EPL Grind Down Week 10 - Page 2

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2016-10-29 08:05:22

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Watford vs Hull

Watford						Hull
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				-130						428
				W W L D W D						D L L L L L
				3-3-3						2-1-6
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
10.11	3.89	14.11	7.11	16.44	25.78	9.00	2.78	21.67	11.89	15.67	21.78
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Deeney, Ighalo		Abdi		Watson, Abdi, Capoue, Holebas		Hernandez, Snodgrass		Snodgrass		Snodgrass, Huddlestone

Watford get to host Hull this weekend in what is looking to be a potential one sided affair. Watford come into this one with 11 points from a possible 18 in their last six, and they are big favorites against a depleted Hull team. The Tigers suffer a blow this week with the announcement that Snodgrass will not be available to play this week’s matchup and thus, the team will be looking for ways to overcome the absence of their play maker. This matchup is going to fare very well for Watford as they’ll have control of it from start to finish. In recent weeks, Hull have shown their true colors with five straight defeats on a combined score of 3-19. I expect some goals in this one from the Hornets.

Watford Top Plays

Jose Holebas, Defender, $6,100 (FD), $5,500 (DK) – Holebas is one of my target defenders in all lineups, when I can fit him in, I will do so. In both FD and DK scoring he has potential for a high total. On FanDuel he can be projected to get some chances created, clearances, interceptions and tackles, meanwhile on DraftKings he should be in line for the majority of the crosses the team takes along with assisting in the attack and taking shots. Holebas makes for a great play on both sites, but his price is slightly inflated on DK while it’s slightly below average on FanDuel.

Odion Ighalo, Forward, $6,400 (FD), $6,600 (DK) – Ighalo has been having trouble scoring the ball for his team this season as he’s only recorded a single one so far to go along with 1 assist. Nevertheless, he’s been getting some opportunities and against a team like Hull that has conceded plenty of goals (19 in their last 5) Ighalo is my number 1A option to target for goals.

Watford Secondary Plays

Troy Deeney, Midfielder/Forward, $6,400 (FD), $6,900 (DK) – The 1B option for goals is Deeney, Deeney will probably be more popular than Ighalo as he has 3 goals so far this season and has taken penalties for this team. Hull will be on the back foot the entire time and will try their hardest to not concede any goals in this matchup. Watford have 13 goals on the season and rank in the top half, and they’ve improved offensively from last season where they finished with just 40 goals on 38 matches and ranked in the bottom 5 for goals scored. Look for them to add to their goal total this week and if I were you, I’d make sure that I have some exposure to this team in every lineup I build.

Hull Top Plays

Curtis Davies, Defender, $8,600 (FD), $3,700 (DK) – Don’t roster Davies on DraftKings. I REPEAT! DON’T ROSTER DAVIES ON DRAFTKINGS. Ok, now that I got that out of the way, this is a clear case of the different scoring systems favoring different types of players. Davies is projected to score 27 fantasy points on FD, while the projections show him scoring 7.8 DK points. Partly due to his high potential for defensive stats including blocks, interceptions, tackles and clearances. If you do decide to take a chance on him on DK, he’s very cheap and but he has no great potential as he is very unlikely to score a goal.

Hull Secondary Plays

Ahmed Elmohamady, Defender, $4,800 (FD), $4,600 (DK) – The team will be without Snodgrass for 4 weeks or so, and Adama Diomande has been banned for 3 matches for violent misconduct. This removes them both from our options and makes this Hull squad very limited in their ability to contend with Watford this weekend. Elmo is adept as a winger and might have to slot as winger/full back hybrid. The other options are Shaun Maloney and Samuel Clucas. I’m ok with any of the three if you so choose to roster them. This is a tournament only option really as Hull will likely have a very long day at the office on Saturday.

West Brom vs Manchester City

West Brom						Manchester City
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				667						-207
				L W D D D L						W W W L D D
				2-4-3						6-2-1
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
10.89	3.56	14.33	9.44	18.56	22.56	16.78	5.89	8.89	4.89	19.89	16.44
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Berahino, Rondon, Gardner		Gardner, Rondon, McClean		Brunt, Gardner, McClean, Berahino		Aguero, Toure, De Bruyne, Bony, Kolarov		Toure, Kolarov, De Bruyne, Silva		De Bruyne, Silva, Kolarov, Navas, Nasri, Sterling

Manchester City have had a run of negative results since before the last international break, and haven’t been able to secure a win in any of their matchups. They’ve lost handily to Barcelona in the Champions League and just last weekend ended their match with Southampton in a draw and then lost to cross town rivals Manchester United in the English Football League Cup signaling their exit from that competition. Pep Guardiola is sure to make some changes to the squad, at least in the tactical sense as he tries to correct the trajectory of the squad that is still in first place in the Premier League, but the gap between first and fifth is currently just a single point. On the other side of this matchup are West Brom who play at home where they have five points in their last three matches including a 1-1 draw with Tottenham. Toni Pulis’ teams are generally tough to handle as they are usually very solid defensively, and WBA are rounding into that solid defensive form. Can they continue that trend against the Citizens?

West Brom Top Plays

Ben Foster, Goalkeeper, $6,100 (FD), $3,900 (DK) – Foster is very cheap on DK where he comes in as a big underdog, playing at home. Foster has consecutive games with at least 5 saves against top competition, so you know he’s very capable of handling the pressure. FanDuel seems to be pricing keepers with high save upside accordingly, which puts him out of range in that matchup. He’s unlikely to get a clean sheet, but he will see his fair share of shots on target giving him the work load for saves.

West Brom Secondary Plays

Salomon Rondon, Forward, $6,300 (FD), $6,400 (DK) – If you want a player with some potential for a goal that will be under owned due to the matchup, then Rondon is your guy. He’s going to be overlooked because people will be expecting City to dominate the match, but Rondon should get some chances at shots against a City defense that has proven to be weak this season. Guardiola still hasn’t been able to imprint his style on the defense and that has resulted in lapses and mistakes at the back from everybody ranging from Stones, to Otamendi and even Claudio Bravo. Rondon can take advantage of these mistakes if given the opportunity and slot one home for a goal and a nice differential play.

Manchester City Top Plays

Kevin De Bruyne, Midfielder/Forward, $12,000 (FD), $8,800 (DK) – He’s facing a late fitness test Saturday and if he is healthy should be one of the top plays on the board for both teams. He’s projected for 5-10 crosses, 3-5 shots and should factor in the goal scoring in one way or another if City do find the back of the net. He’s also going to create chances for his teammates as the team is full of shot-loving attacking players, this puts KDB in a unique position to be one of the top cash plays in both FD and DK if he gets the start.

Sergio Aguero, Forward, $12,200 (FD), $8,600 – Earlier in the article, I gave a ringing endorsement to Zlatan Ibrahimovic despite him not scoring any goals in recent weeks. A less publicized dry spell belongs to Aguero who has now gone 8 matches without scoring for club or country. The drought has lasted for so long that there are rumors of him being shipped out from the club. For his part, Guardiola has put aside those rumors and stated that Aguero is here to stay. Aguero’s touches have dropped back in the pitch and he’s having to do more now than just score, this could be part of his problem this season so far. A matchup with West Brom isn’t ideal as Pulis can run a solid defensive side. However, I think this is a week that Aguero nets a couple of goals and puts a stop to these rumors. Moreover, the pricing on DK is so easy, you can fit him in with multiple other top options.

Claudio Bravo, Goalkeeper, $5,100 (FD), $5,600 (DK) – This is a FanDuel play more than anything else. Bravo is on the road, and the defense is prone to mistakes, however, he is a very strong keeper and can make saves against anybody. There really aren’t a lot of players to fear from West Brom outside of Rondon and Chadli. Bravo is very cheap on FD and is the eighth highest priced keeper starting that day and I suspect him to have the 3rd or 4th highest fantasy point total when the day is done putting him at a good value.

Manchester City Secondary Plays

Raheem Sterling, Midfielder/Forward, $9,500 (FD), $7,800 (DK) – If you want to get away from KDB or Aguero and get a low owned option on this squad that has the same potential and is cheaper on FD, then Sterling is a great option for that. If he gets the start on the wing he’ll contribute in shots and has potential for a goal. He’s a tournament play only as he won’t offer much else outside of goals and shots on target. If you want another option, also consider David Silva or Leroy Sane if they get the starts.

Nolito, Forward, $7,500 (FD), $7,000 (DK) – Nolito will likely come off the bench and that makes him a pure speculative tournament play. If you’re running 10-30 lineups I can see you taking a flier on him. He is unique however in that he is very capable of scoring goals in a short period. He might also get the start this weekend since City are facing Barcelona later this week on Tuesday making this a good opportunity for squad rotation.

Crystal Palace vs Liverpool

Crystal Palace						Liverpool
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				410						-138
				W W W D L L						W W W W D W
				3-2-4						6-2-1
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
15.56	4.00	13.11	7.56	29.33	21.78	18.33	6.44	7.89	4.67	17.89	15.00
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Cabaye, Gayle, Wickham		Cabaye, Puncheon, Jedinak, Ward, Delaney		Townsend, Puncheon, Cabaye, Ledley		Milner, Benteke, Henderson, Sturridge, Coutinho, Moreno		Philippe Coutinho, Lallana		Milner, Lallana, Coutinho, Henderson

Palace have been having trouble finishing, which is a trademark of Benteke led offenses. In their last match they looked like they were on their way to out-classing Leicester, but ended up conceding three goals and getting a late consolation. This week they face Liverpool who have been a very tough squad in general this season. Palace have failed to keep a clean sheet this season which limits the upside of their keeper Mandanda. They do however possess some plays to target in the midfield and forward positions. Liverpool on the other hand have not lost a match since week 2 of the season against Burnley, and have continued to dominate the opposition in their recent matches including defeating Tottenham in the midweek EFL cup fixture. They come into this matchup with the upper hand and looking to walk away from South London with all three points.

Crystal Palace Top Plays

Scott Dann, Defender, $8,100 (FD), $3,600 (DK) – The central defender comes in as a viable cash option on FD and a cheap punt defender on DK. He’s one of the more pricier defenders on FD, but he comes with a solid floor where he’s going to fill up the stat sheet on the defensive side. Moreover, he also adds some defensive stats that could be useful on DK as he can intercept and tackle and with Palace likely playing on their heels in this one, Dann could be a good value defensive option.

Andros Townsend, Midfielder, $8,000 (FD), $8,300 (DK) – Townsend is a good option this weekend who will go overlooked as the team plays against a tough tough Liverpool squad. Townsend is normally a cash option on DK but this week I’ll drop him to a tournament only option. I don’t expect him to get the usual number of crosses he gets but he should get 5+ crosses and maybe a shot or two and that can result in a decent outing. If he can convert one of those shots into a goal then you’re one step up on the competition with a low owned player who scored a goal.

Crystal Palace Secondary Plays

Christian Benteke, Forward, $6,200 (FD), $7,600 (DK) – NARRATIVE STREET strikes here this week. Benteke was shipped off from Liverpool after disappointing fans last season. He played just 29 games for Liverpool in the Premier League and started 14 of them and in those matches he scored 9 goals and had 3 assists. So far in just 7 starts with Palace he has 3 goals and will likely try to score against his former team here this week. He’s low priced and will be low owned. I do like him for tournaments, and would even pair him with Zaha or Townsend or Puncheon if he starts.

Martin Kelly ($3,900 FD, $3,900 DK)/Ezekiel Fryers ($4,000, $3,700), Defender – One of these two will start at full back and at this bargain bin price you could do worse. They carry more value on DK, and I prefer Kelly over Fryers, but if only one of them starts, then I’ll be locking him into my lineups and spending my salary cap elsewhere.

Liverpool Top Plays

Phillipe Coutinho, Midfielder, $10,300 (FD), $8,400 (DK) – Coutinho has been in great form in recent weeks with 5 straight matches with at least 20 fantasy point son FD. He’s depressed in price on DK and makes for an excellent late game play. There isn’t much to say other than he’s able to provide crosses, shots, goals, tackles, and create chances for his team. Liverpool have been playing some of the best football in the league and you’ll do well to get him in your lineups.

Jordan Henderson, Midfielder, $8,800 (FD), $5,700 (DK) – Likely a FD option only, but Henderson makes for an interesting play. When most people might target Wanyama, Pogba or Capoue on FanDuel, Henderson will remain underowned, but he’s projected for 12 points on DK and 29 points on FD this weekend and makes for a great pivot from these likely higher owned options.

James Milner, Defender/Midfielder, $9,600 (FD/M), $7,000 (DK/D) – Milner is an interesting option as he’s ranked in the midfield for FanDuel and as a defender on DraftKings. He’s the set piece taker on this team and delivers corners and crosses as part of the attack. Because of his slotting on the field at the full back position he does get a fair amount of clearances, tackles and interceptions. He also averages close to 50 passes a game and creates many chances for his teammates. FanDuel projections have him at 41 points, while DK projections slot him in at 21 points. He’s an elite option for both sites and would fit in for your cash and tournament lineups.

Liverpool Secondary Plays

Roberto Firmino, Forward, $9,100 (FD), $8,200 (DK) – Firmino has been playing as a false 9 for this team in recent weeks and he’s been tremendous in this role. In his last 7 matches on Fanduel he did not go below 22 fantasy points with a peak of 61 fantasy points when he scored a brace against Leicester. A matchup with Palace that is suffering from some injuries and hasn’t kept a clean sheet all season means that there will be goals here. I love a lot of Liverpool players because of this, but be wary of locking them in on Fanduel as this is a late start matchup and there is no late swap on fanduel. Sturridge did start as a forward in a 4-3-1-2 formation and scored twice in the English Football League Cup. So there is a chance that Firmino drops down to the wing or as an CAM which lowers his goal expectation a little bit. Regardless, if the change happens, you won’t be able to take advantage of it on FD, but you will be able to make changes on DK

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