Eys Breakers: Week 6 Free NFL Player Props Picks
Happy Friday everyone! Thanks for joining me, as we take a look at the Week 6 NFL slate and reveal some of my favorite prop bets to target this week.
We have an incredible game this week between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs that will surely capture the majority of the attention. This game features two of the best teams, and two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, in addition to a massive 54-point total.
There should be plenty of fireworks for everyone to enjoy in that one, but let’s start with another exciting spot this week in the NFC West. The Arizona Cardinals travel to the Seattle Seahawks in what should be another fast-paced, high-scoring game.
Free NFL Expert Picks: Week 6 Player Props
Geno Smith Over 266.5 Passing Yards
Current odds: -120 on BetMGM
Geno Smith has put together a fantastic season so far, while ranking in the top-5 of most statistical categories, including the top completion percentage in the league and 8.3 yards per attempt, which ranks third best. He threw for 268 yards against a very tough New Orleans defense last week, and for more than 300 yards in each of the two games prior to last week. He gets a home matchup with Arizona this week, who has played at the seventh-fastest situation-neutral pace this season and ranks just 27th in DVOA against the pass.
Expect Geno to continue his great season and go over 266.5 passing yards against the Cardinals. The line of 266.5 passing yards at BetMGM is great value as the line is 269.5 at most other sportsbooks.
D.K. Metcalf Over 71.5 Receiving Yards
Current odds: -115 on BetMGM
Metcalf has benefited from the outstanding quarterback play of Smith. He has earned a 28.1% target share on the season with at least 6 targets in every game. Two weeks ago against Detroit, Metcalf earned 10 targets and converted 7 receptions for 149 receiving yards. Last week against New Orleans, Metcalf earned 8 targets and converted 5 of them for 88 receiving yards.
Metcalf gets a great game environment this week with Arizona traveling to Seattle. The game total sits at 50.5 points with the Seahawks currently sitting as 2.5-point underdogs. The Cardinals have played at a fast pace while struggling to defend the pass this season, and Seattle should be able to attack them through the air.
With solid quarterback play, and a great matchup, Metcalf should be able to go over 71.5 receiving yards for a third-consecutive week.
Najee Harris Over 42.5 Rushing Yards
Current odds: -114 on FanDuel
Next, we will shift our focus to Pittsburgh, where the Steelers host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
It has been a rough start to the season for Najee Harris. He dealt with a foot injury in the pre-season and left the game Week 1 after aggravating it. Harris made some comments this week regarding the injury, including that he is back to feeling 100% healthy for the first time this season.
The Steelers have been bad at the quarterback position and along the offensive line as well, which has made things especially difficult for Harris. He saw his snap share fall to a season-low 46% last week in a blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills. Jaylen Warren will still likely be involved, but I expect Harris’ snap share to climb back into the 65%-75% range this week.
Harris gets another difficult matchup this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but I expect them to be able to keep the game competitive a little longer. Tampa currently owns the number one pass defense according to DVOA, while they rank 14th against the run. Harris should be an important part of the Steelers’ game plan in the early going if they hope to keep this game close.
Running the ball seems to be the most efficient way to move the ball on this talented Bucs defense this season, and Harris claims to be feeling as healthy as he has all season. We get a very low rushing yards line here for a running back with such a significant role. Give me Najee Harris to go over 42.5 rushing yards this week.
That will do it for our NFL prop bets today. We were able to identify three props to target this week:
- Geno Smith Over 266.5 Passing Yards (-120, BetMGM)
- D.K. Metcalf Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)
- Najee Harris Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets this week!