Eys Breakers: Tonight's FREE NBA Player Props Picks
Happy Halloween everyone! I hope you all have a safe, fun-filled evening ahead. We have no shortage of sports action to entertain us if you are not into the trick-or-treating thing. Game 3 of the World Series, Monday Night Football, and a 7-game NBA slate are all available for us this evening.
I will be making some NBA player prop bets as part of my evening and wanted to share some of my favorites with you.
Free Expert NBA Player Props Picks
Jalen Smith Over 8.5 Rebounds (-105, BetMGM)
Jalen Smith is playing steady minutes for the Indiana Pacers with five straight games over 25 minutes. Myles Turner has missed some time already to begin the season, but Smith’s playing time appears to have stabilized whether Turner is in the lineup or not.
Smith dominated the glass with 14 rebounds in this same matchup against Brooklyn on Saturday. Turner was out that game and is expected to return this evening, but the line is accounting for that as it would be a couple rebounds higher if Turner was out again. Smith averaged 30 minutes played in two games with Turner before last game, and he averaged 8.0 rebounds per game. Brooklyn is one of the worst rebounding teams in basketball, and, in fact, they have the lowest rebounding rate in the league through their first six games.
We should be able to count on another 30 minutes from Jalen Smith tonight. I’ll take the over on 8.5 rebounds against one of the worst rebounding teams in the league.
Tyrese Maxey Over 21.5 Points (-106, Caesars)
Maxey had a bit of a down game last time out, with only 14 points against Chicago, but he absolutely smashed in the two games prior. Of course, Embiid was out against Toronto last Friday night when Maxey went off for 44 points, but he has shown the ability to put plenty of points in the bucket with Embiid on the floor as well. Most recently, he put up 31 points in Philly’s first game against Toronto last week, and he had 25 points earlier this month against San Antonio.
Joel Embiid is again listed as questionable for Philadelphia’s game against Washington tonight, and he sat out of this morning’s shootaround. I like this over for Maxey whether Embiid plays or not, but if he is out this line is way too low. I am jumping on before we get the Embiid news, because this is also a good matchup against Washington.
Washington actually ranks 10th in defensive rating this season, which was a bit surprising, and got me digging a little deeper. It turns out the Wizards have played a very favorable schedule to open the season. They have played the Pacers twice, the Pistons, the Bulls without Zach Lavine, the Cavs without Darius Garland, and a slow-paced Celtics team. I don’t see them anywhere near a top-10 defensive team this season.
Maxey has averaged 22.6 points per game this season, and he averaged 23.2 points per 36 minutes last season with Embiid off the court. Maxey has a good chance to go over in a good matchup if Embiid plays, and we have amazing line value if Embiid ends up sitting this one out.
Tyrese Haliburton Over 20.5 Points (-110, FanDuel)
Tyrese Haliburton took a step forward after he was traded over to the Indiana Pacers last year, with a meaningful jump in his scoring average and assist rate. It appears he has taken an even bigger jump to begin this season, particularly in the scoring department, as he has seen his scoring average jump all the way up to 23.4 points per game. He has been over 20.5 points in five of seven games this season and gets an excellent matchup with the Brooklyn Nets this evening.
The Brooklyn Nets have the worst defensive rating in the league this season through their first six games. Additionally, Ben Simmons got the mid-day downgrade to questionable on the injury report this afternoon, putting his status for the game in doubt.
I expect Haliburton to lead the charge for the Pacers yet with one of the league’s worst defenses on the other side. He should have no trouble going over 20.5 points again.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 32.5 Points (-117, Caesars)
Giannis is off to a fantastic start this season with an average of 34.4 points per game. Khris Middleton remains sidelined for now, and Giannis has taken his already elite production up a notch as a result. Tonight, he gets a matchup against the Detroit Pistons who rank second-to-last in defensive rating through their first seven games. To make matters worse, promising rookie big-man Jalen Duren has been ruled out for this game. Detroit will be lacking bodies in the front court and really have no one capable of stopping, or even slowing down, one of the league’s best players.
The Bucks are massive 13-point favorites and there is a chance this one could get out of hand, but there are even better chances that Giannis going off is the reason for that outcome. Giannis has been over 32.5 points in three of five games this season, and this may be his best matchup yet. He may not get his full run of minutes in the fourth quarter, but I think it is unlikely he needs them to go over 32.5 points in this one.
That will do it for the breakdown of today’s NBA slate. We were able to identify four player props to target:
- Jalen Smith Over 8.5 Rebounds (-105, BetMGM)
- Tyrese Maxey Over 21.5 Points (-106, Caesars)
- Tyrese Haliburton Over 20.5 Points (-110, FanDuel)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 32.5 Points (-117, Caesars)
Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!