EPL Grind Down: Week 12

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2017-01-11 20:06:29

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The final international break is over and most teams have their players back in one piece. Of course, as with every international break, there are always some injuries that will threaten to derail the progress of a team or their momentum headed into the break. So be sure to watch out for players with long travel arrangements (such as those who played in South America, Africa or Asia last week) and potentially avoid these players in your lineups even if they do get the start as there is no guarantee they will be fresh or even finish off the match with the full 90 minutes.

This week we have seven matchups on the main Saturday slate on both Fanduel and DraftKings. This Grind Down should guide you and help you prepare for the slate and give you the tools you need to make informed decisions when the lineups are officially released an hour before lock. Of course, once those lineups are released, I’ll be hanging out in the marketplace answering any questions you might have and I’ll be right there right up to lineup lock. So hop on over, there are some strategy pieces, a rankings of all the players, some projections for both team and players on both DK and FD!

And if you’ve got something you like or something you dont like about our soccer content here on RotoGrinders, feel free to leave a comment on here, or send me a message on twitter.

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City

Crystal Palace						Manchester City
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				533						-179
				W D L L L L						W L D D W D
				3-2-6						7-3-1
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
14.82	4.27	13.55	8.18	29.09	20.82	17.91	6.09	8.55	4.82	20.45	15.45
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Cabaye, Gayle, Wickham		Cabaye, Puncheon, Jedinak, Ward, Delaney		Townsend, Puncheon, Cabaye, Ledley		Aguero, De Bruyne, Kolarov		Kolarov, De Bruyne, Silva		De Bruyne, Silva, Kolarov, Navas, Sterling

Palace enter this matchup as losers in their last 4 matches and just 4 points out of 18 in their last six. They face a Manchester City team that had a good pair of matchups with a 4-0 win away over WBA and a 3-1 win over Barcelona in the Champions League, only to be derailed by a 1-1 draw against Middlesbrough right before the international break. Palace on the other hand has been showing some offensive teeth with scoring five goals in their last three matches, despite losing all of them. Over the international break, Palace lost Steve Mandanda to injury as he exited the match with Ivory Coast after picking up a knee injury. It is expected that Wayne Hennessey will deputize in goal, the good news for Palace fans is that Hennessey has been playing in goal for Wales in their international fixtures. City have some injury scares of their own, with Fernando, Kompany and Sagna all being assessed prior to the matchup on Saturday, not to mention the potential squad rotation with a good number of City players having had to travel far distances for their international commitments.

Crystal Palace Top Plays

Wayne Hennessey, Goalkeeper, $3,600 (DK), $4,900 (FD) – Hennessey gets the nod for one of the top goalkeepers to target on DraftKings as he is very cheap and is likely to face plenty of shots against his goal which could lead to a big night of shots on target and saves from a prolific offensive team such as Manchester City.

Yohann Cabaye, Midfielder, $6,200 (DK), $7,400 (FD) – If you think that City will command the possession (they will) then you’ll also think that the defensive midfield for Palace will be busy, and that’s what makes Cabaye a viable option as he’s going to have to step up and play lots of holding midfield complete with tackles, interceptions, and blocks. This elevates his value on FanDuel and for a cheap price, he’s worth consideration and might even be a high floor option.

Crystal Palace Secondary Plays

Andros Townsend, Midfielder, $7,600 (DK), $7,600 (FD) – Townsend has been very active for recent weeks and will be underowned on account of City being a heavy favorite and for Palace having virtually no chance at scoring. However, the model shows that Townsend has potential for 5-8 crosses and 2-3 shots with about a 10% chance at a goal. This makes Townsend one of the tournament options you could consider if you’re building a large amount of lineups for Saturday.

Manchester City Top Plays

Kevin De Bruyne, Midfielder/Forward, $9,000 (DK), $11,900 (FD) – De Bruyne is the premiere cash play of the day with penalty kick upside, corners and crosses, chances created and assists and goals. He easily has a floor of 35 points on FD and 18 points on DK with an upside of more. De Bruyne should be in any cash team you build as there aren’t really any comparable options with as much certainty on this slate.

Manchester City Secondary Plays

Raheem Sterling, Midfielder/Forward, $8,100 (DK), $9,500 (FD) – This may end up being a Raheem Sterling week where the team looks to him to do a little bit more than he normally does given that plenty of his teammates up front had to travel long distances. Aguero is notorious for being less than stellar in the weeks following an international break (though, he did score a brace against Swansea earlier this season after an international break, but that was an outlier). While Nolito also had to travel far to South America to take part in Brazil’s World Cup Qualifiers. The belief here is that Sterling, De Bruyne, Silva and Gundogan will be heavily involved in the action. To me, that increases the potential for a Sterling goal or at least involvement in the offense in a bigger role than most weeks.

Everton vs Swansea

Everton						Swansea
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				-170						537
				L D D L W L						L L L D L L
				5-3-3						1-2-8
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
13.18	5.00	12.36	6.73	19.82	22.27	11.82	4.09	15.45	9.82	20.91	18.45
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Baines, Barkley, Mirallas		Barkley, Mirallas, Baines, Deulofeu		Mirallas, Baines,  Barkley, Deulofeu		Sigurdsson		Sigurdsson		Sigurdsson, Routledge, Stephen Kingsley

Everton enter this matchup after a long international break where they had plenty of time to lick their wounds following a massive 5-0 drubbing by Chelsea (who all of a sudden look like the defending champs they should have been last year). Everton have found themselves in a tough position after climbing up into the table, they now have slipped to seventh place after only a single win in their last six matches. The visit from Swansea, led by American manager Bobby Bradley should be a step for them to regain their winning ways and their confidence. Swansea on the other hand have a tough battle ahead of them as they find themselves in the relegation zone 6 points off the top with just 5 points total after 10 matches. Now boss Bob Bradley sees the concern and is working on implementing changes after taking over a few short weeks ago. It will likely be a while before he is fully capable of cementing his vision for the team, but you can argue that the long layoff helped his team more than anybody else. After the international break, the team doesn’t face many injury concerns, and Bradley will be looking to have close to a full squad (Ki did have to travel to Korea, so he may end up missing out). This matchup is very likely to end up with an Everton big win, but there is an outside chance that Swansea can surprise us and keep it close and put some pressure on the Toffees.

Everton Top Plays

Yannick Bolasie, Midfielder/Forward, $7,300 (DK), $5,800 (FD) – Bolasie might be the closest thing to a cash option on this team as he takes open play crosses for this team and Koeman has made it clear that he favors an attacking mentality that spaces the pitch and spreads the play wide. Bolasie’s unique skills make it very easy for him to excel in fantasy, and you can see that in his last few matches (outside of the Chelsea match), Bolasie has managed double digit fantasy points on DK and has a high floor that makes him a great play on DK, but his floor is a bit lower on FD as he doesn’t do a lot of the things that can elevate his FD score without scoring any goals.

Romelu Lukaku, Forward, $8,300 (DK), $10,300 (FD) – Lukaku is a great option for goals this week as he’s priced as the highest forward not from City or Liverpool and is facing a relatively easy matchup with Swansea potentially conceding multiple goals in this one.

Everton Secondary Plays

Ross Barkley, Midfielder, $7,500 (DK), $8,200 (FD) – Barkley has had an interesting time in recent weeks. He is out to prove himself for the English national team, but he didn’t make the squad in the last time out, and now has a period to build up his resume in preparation to get selected again in the new year. Barkley is an extremely talented youngster, and has had some good performances in recent weeks. His price is relatively low for what he can accomplish, and I think he’s got a chip on his shoulder to prove that he’s worthy of a roster spot on the English squad.

Swansea Top Plays

Gylfi Sigurdsson, Midfielder, $8,000 (DK), $8,200 (FD) – Gylfi is the primary penalty kick taker and corner kick taker for Swansea, and he’s worth consideration on this team if you think that Swansea can pull the upset this week. Siggy is a very talented player and can take over a match on his own or convert a free kick into a goal on just a single shot. He’s worth consideration for cash games, but there are some other options I would go to before I take him.

Swansea Secondary Plays

Lukasz Fabianski, Goalkeeper, $3,900 (DK), $5,400 (FD) – Fabianski should face a fair share of shots on target, and he also has a decent chance at a clean sheet against Everton who have had recent spells where they fail to score any goals despite being in favorable matchups. Chief among those who often fail at scoring is Lukaku. If you’re fading Lukaku, then rostering Fabianski might be a good idea.

Southampton vs Liverpool

Southampton						Liverpool
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				247						121
				W D W D L L						W W D W W W
				3-4-4						8-2-1
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
16.45	5.73	10.00	6.55	25.82	17.82	19.09	7.73	8.09	4.73	18.00	15.09
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Tadic, Bertrand, Rodriguez, Ward-Prowse, Davis		Tadic, Ward- Prowse, Redmond, Van Dijk		Ward-Prowse, Tadic,  Davis, Bertrand		Milner, Benteke, Henderson, Sturridge, Coutinho, Moreno		Philippe Coutinho, Lallana		Milner, Lallana, Coutinho, Henderson

This will be a very tough matchup for Southampton this week as they host the league leaders Liverpool. Southampton face an especially tough challenge after several mediocre performances that have seen them drop 10 points in their last 6 matches and leaving them in 10th place in the Premiership. Over the international break, Dusan Tadic suffered a broken nose, but he looks to face a late fitness test that may prove that he’s fit enough for the match with Liverpool. Speaking of Liverpool, they are enjoying a wonderful spell of good form right now, they can score a lot of goals, but they don’t keep a lot of clean sheets (their only one in six matches was in a 0-0 draw with Manchester United). The team did have a few key players travel to South America, Lallana had to have some scans following his return, and Firmino had a long flight back. Lallana suffered a knock with England, and the team will have some decisions to make Saturday morning. The trouble with Liverpool is always having too many options which makes fantasy selections difficult.

Southampton Top Plays

Fraser Forster, Goalkeeper, $4,400 (DK), $5,300 (FD) – Playing at home as a big underdog, puts Forster as a great play as a keeper. Facing a Liverpool squad that could be missing some of their key contributors, or at least have them as less than fully healthy plays could make Forster a uniquely low owned play as he’s not priced as cheap as other players, but at the same time, he carries a similarly high floor as anybody else.

Southampton Secondary Plays

Dusan Tadic, Midfielder, $7,600 (DK), $8,000 (FD) – Tadic comes in as a secondary play because of a broken nose suffered during his time with the Serbian national team. He’s still a very productive player and can deliver crosses and corners. He’s also one of the most active players on the field at any given time and Southampton rely on him heavily to dictate their offense and even score goals. Tadic has a decent floor of multiple crosses and some shots. Liverpool have shown to be slightly weak defensively and the Saints can look to take advantage of that.

Liverpool Breakdown

Liverpool Top Plays

James Milner, Defender/Midfielder, $6,400 (DK), $9,500 (FD) – Milner is listed as a defender on DK and a midfielder on FD. He’s more in play on DK than on FD because of his crossing ability and he’s probably going to be relied upon more heavily in this match if he gets the start this time around. At full back he doesn’t shy away from attacking and venturing forward and letting the center backs and defensive midfielders cover his tracks in case of a counter attack. And at just $6.4K on DK, he’s got a decently high floor and could make for a great cash and tournament play.

Sadio Mane, Midfielder/Forward, $8,500 (DK), $8,100 (FD) – With Firmino and Coutinho in question because of their long travel plans from South America, Mane might get the majority of the touches in this matchup and Klopp may try to push the ball through him and Milner. This gives Mane some upside with shots and potential for goals. He will be looking to use his pace to make noise for the Reds on the road and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being very productive in this matchup.

Liverpool Secondary Plays

Philippe Coutinho, Midfielder, $9,200 (DK), $10,600 (FD) – Despite not being 100% certain he’s going to play a full 90 minutes, it’s hard to discount Coutinho. He’s been playing excellent football lately and his skills have been shining through after scoring a goal for Brazil, making it 7 goals on the season with 7 assists across all competitions (International and club). Coutinho is a great play and would be a great play to consider if he gets the start, but since his start is uncertain, that’s why he gets a “maybe” from me today.

Stoke vs Bournemouth

Stoke						Bournemouth
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				129						241
				D D W W W D						W D W D L L
				3-4-4						3-3-5
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
12.00	3.45	14.18	8.73	19.27	21.73	12.64	3.82	14.55	8.09	18.27	19.64
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Bojan, Arnautovic, Adam, Walters		Shaqiri, Adam, Arnautovic		Shaqiri, Bojan, Adam, Arnautovic.		Wilson, Daniels,  Stanislas		Ibe, Arter, Gradel		King, Fraser, Gradel, Stanislas, Daniels

Stoke have been struggling with injuries in recent weeks as well as some suspensions, but they should be getting some of these key players back this time around with Shaqiri and Arnautovic returning. Arnautovic did play 180 minutes over the break with Austria adding some potential for fatigue, while there are some reports of Bony having an ankle problem, so be on the lookout for the starting XI here. Stoke went into the international break on a high note with 12 of their 13 points coming in their last 6 matches without a loss, they look to host Bournemouth and come away with a win. Bournemouth on the other hand didn’t have many players competing in International matches, so Eddie Howe will not have too many headaches from that. He does however need to improve their performances moving forward especially after a home loss to relegation favorites Sunderland 2-1. This match should favor Stoke, but projections show it as a close affair with the home team barely edging out the visitors.

Stoke Top Plays

Xherdan Shaqiri, Midfielder, $7,700 (DK), 7,300 (FD) – If Shaqiri gets the start again, he should be an automatic cash play as he takes corners and free kicks for Stoke and with them being favorites against Bournemouth, he should be getting plenty of opportunities in this one.

Stoke Secondary Plays

For Stoke, there is a question as to who starts at striker for the team. The team will likely employ a 4-2-3-1 which puts the striker position in play here as a good chance to score at home. Early indications are that it would be Wilfried Bony, $6,400 (DK), $4,800 (FD), which would put him as an outside chance at a goal in a tournament. However, I wouldn’t be trusting any striker on this team in a cash game.

Bournemouth Top Plays

Simon Francis, Defender, $3,300 (DK), $7,200 (FD) – If Francis gets the start at full back, he becomes one of the more popular plays to target at defense on both sites given his potential for offensive output. With the suspension of Smith, Francis should take his spot in the wing and with that he gets more chances to cross and create chances for his teammates. At just $3,300, he’s a good pick on DK, but at $7,200, he’s more of a stretch option on FD.

Bournemouth Secondary Plays

Dan Gosling, Midfielder, $3,900 (DK), $5,100 (FD) – Gosling is very productive if he gets the start up front. There will be some players moving up from the bench, my guess is that Gosling will be one of those players who will get a shot at helping Bournemouth win this matchup, and if he does, he’s cheap enough to consider in all formats.

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