that they are 14-point underdogs in this matchup against Florida State. However, a deeper dive reveals a stark split in yards allowed per play by Duke’s defense against ranked opponents compared to their games against non-ranked opponents. Despite allowing only 28 points combined to Clemson and Notre Dame, Duke allowed 5.5 yards per play in those two games. Florida State is the best offense that they have faced this season, and it’s not particularly close. If Duke is unable to get pressure on Jordan Travis tonight, this could be a rout – regardless of whether Riley Leonard plays.
LEAN: Florida State -14.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)
PICK: Florida State -7 – First Half (-130, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Free PrizePicks Prediction
Jordan Travis More Than 2.5 Pass+Rush+Rec TDs, PrizePicks
In six games played this fall, Jordan Travis has yet to record fewer than two total touchdowns, meaning that he is always competitive at this market number. In three of his games played, he has scored at least three touchdowns. Tonight, he gets an ostensibly difficult matchup against a Duke defense that is perceived to be very good. However, Duke’s defense has struggled considerably against ranked opponents and this is by far their toughest test to date in 2023. Do not be surprised if Travis has a big performance tonight under the lights.
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