Falcons. vs. Commanders Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Falcons vs. Commanders Odds
| Falcons Odds | +3.5 |
| Commanders Odds | -3.5 |
| Over/Under | 46 |
| Date | Sunday, December 29 |
| Time | 8:20 PM ET |
| TV | NBC |
This evening, the Atlanta Falcons and Washington Commanders will meet on Sunday Night Football, with the outcome of this contest having major playoff implications for both teams. Atlanta needs a win to remain atop the NFC South division heading into Week 18. Washington needs a win or tie to clinch their first playoff berth since 2020.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Commanders as 3.5-point home favorites on the spread. The total is set at 46 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to RotoGrinders Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth, “rain looks likely at some point in the game” tonight between the Falcons and Commanders, but he isn’t expecting a complete washout. The larger impact on this evening could be sustained winds of 15+ mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. Our RotoGrinders NFL WeatherEdge tool shows a -3.4% impact on passing yards based on 26 games matching historical conditions. Football fans could see more emphasis placed on the ground attack for both of these offenses on Sunday Night Football.
Atlanta Falcons Preview
Penix gives Atlanta offense new life
Rookie QB Michael Penix, the 8th overall selection in this past summer’s draft, made his first career start in Week 16 against the Giants, helping lead his team to a 34-7 victory. His surface-level numbers from that game don’t look overly impressive – 18 for 27 for 202 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 interception – but the underlying efficiency metrics should have Atlanta fans optimistic heading into Week 17.
Penix finished last weekend with the 9th-most yards per attempt of any quarterback and didn’t have a single turnover-worthy throw on 30 dropbacks. Penix also avoided being sacked despite being pressured 9 times. Overall, Penix ranked 7th in EPA/play and 7th in success rate among 32 quarterbacks with 10+ dropbacks in Week 16.
The Falcons’ coaching staff didn’t completely open up the playbook for Penix against the Giants, evidenced by his 26th-ranked 5.9 aDOT. Still, the young signal caller was able to make the easy throws look easy, which is far more than Kirk Cousins had done across the previous two months of action. At a minimum, this offense has newfound upside as they look to put the finishing touches on a division title.
What to expect from the Falcons defense
Atlanta’s defense is as healthy as it has been during the second half of the season heading into Sunday Night Football against Washington. Star LB Troy Anderson is on injured reserve and CB Kevin King has been ruled out for this evening due to a concussion, but everyone else is good to go.
Anderson was Atlanta’s leading tackler through 4 games, but the team has adjusted relatively well in his absence. Since Week 5, Atlanta’s defense ranks 11th in EPA/play and 12th in success rate, ranking in the top half of the league against both the run and the pass in that time period. King has been used primarily as a depth option in the secondary unit and hasn’t played more than 17 snaps in any individual game in 2024.
The Falcons’ defense has everyone available for this key primetime affair and should do their part to help keep their team competitive.
Washington Commanders Preview
Daniels’ turnovers cause for concern?
After throwing only 2 interceptions in his first 10 games as a rookie, Jayden Daniels has now thrown 6 interceptions in his last 5 games – should Washington fans be concerned?
During his first 10 games, Daniels had the fewest interceptions of any starting quarterback and was tied with Lamar Jackson for the lowest turnover-worthy play rate in the entire NFL. Since Week 11, only Jameis Winston and Kirk Cousins (both of whom have lost their starting job) have thrown more interceptions than Daniels.
The good news for Washington is that Daniels’ recent turnover woes appear to be more related to bad luck than poor decision making. Since Week 11, Daniels still ranks in the top half of the league in turnover-worthy play rate (2.2%). Of the 9 quarterbacks with a lower turnover-worthy play rate than Daniels in that span, 7 of them have thrown 2 interceptions or fewer.
Even accounting for the poor turnover luck, Daniels has performed at a high level of late, ranking 12th in EPA/play and 11th in success rate across his last 5 games. It wouldn’t be surprising in the slightest to see him play a clean game tonight, as Washington looks to clinch a playoff berth.
Lattimore ruled OUT
Washington traded for CB Marshon Lattimore earlier this season with the hope that the former All-Pro could help solidify their secondary unit. However, Lattimore didn’t take the field with his new team until Week 15 due to injury and has now been ruled out once again after playing only 2 games with the Commanders.
Though Lattimore is a big name, his presence didn’t exactly fix Washington’s issues allowing big plays. Last week against the Eagles, Lattimore was clearly overwhelmed at times, and he was inexplicably called for 3 defensive pass interference penalties in the 3rd quarter alone.
This season, Washington’s defense ranks 22nd in DVOA, 24th in EPA/play, and 16th in success rate. They have been vulnerable to big plays on the ground and through the air, something that could present issues against a speedy Atlanta offense this evening.
Falcons vs. Commanders Prediction
Atlanta’s offense might not have looked overly impressive last week on the surface against New York. However, their ability to move the ball efficiently through the air and on the ground was a notable development given how poor the team’s offense had looked during their previous five games. Michael Penix and company should be able to generate at least a few explosive plays this evening against a Washington defense that has allowed the 5th-most runs of 20+ plays yards this season. If the rain and wind don’t cause too many problems, the Falcons should be able to get to 21 points in this matchup.
PICK: Falcons Team Total OVER 20.5 (-118, DraftKings)
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