English Premier League Grind Down: Week 10
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It’s time for another week of fantasy soccer!
This week I’m excited that FanDuel is in the mix. If you haven’t heard, they’ve added their soccer product on Tuesday, and I’ve spent all week studying up on it and creating a projection model to try to get ready for the inaugural exciting weekend of soccer. So to best provide the best content possible, I’ve included FD salaries here and integrated the top plays into the discussion. Moreover, if the Grind Down is not enough and you want to check out my projections, or my rankings for this weekend’s contests, be sure to check the Marketplace where we have a chat room that I’ll be hanging out in tomorrow morning when lineups are announced and where I’ll be answering questions as well as offering up some last minute value plays and some general lineup advice.
As always, feel free to reach out to me on twitter and ask any questions or comments.
Manchester United vs Burnley
| Manchester United | Burnley | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| -467 | 1725 | ||||||||||
| L L W D D L | D L W L L W | ||||||||||
| 4-2-3 | 3-1-5 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.00 | 5.11 | 10.89 | 6.00 | 24.67 | 14.44 | 8.67 | 2.00 | 19.44 | 11.00 | 17.00 | 26.78 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Rooney, Ibrahimovic, Herrara, Martial, Mata | Rooney, Ibrahimovic, Depay, Mata, Young | Blind, Rooney, Depay, Mata, Herrera, Young | Andre Gray, Sam Vokes | Dean Marney, Johann-Berg Gudmundsson | David Jones | ||||||
This week’s first matchup is between Manchester United and Burnley. Burnley are coming off a week where they were able to surprise Everton at home and come away with the win. Those three points will later prove to be very valuable when they jostle for position in the bottom half of the table. This was also only the third time this season that Burnley was able to score multiple goals and having it come against an Everton squad that was an above average defensive team by most metrics further proves the volatility of soccer. Burnley had no matchups in the midweek as they are already out of the Football League Cup. Their opponent, on the other hand, was not afforded a week’s rest after the hammering by Chelsea (0-4) last weekend and had to face their cross-town rivals Manchester City in the Football League Cup. The matchup with City featured some squad rotation from City, while United featured most of their usual starting XI. United came away with a 1-0 victory in what appeared to be a close matchup and the teams were only separated by a Juan Mata goal assisted by Zlatan Ibrahimovic. The oddsmakers have this matchup as a very clear Manchester United victory to the tune of Burnley being +1700 underdogs to the home team. Never the less, there are some options on both sides of the ball to consider here
Manchester United Top Plays
Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Forward, $11,500 (FD), $7,300 (DK) – Notice something different? I’ve included the salaries for both FD and DK this week in order to get a better feel for how the price compares across the different sites. It’s important to note that with the scoring differences between both sites, some players will carry more value on one site than the other. You’ll see this more pronounced in midfielders and defenders, but with forwards, they still rely on one stat predominantly over any other stat. That is scoring. Ok, you probably have heard by now (or looked at the player card and saw) that Zlatan hasn’t scored in the premier league in a long time, and that makes you hesitant. On DraftKings where the salaries are so soft, it’s easy to take a chance on Zlatan, but on FanDuel where he’s the third highest priced player and you see a floor of single digits (against Hull on the road), it makes you very nervous to pay that premium. Here’s what I think, I think that Zlatan is a cash option this week as he has gotten very close multiple weeks in a row. In fact, he was real close against Chelsea with 4 shots inside the 6 yard box and against Burnley who conceded 50% more attempts from set plays than the average team in the league so far, Zlatan makes for a sure bet given how big of a favorite United are and how likely they are to score.
Antonio Valencia, Defender, $6,200 (FD), $4,800 (DK) – Valencia is a higher priced option on DK than he is on FD and that makes him somewhat less appealing there. He does have a high projection in my model, but if I want to fit some of the more expensive plays, he doesn’t fit in my roster build on DK. On FanDuel, he’s priced lower than average for a starting defender which makes him appealing, especially with the FD scoring. He’s valuable on the team even when they don’t do well. He touches the ball a lot, creates chances for his team and defends rather decently for the Red Devils. He’s likely on my team on FanDuel because of all those things he can do.
Manchester United Secondary Plays
Juan Mata, Midfielder, $7,900 (FD), $6,600 (DK) – He’s almost $1000 cheaper on FD than Paul Pogba, and is projected for near similar production on there. On DraftKings however, he’s just $400 cheaper, but his contributions are predicted to be much more pronounced. Mata suffered from a bit of low ownership across the fantasy world early in the season due to the seemingly fractured relationship with Jose Mourinho from their mutual time at Chelsea. However, it appears that Mourinho has decided that Mata fits his plans at Old Trafford much better than he did back at Stamford Bridge. Mata scored in the mid week and is looking to be a major part of this team going forward. I expect United to have an easier time in this one compared to last weekend, which makes many of their players in play.
Burnley Top Plays
Tom Heaton, Goalkeeper, $6,200 (FD), $3,600 (DK) The biggest price discrepancy this week is with Heaton who comes in at a bargain bin price on DK while he’s the second most expensive goalkeeper on FanDuel (and the most expensive GK who will actually play since Jakupovic isn’t in favor at the moment. Heaton carries his value at DraftKings where paying down for Goalkeeper is the way to go as it allows you the opportunity to pay up everywhere else, especially this week with pricing seemingly relaxed. For FanDuel, it remains to be seen how the tournaments will play out, since FD does price the goalkeepers based on expected save opportunities, and the win carries 0 points for the GK, Heaton doesn’t have much value there, but he does have a high floor if you think he can deliver a few saves to give him some points.
Burnley Secondary Plays
Michael Keane and Ben Mee, $6,300 and $6,000 (FD) These two players are FanDuel only options, that’s why I didn’t list the DK prices. FanDuel’s scoring allows for all eleven players to come into play, which makes center backs and defensive midfielders more viable. With Burnley expected to be on their heels most of this match, you can expect that Keane and Mee to be involved in blocking shots, clearances, passes and interceptions. Projections this week have them each close to 20 FanDuel points as a solid floor.
Middlesbrough vs Bournemouth
| Middlesbrough | Bournemouth | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 153 | 226 | ||||||||||
| L L L D L D | W L W D W D | ||||||||||
| 1-4-4 | 3-3-3 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.11 | 2.44 | 13.22 | 7.56 | 20.33 | 19.78 | 11.00 | 3.67 | 15.56 | 8.67 | 16.67 | 20.89 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Ramirez, Downing | Ramirez, Downing | Downing, Ramirez, Friend | Wilson, Daniels, Stanislas | Ibe, Arter, Gradel | King, Fraser, Gradel, Stanislas, Daniels | ||||||
This matchup will likely go under owned due to the name recognition of both teams. Middlesbrough had a solid weekend last week where they frustrated Arsenal and almost snagged a win on the road in what was expected to be a decisive victory for the Gunners. Middlesbrough managed to outshoot Arsenal 11-10, despite very small possession numbers that saw them hold possession on just 25% of the time! The matchup with Bournemouth could prove interesting for them. Bournemouth are coming off a week where they were able to pull off a 0-0 draw with Tottenham after defeating Hull 6-1 the week before. Overall, the Cherries are undefeated in 4 weeks straight and this week it looks like a draw between both these teams as both these teams will play it safe and try to come away with some points.
Middlesbrough Top Plays
Calum Chambers, Defender, $8,600 (FD), $3,200 (DK) – I will not have much exposure to any Middlesbrough players on DraftKings except in a tournament if it helps me get another player I really want at a higher price. I do like Calum Chambers on FanDuel however as he plays the central defender role and that is a role that is high scoring on their new scoring system. With clearances, interceptions, blocked shots, and tackles all counting for stats, a player on a strong defensive team gets lots of value. Chambers missed the last time out due to Middlesbrough playing his parent club Arsenal, and him being barred from that matchup under his loan terms. It’s difficult to tell what the ownership percentages/roster builds will be like for FanDuel, but it’s hard to imagine that players like Chambers won’t quickly find their way as popular cash game options.
Middlesbrough Secondary Plays
Adama Traore, Midfielders, $4,500 (FD), $5,400 (DK) – Traore was one of the reasons that Middlesbrough gave the Gunners a tough time last time out. Him and Gaston Ramirez ($5,300 FD, $6,300 DK) were controlling the midfield and put the pressure on the gunners. They should both get the start again this time around, and while Traore didn’t have any shots on target last time out, he was still taking his chances and took 3 shots that didn’t hit the target, but he still managed to be a part of the offense that almost took down Arsenal.
George Friend, Defender, $6,800 (FD), $4,700 (DK) – Friend’s price isn’t appealing on either site per se, but he does have a solid matchup. If Middlesbrough will look to make some noise in this matchup and if they are to get themselves some goals, they’ll rely on the wing players and their full backs to spread play open since the team doesn’t have any world class one-on-one players, so they’ll rely on ball movement and spreading the pitch wide. This is where the full backs like Friend and Barragan come in. I like Friend better as he’s a more consistent performer on both FD and DK. But both are viable options.
Bournemouth Top Plays
None
Bournemouth Secondary Plays
Callum Wilson, Forward, $5,900 (FD), $6,300 (DK) – Wilson is just a tournament option if you need somebody that fits in that price range. The expectation is that Middlesbrough will control possession in this one and limit the attacks, but in return, they aren’t a very efficient attacking team, so they’ll end up with lots of slow moving plays that try to limit mistakes. This would lead to fewer counter attacks and break away runs by Wilson to try to get one-on-one opportunities with the keeper. But there is a chance for this to happen, Wilson is a tournament option on both sites as he offers nothing more than goals for fantasy purposes. You can also consider Junior Stanislas and Jack Wilshire, for the tournament potential, but neither of them offer true upside for the price and are not worth a roster spot in my opinion.
Tottenham vs Leicester
| Tottenham | Leicester | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| -146 | 475 | ||||||||||
| W W W W D D | L W L D L W | ||||||||||
| 5-4-0 | 3-2-4 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.11 | 6.00 | 10.22 | 6.56 | 18.89 | 15.44 | 11.67 | 3.22 | 14.11 | 8.00 | 17.67 | 19.67 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Kane, Chadli | Eriksen, Lamela, Kane, Walker | Eriksen, Lamela | Mahrez, Vardy | Mahrez, Drinkwater, Gray | Mahrez, Drinkwater, Gray | ||||||
Tottenham and Leicester face off in this matchup between the teams that finished 1 and 3 last season in the league, and both of them have some big Champions League matchups on Wednesday. Tottenham are hosting Bayer Leverkusen while Leicester travel to Denmark to play FC Copenhagen on the road. It’ll be interesting to see what squads each team decides to put out there as both teams play very different styles. Tottenham are a pressure midfield that likes to put pressure on the opponent to make mistakes so they can exploit, it has resulted in them being one of the best defenses in all of Europe and it has served them well as they are currently second in their group in Champions League, and just 1 point off first place in the Premier League. Leicester meanwhile like to play a specific style where they give up possession to their opponent and rely on counter-attacks for their offense and put the pressure on the opponent that way. This strategy will make some very specific plays viable on Tottenham including their central midfielders on FanDuel where passes completed, clearances, interceptions and tackles are part of the scoring algorithm. It’ll be hard to predict how this game plays out as each team can choose to play a different style and squad rotation may come into play here, but the “projection model”: https://rotogrinders.com/marketplace/hambazaza-s-soccer-package-340 has Tottenham winning this matchup easily with 2-3 goals while Leicester aren’t projected to score more than 1 goal.
Tottenham Top Plays
Victor Wanyama, Midfielder, $7,100 (FD), $4,000 (DK) – Here’s the FanDuel pick. Wanyama delivers lots of passes (he gets close to 50-70 a game), acts as the holding midfielder for a team that excels at holding the midfield and can add up the tackles and interceptions. He’s a viable cash game play on FD with the ability to create chances for this teammates thus adding some limited upside through a possible assist. I wouldn’t roster him on DraftKings as he doesn’t deliver crosses and his chances at scoring a goal are very slim.
Erik Lamela, Midfielder, $7,600 (FD), $7,400 (DK) – Last time out Lamela, and Son split the corner kick duties and Lamela ended up with 4 crosses, and 5 shots against Bournemouth. This week I expect that with Leicester likely ceding possession to the Hotspurs that the Tottenham midfield will again find themselves with some room to operate. Leicester could easily push the midfielders out wide which then gives Lamela, Eriksen and Son the best chances at delivering a high score. I’m advocating for Lamela here as the primary option because I expect him to start in the wide right with Son starting as a false 9 limiting Son’s effectiveness. If Son starts out wide, then I am more likely to lean Son than Lamela.
Tottenham Secondary Plays
Christian Eriksen, Midfielder, $9,200 (FD), $7,900 (DK) – Of course, Eriksen is still a strong player to target in your fantasy squads. He still takes plenty of shots on this team as evidenced by his 4 shots against Bournemouth last weekend. He also is capable of reaching double digits without a goal or assist if he’s very active. He currently is on a goal drought in the EPL as he hasn’t scored yet and he is the only player in the top 35 in terms of shots taken who hasn’t scored a goal yet. Expect that to change soon, maybe this weekend?
Jan Vertonghen, Defender, $5,600 (FD), $3,300 (DK) – Vertonghen is an interesting player as he can provide similar floor as Wanyama for the Spurs in this matchup. He is adept at clearances, interceptions, tackles and blocked shots. It is unclear still how likely fantasy players will be utilizing defenders in these positions on FanDuel, but if the majority of players focus on goal upside alone, then they’ll likely ignore these central defenders and defensive midfielders giving you a slight edge in tournaments.
Leicester Top Plays
None
Leicester Secondary Plays
Danny Drinkwater, Midfielder, $7,100 (FD), $4,200 (DK) – If Leicester are going to concede possession, then the logical conclusion is that the defenders should rack up some defending stats. Drinkwater comes to mind when I think of Leicester’s defensive midfield opportunities. If he gets the start there he should come away with a few points without contributing offensively in any way on FanDuel. However, he gets relegated to the secondary option for this team since his production is not reliable and he may not come away with much if he doesn’t get the interceptions and tackles.
Riyad Mahrez, Midfielder/Forward, $8,600 (FD), $8,100 (DK) – Mahrez is on penalty kicks for Leicester, and he’s been able to develop some fantasy production in recent weeks despite only scoring once against Copenhagen in the Champions League. The drop in price helps him as he’s more affordable now and can be easily fit into one of your teams if you choose to do so. Mahrez was taking corners last weekend for the team and that increases his floor a little bit on DK. He’s also a very good play on FD as he creates chances for his team, and touches the ball a lot which results in some passes. He’s going to be under owned as he is not a true cash play and is on the road against one of the best defenses, so I wouldn’t put too many eggs in that basket, but he’s a tournament option if you wish to go against the grain.