EPL Grind Down: Gameweek 3
Welcome back to another edition of the EPL Grind Down. This week, we’ve added some extra stats in the tables below, right now you’ll see the following stats for each team: Shots per game, Shots on Target per game, Shots Against per game, Shots Against from inside the box per game, crosses per game, and crosses against per game. In addition the table will include the odds for the team to win (European decimal odds) as well as the record of the team over the last 6 matches as well as the overall record on the season. If you’d like to see any changes or additions to this content please feel free to leave me a message on here or contact me on twitter.
This analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Goals aren’t always easy to predict, but following the trends and making the right choices can lead you to success and will win you money over time.
Chelsea vs Burnley
| Chelsea | Burnley | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 1.275 | 13.76 | ||||||||||
| WW | LW | ||||||||||
| 2-0-0 | 1-0-1 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.50 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 3.50 | 22.50 | 10.00 | 6.50 | 2.50 | 21.50 | 10.00 | 13.00 | 28.00 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Hazard, Oscar, Fabregas, Costa | Willian, Oscar, Fabregas, Matic | Willian, Fabregas | Andre Gray, Sam Vokes | Dean Marney, Johann-Berg Gudmundsson | David Jones | ||||||
The Hazard redemption tour continues with a visit from Burnley this week to Stamford Bridge. Chelsea have secured full points through two weeks this season thanks to late game-saving goals from Diego Costa. Burnley on the other hand have had mixed results with losing to Swansea in their home opener and beating Liverpool on the road. Expect this match to be very one sided with Chelsea dominating possession and looking for openings to try to break through a decent Burnley defense.
Chelsea Breakdown
They survived a scare in the EFL cup and new coach Antonio Conte got to celebrate once more with a third successive win since he took over his tenure as head coach at Chelsea. The team is playing a different brand of football than they have the last few seasons. With the focus on controlled possession and switching that opens up the shots from right outside the box, the team is willing to take more chances than they have under Jose Mourinho, at the same time, the discipline is allowing for them to remain as a solid defensive team. Of course, they are not without their warts as they still have to rely on the likes of John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic on their defense, but nobody’s perfect.
Chelsea Top Plays
Eden Hazard, Midfielder/Forward, $8,600 – At such an increased price tag, some will be hesitant to roster him this week, however, Hazard has proven in the early goings this season that he’s worth the investment due to his increased productive involvement in the Chelsea offense. He continues to be in the top 3 in touches in the final third in the league, as he was most of last year, except this time, he’s producing results. This can be attributed to Conte who’s figured out how to utilize his skills without making him disappear in a motion/flow offense. Hazard had no goals or assists last week, but still managed 16 DK points. If he contributes similarly this week and scores a goal, he’ll be closing in on 30 DK points and could be one of the top scorers on the week.
Chelsea Secondary Plays
Michy Batshuayi, Forward, $7,100 – He’s a long shot to get you some returns, however, he’s been great for Chelsea with an assist and a goal off the bench. He also scored a brace in the midweek fixture with Bristol Rovers making him the top scorer of the team so far this season. He might start if Conte decides to go to a 4-4-2 formation or a more unconventional 4-2-4 as was experimented with in the pre-season. Batshuayi would make for a great play if he gets the start, and a sneaky pivot if he doesn’t. Costa is also a good play, with two goals scored so far, but if both start, Bats is slightly cheaper and has similar (if not more) upside.
Branislav Ivanovic, Defender, $5,100 – I don’t normally like to take full backs that are priced above $4,500, but Ivanovic has a knack for scoring goals or recording assists when he’s in an offensive groove. How do you determine if a player is in an offensive groove? Take a look at their numbers in the last two matches, 29 out of 59 touches were forward passes in the final third against West Ham, and while that number dipped against Watford, he did end up with 74 total touches. In the matchup with Burnley I expect more of the same.
Burnley Breakdown
They had a tremendous win over Liverpool last weekend in which they’ve converted on two of their three shots. Andre Gray scored and assisted, and while he does have a FA misconduct hearing looming over him, I suspect that whatever decision the FA goes with, will be decided after the Saturday matches. So there is little chance of him being named a starter, then subsequently banner before the match. In other news, the team will play a reserved style of football. They will give up possession in favor of a quick counter attack in order to try to exploit Chelsea in the same way they exploited Liverpool. Will Conte fall for it the way Klopp did last week?
Burnley Top Plays
Andre Gray, Forward, $7,700 – Gray’s pace makes him very appealing in the style of play that Burnley will employ in this matchup. They will rely on him to go out on the run and try to lead the counter attack and catch Chelsea’s defense on their heels. He’s got a striking partner that is very good at finishing, so the assist is also an option (as we saw last week). The team is coming off a match in the EFL cup in the midweek in which they lost on a 120th minute goal, so be on the look out there. Gray came on in the 67th minute for Vokes, so both of them should be relatively fresh.
Burnley Secondary Plays
Tom Heaton, Goalkeeper, $4,200 – I don’t like Heaton as much as I liked him last week when he was a home underdog. This week with the team on the road and fatigued from the midweek matchup I suspect that Heaton carries less upside and will likely not hold a road clean sheet. Especially if Chelsea starts Batshuayi then they will be signifying their offensive mindedness going into this. However, Heaton has a track record of defending his goal well so far this season and he will face plenty of shots on target from a Chelsea team that might take this Burnley squad for granted.
Steven Defour, Midfielder, $4,900 – If you were to try to target a second player that wasn’t named Gray or Vokes from the Burnley outfield, I would recommend Steven Defour because of his corner kick duties and his ability to deliver crosses in. Both of which are important factors in creating a strong DFS team. However, the upside is very limited with Defour so I would only roster him if you find yourself struggling for a cheap option in order to roster some more expensive players.
Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth
| Crystal Palace | Bournemouth | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 2.34 | 3.36 | ||||||||||
| LL | LL | ||||||||||
| 0-0-2 | 0-0-2 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.00 | 3.00 | 16.50 | 9.00 | 26.00 | 21.00 | 8.50 | 4.00 | 13.50 | 8.50 | 19.50 | 14.50 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Cabaye, Gayle, Wickham | Cabaye, Puncheon, Jedinak, Ward, Delaney | Townsend, Puncheon, Cabaye, Ledley | Wilson, Daniels, Stanislas | Arter, Gradel | Gradel, Stanislas, Daniels, Arter, Pugh | ||||||
In a matchup of two teams that have 0 points, they’re both looking to secure some points in this matchup. The odds slightly favor Crystal Palace being the home team, however, it should be a close one. This is a matchup that could feature plenty of action from both sides. Or it could just be a terrible affair of soccer with two bad teams trying to make way for each other.
Crystal Palace Breakdown
They’re two time losers and managed to get their first win of the young season in the EFL Cup against Blackpool. New transfer Benteke got the start in the match, but he was subbed off at the half and reserve Connor Wickham scored the team’s second goal of the night. They will likely play a 4-2-3-1 formation with Wickham, Zaha, Townsend and Puncheon making up the attacking four. They will still be missing Bakary Sako, which cements the role of Zaha and Townsend.
Crystal Palace Top Plays
Andros Townsend, Midfielder, $7,100 – With no goals and no assists on the season and still averaging close to 20 fantasy points per game, Townsend is the number one option for cash games this season. In his first home game with his new team, he managed 9 crosses, 6 shots, 5 tackles won and 3 interceptions. His work rate is one of the highest in the league which guarantees that the ball goes through him when the team has possession. I expect Townsend to continue to be a very viable cash game option this week.
Crystal Palace Secondary Plays
Joel Ward, Defender, $4,400 – If you think that Crystal Palace can hold an offensively challenged Bournemouth from scoring, then you should take a look at the full back position. Joel Ward has potential for goal scoring as well as providing some crosses and even an assist if one of his crosses finds the head of Connor Wickham who can finish from the air.
Bournemouth Breakdown
This is a team that has struggled offensively, with Callum Wilson not returning to his previous form from early last season before his season ending injury. However, with Max Gradel available, there might be a change in formation this week, or maybe Gradel joins Wilson in a 4-4-1-1. Gradel was fantasy gold last season for a bit with a cheap price tag and corner kick duties as well as being a consistent crosser. Bournemouth might open up their attack this weekend, and if they are successful, that would see some offensive returns.
Bournemouth Top Plays
Max Gradel, Midfield/Forward, $7,300 – For GPPs, if you want to avoid Andros Townsend, I would go with Gradel as he can provide the same upside. In his only EPL action this season, he came off the bench and in just 9 minutes was able to record 4 crosses, 1 shot, and a tackle for 6 fantasy points. Of course, that rate won’t continue all season, however, you can expect him to try to jumpstart this offense and give them something to go with against a less-than-stellar Crystal Palace side. The only concern is how fast his price rose, however, I think he has the potential to meet the demand from his new price tag.
Bournemouth Secondary Plays
Charlie Daniels, Defender $5,500 – I am unsure how the role of Daniels will change with the introduction of Gradel to this lineup. However, Daniels has been the top corner kick taker and the top crosser on this team without Gradel. The best I can assume is they will split duties with Daniels supporting the offense. Because of his price tag of $5,500 for a defender and this uncertainty, Daniels is a GPP option only for me.
Everton vs Stoke
| Everton | Stoke | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 1.729 | 5.55 | ||||||||||
| DW | DL | ||||||||||
| 1-1-0 | 0-1-1 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.50 | 6.50 | 12.00 | 8.00 | 14.50 | 19.50 | 10.00 | 2.00 | 12.00 | 8.50 | 19.00 | 20.50 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Baines, Barkley, Mirallas | Barkley, Mirallas, Baines, Deulofeu | Mirallas, Baines, Barkley, Deulofeu | Bojan, Arnautovic, Adam, Walters | Adam, Shaqiri, Arnautovic, Ireland | Bojan, Shaqiri, Adam, Affelay, Ireland, Arnautovic. | ||||||
Everton and Stoke should be an intriguing matchup with the home team a big favorite according to the odds makers. Stoke is a team that likes to cross the ball, while Everton have tended to keep it grounded so far this season. Everton have also been one of the best passing teams in the opponents final third while Stoke are decidedly average so far. I expect that this matchup will end up being a very close one with Everton breaking through and scoring a couple of goals. I do not think there will be clean sheets in this one so feel free to take players from either team.
Everton Breakdown
With new coach Ronald Koeman still dealing with injuries, the team is still undecided on their starting lineups with uncertainties regarding Lukaku, Galloway and Bolasie. While Seamus Coleman will be out. His front four remain a doubt at the moment with only Mirallas and Barkley as the guaranteed starts at the moment. While Deulofeu may lose his starting spot if Bolasie gets a start and is deemed healthy.
Everton Top Plays
Kevin Mirallas, Midfielder/Forward, $5,600 – One of the biggest factors for success in daily fantasy is identifying inefficiencies in pricing. When it appears, and the sites don’t adjust for a change in role, we the players can take advantage. Through the first two games, Mirallas has taken over the corner kicks for Everton and given the amount of crosses/corners that Stoke allow, this increases Mirallas’ significantly.
Mason Holgate, Defender, $3,300 – Holgate is getting the start at full back until Seamus Coleman returns. And in the meantime, his bargain bin price of $3,300 is a relative steal that is worth every penny. Last week he managed an assist as Everton beat West Brom, and ended up with 12 fantasy points. If he can repeat half that point haul, then he’s worth his salary.
Everton Secondary Plays
Romelu Lukaku, Forward, $9,000 – He’s the fifth highest priced player in the game, and he hasn’t accomplished anything this season yet. However, Lukaku is a top notch forward who can break through at any time. He really will be under the radar due to his high price and most people will gravitate to Ibrahimovic, Sanchez, or one of the two Leicester stars before they consider Lukaku. This is our chance to get ahead of the crowd.
Stoke Breakdown
Stoke are not starting off the season very well. They lost one match and drew another. They drew an away match with the newly promoted Middlesbrough and then were demolished by Manchester City in a 4-1 defeat. They did get their first win of the season in the midweek EFL cup action in a 4-0 win against league 2 side Stevenage. There is still some doubts for Xherdan Shaqiri and he will undergo a late fitness test. If Shaqiri does start, then he counts as a top option on Saturday.
Stoke Top Plays
Phil Bardsley, Defender, $3,700 – Bardsley continues to be a viable option on defense. With his ability to get tackles, crosses, and interceptions. He’s also priced super cheap, and moreover, he scored a goal in the midweek matchup so his confidence will be very high.
Joe Allen, Midfielder, $3,900 – Allen is in play if Shaqiri doesn’t start, as he was on corner kick duty and that resulted in him accumulating 7 crosses last week against Manchester City. Allen is very cheap and could be a huge cog in your team to facilitate fitting in several of the high priced star players.
Stoke Secondary Plays
Marko Arnautovic, Midfield/Forward, $6,900 – Arnautovic is a player with flair and tremendous skill. However, he doesn’t always show his full potential. When he does he is very valuable both in real football, and in fantasy. He’s actually been performing decently even though the results haven’t been showing through. He’s had 6 shots so far this season on just 38 touches in the final third. His offensive contributions will come with time, and without Shaqiri, the team needs to figure out how they are going to score goals against a premier league side.
Leicester vs Swansea
| Leicester | Swansea | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 1.763 | 5.23 | ||||||||||
| LD | WL | ||||||||||
| 0-1-1 | 1-0-1 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.00 | 3.00 | 13.50 | 6.00 | 14.00 | 17.50 | 20.00 | 5.50 | 11.00 | 7.50 | 33.00 | 14.00 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Mahrez, Vardy | Mahrez, Drinkwater, Gray | Mahrez, Drinkwater, Gray | Sigurdsson | Sigurdsson | Sigurdsson, Routledge, Stephen Kingsley | ||||||
Leicester are starting their title defense with a bit of a struggle as they lost a match on the road to newly promoted Hull City, and managed to draw a point from Arsenal at the King Power. Swansea meanwhile have had two easy matches to start the season with Burnley and Hull. Surprisingly, it was Hull that managed to beat these two teams in their opening weekend, so now they find themselves facing each other.
Leicester Breakdown
Leicester are playing their preferred 4-4-1-1 with Vardy leading the charge and Okazaki slotted right behind him. Both Albrighton and Mahrez provide the plays from the midfield with King and Drinkwater acting as defensive door stops to hold the ball and facilitate the attack. Kaspar Schmeichel is one of the most talented keepers in the league and is always worth a roster spot, however, his price is too prohibitive this week.
Leicester Top Plays
Riyadh Mahrez, Midfielder/Forward, $9,900 – Yes, his price is extremely high, and yes, he only reaches value if he scores a goal. However, I think this week, you’ll see Vardy and Mahrez scoring goals for Leicester as the team notches their first win of the young season. Mahrez is on penalty kicks and is a superb dribbler and can handle the ball in tight spaces. These skills are instrumental in my considering him one of the top midfield plays of the week regardless of price.
Leicester Secondary Plays
Kaspar Schmeichel, Goalkeeper, $5,200 – I want to do a little exercise. Go to the lineup building page on DraftKings, and select “All Games” and go to the “Goalkeepers” tab, and count how many keepers you see before you read Schmeichel’s name. Go ahead, I’ll wait.
…
Are you back? Good! Now, do you see that Schmeichel is severely underpriced for a goalkeeper who will probably see a good number of shots and is a home favorite? At the 10th highest priced keeper, Schmeichel is a steal no matter who he faces. Because of Schmeichel’s skills and excellent reflexes, I anticipate a number of save opportunities from headers. However, there is still a chance that he concedes a goal or two from these headers to offset any saves he may produce.
Swansea Breakdown
They’ve been the biggest crossing team this season in what appears to be a strategy shift with the new manager. With Fernando Llorente’s height and abilities in the box, they’ve attempted 33 crosses per match opposed to 19.6 crosses from last season. Obviously, the numbers will normalize eventually, however, the trend is there, and is worth considering. Swansea are underdogs in this matchup, but are capable of pulling off the upset or at least making the match interesting. This will be a fun one to watch.
Swansea Top Plays
Gylfi Sigurdsson, Midfielder, $9,100 – You can’t talk about a team that takes a ton of crosses without recommending their top crossing player in Gylfi Sigurdsson. Siggy takes the corners, crosses and penalty kicks. In his first full match of the season he managed 11 crosses, 4 shots and 16 fantasy points. Expect more of that to come with the assists starting to pile up once Llorente finds his way to the back of the net.
Fernando Llorente, Forward, $7,100 – I know I recommended Schmeichel earlier in this piece, however, you must realize that for Schmeichel to have a chance at a big day from saves, Llorente will have to take plenty of shots including plenty of high percentage headers from crosses and corners. You should not put both Llorente and Schmeichel on the same team, but Llorente has the potential to score a goal in any match and this week could be the one that he opens up his premier league goal account for the season.
Swansea Secondary Plays
Kyle Naughton, Defender, $3,700 – He’s going to be very highly owned, and would be a very popular option in cash games. However, the shine and allure are all due to the high number of crosses in the last match (7) against Hull as well as the amount of shots he took (5). Will that repeat? That’s a big question, if he does repeat that large number of crosses, and shots, then he’s well worth the salary. However, there could be some other options that are around the same price range that could reach the same potential.