EPL Grind Down Week 12 - Page 2

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2016-11-19 01:44:19

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Sunderland vs Hull

Sunderland						Hull
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				112						302
				L D L L L W						L L L L L W
				1-2-8						3-1-7
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
8.91	2.45	19.00	11.18	16.18	22.64	8.64	2.64	21.55	11.91	16.09	23.55
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Borini, Defoe, Watmore		Khazri, Van Aanholt		Khazri, Januzaj, Gooch, van Aanholt		Hernandez, Snodgrass		Snodgrass		Snodgrass, Huddlestone

Sunderland get to welcome the worst defense in the league this week to the Stadium of Light. Both these teams got a much needed win in their last matchup before the international break, and both teams come into this one without much concern health-wise from the international break as none of their players suffered anything significant. Nevertheless, this is a matchup between two minnows who are both struggling to get points. Historically, these matchups tend to favor the home side, but Sunderland have never beaten Hull and will be looking to break that streak this week. Hull, in the meanwhile, got their first win since August last time out against Southampton, thanks to the return of Robert Snodgrass (more on him later). There shouldn’t be a lot of goals in this one, but it should be close enough to warrant some selections in your squads.

Sunderland Top Plays

Jermaine Defoe, Forward, $6,500 (DK), $6,300 (FD) – The long time Premier League veteran is looking for his 150th premier league goal in almost 16 seasons. Lucky for him, he faces Hull City who have been the worst defensive team in the league so far this season. Defoe also managed a goal and an assist as Sunderland managed their first win of the season last time out and they are favorites here giving Defoe a chance at scoring his milestone goal.

Sunderland Secondary Plays

Patrick Van Aanholt, Defender, $5,000 (DK), $6,900 (FD) – If I had to pick a defender from this team to target it would be Van Aanholt who doesn’t really play as a defender at all. He’s a leader on this team and likely always stepping up on the offense to assist on the attack. He’s also one of the main players who takes corners for the squad. Look for Van Aanholt to deliver some fantasy output, but I wouldn’t expect anything beyond 10-15 fantasy points.

Hull Top Plays

Robert Snodgrass, Midfielder, $7,100 (DK), $7,200 (FD) – With Snodgrass back last week, Hull was able to get their first win in a while as they managed to control the match (surprisingly) against Southampton. The trend with this team though is that they routinely under perform on the road as they only scored 2 goals in their last three road matches, and conceded 12 in that span. Against Sunderland, I am not worried about them conceding 3+ goals, but I do think they’ll be able to score, and Snodgrass is the likely contributor.

Hull Secondary Plays

Curtis Davies, Defender, $3,500 (DK), $8,300 (FD) – On DK, Davies may make a great option at defense. He’s priced at just 3.5K and has the potential to get 10 points through tackles and interceptions. This makes him doubly important on FanDuel as he can double up on points for clearances, blocked shots and passes.

Watford vs Leicester

Watford						Leicester
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				185						176
				L D W D W L						L D L W D L
				4-3-4						3-3-5
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
11.36	3.91	14.91	8.09	17.64	25.00	10.55	2.91	14.55	8.09	18.09	20.36
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Deeney, Ighalo		Abdi		Watson, Abdi, Capoue, Holebas		Mahrez, Vardy		Mahrez, Drinkwater, Gray		Mahrez, Drinkwater, Gray

Watford will look to bounce back after a humiliating defeat 6-1 to Liverpool on the road right before the break. And while the team has had a chance to lick it’s wounds, they are now faced with the prospect of welcoming back the defending Champs. Though, these champs have looked anything but. Leicester has had some serious problems this season getting results in the Premier League and seem more focused on the Champions League instead with the stated goal of getting out of the group stages and making noise in the knock out rounds. So far so good on that front, except now they find themselves in 14th place in the Premier League and just 2 points out of the relegation zone. This matchup on the road with Watford could be the perfect opportunity, however, Watford won’t make it easy as they’ve been a decent team at home. Neither team should really face much trouble with their lineups due to injuries from the international break, however, Shinji Okazaki is likely to not play after playing in Japan last week, while the African players were all done with their matches earlier in the week and made it back in time to practice with their squads.

Watford Top Plays

Costel Pantilimon, Goalkeeper, $4,600 (DK), $5,500 (FD) – The home keeper on a team that is an underdog, Pantilimon gets the nod this week as one of the more likely keepers to have a big day. He’s facing a Leicester squad though that hasn’t been giving the best offensive performances and has only scored 13 goals so far. This only adds to the appeal of Pantilimon as he has a chance at a clean sheet.

Nordin Amrabat, Midfielder, $5,700 (DK), $5,200 (FD) – Amrabat has 20 crosses in his last two matches for Watford and looks to have taken over the crossing duties and corner kick duties. Against Leicester, most teams have enjoyed close to 60% possession while at home, and while Watford have usually held 45% possession as the home team, The projections show this as a 50-50 possession matchup meaning that Amrabat will have more opportunities to deliver crosses against a team that is projected to allow 21 crosses on Saturday

Watford Secondary Plays

Daryl Janmaat, Defender, $4,500 (DK), $5,500 (FD) – Janmaat is a very offensive minded defender with an eye for attacking. He’s going to get more of an offensive role this week without Holebas (who is suspended), though, admittedly, some of that role could just switch over to Amrabat. I would caution against taking both Janmaat and Amrabat on the same team, as only one of them will be capable of performing to the level you expect, but for their price tag, you won’t expect too much from them.

Troy Deeney, Midfielder/Forward, $6,400 (DK), $6,300 (FD) – Deeney is the likely scorer on Watford against a Leicester team that has allowed 7 goals in their last 4 matches and hasn’t kept a clean sheet in the premier league since early October. Deeney hasn’t scored since early October and will be looking to break that habit this week.

Leicester Top Plays

Riyad Mahrez, Midfielder/Forward, $8,000 (DK), $8,100 (FD) – Mahrez gets the nod as the most likely fantasy contributor on this team because of his role in the offense. The ball runs through him, and last season he picked up the pace around this time and found himself performing at a very high level. From November till Christmas last year he found himself with 6 goals and 3 assists as Leicester started cementing themselves as the eventual champions of the Premier League. So now that the team is facing the challenge of staying in the top half of the table, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mahrez elevate his play once again to guide them there.

Leicester Secondary Plays

Jamie Vardy, Forward, $6,800 (DK), $6,800 (FD) – He had a spectacular goal for England over the break that had me watching it again and again! He appears to be in form and really looking to be in the right place at the right time. This makes him an excellent choice for Leicester especially at his very depressed price of just $6,800 on both DK and FD.

Islam Slimani, Forward, $7,100 (DK), $7,300 (FD) – If Slimani gets the start at the second forward spot in a 4-4-2, he’s going to be in a good position to deliver for Leicester. The biggest risk for him is that outside of scoring, you can’t rely on him for much else fantasy wise, but he does give his team an edge if he does get the start and I like Leicester better as an offensive team with Slimani partnering up front with Vardy.

Tottenham vs West Ham

Tottenham						West Ham
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				-201						653
				W W D D D D						L D W W L D
				5-6-0						3-2-6
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
17.73	5.64	10.27	6.36	18.91	16.36	14.55	2.73	13.27	8.91	21.64	18.82
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Kane, Chadli		Eriksen, Lamela, Kane, Walker		Eriksen, Lamela		Noble, Carroll		Payet, Zarate, Noble, Cresswell, Valencia		Payet, Zarate, Lanzini, Noble, Cresswell,

When West Ham visit Tottenham they’ll be trying to overcome the leagues strongest defense and possibly the strongest defense in all of Europe. Throughout this season, Tottenham have managed to hold 8 opponents to clean sheets and have only conceded more than 1 goal twice in all competitions. Nevertheless, they enter this matchup on the road having conceded goals in four straight matches, so maybe the sheen is a bit off the defensive prowess of this Spurs side. Where they’ve run into trouble this season however is the ability to score goals. With only 15 goals in the premier league in 10 matches, they are on pace for 51 goals on the season, and that is off the pace they set last year with 69 goals on the season. Will they turn it around? West Ham have been an easy draw early in the season with a run earlier last month where they allowed 14 goals in 4 matches. Since then, they’ve tightened things up a bit and will look to try to hold Tottenham to minimal damage. Over the international break, Andre Ayew saw a full 90 minutes with Ghana but failed to produce a goal away to Egypt, while Payet also saw a full compliment of minutes over two matches and could be fatigued in this one. On Tottenham, there is concern over the fitness of Lloris and Eriksen, Janssen suffered a concussion, Kane had to leave the England team due to his fitness, and Son had to travel all the way to Korea to play and featured for 90 minutes in one match. Overall, Pochettino has some decisions to make ahead of Saturday, so be very careful who you decide to roster from this late match.

Tottenham Top Plays

Danny Rose, Defender, $5,600 (DK), $7,800 (FD) – If Eriksen ends up sitting this one out, Rose becomes the most likely source of open play crosses down the left side. The real concern is what to do with him if Son and Eriksen both play, as they can monopolize the open play touches, but with their fitness being a doubt after long international break duties, taking Rose is a major question mark especially if there is no guarantee whether the team would be at full strength. Also, worth consideration is that the Spurs have a midweek Champions League matchup, so they could end up without much of a choice if they want to rest up in preparation.

Tottenham Secondary Plays

Harry Kane, Forward, $7,900 (DK), $9,900 (FD) – He’s very cheap on DK considering his potential, and while he did get rested while playing for England, there is no reason to believe he won’t feature against West Ham who he can easily score against with their shaky defense. Taking Kane isn’t a bad choice here.

West Ham Top Plays

None

West Ham Secondary Plays

Dimitri Payet, Midfielder/Forward, $8,900 (DK), $10,200 (FD) – Payet is always in play especially on DK where he averages double digit fantasy points. However, this week against Tottenham I am likely fading him and avoiding him completely. He does carry some limited upside with penalties and corners however and thus is worth a mention. However, you can get the same floor/upside combo with other players at cheaper or similar prices.

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