Falcons vs. Commanders Same Game Parlay Picks for Today

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-12-29 15:32:37

Robinson of the Falcons

Sunday Night Football offers one of the most meaningful games on the Week 17 slate. The Commanders will welcome the Falcons to Washington with both teams needing a victory. The Falcons must win to keep their spot in the playoffs as the NFC South champion. Depending on the results of an earlier game, the Commanders could be playing to keep their NFC East championship bid alive. DraftKings Sportsbook prefers the Commanders. Let’s break down Sunday night’s contest.

Check out our Same Game Parlay Guide prior to diving into the betting odds and building a same game parlay for Sunday night.

Falcons vs. Commanders Same Game Parlay Preview

The Commanders are 3.5-point home favorites across online betting sites. The implied game total on DraftKings is 46 points with some betting sites offering 46.5 at the time of this writing. ScoresAndOdds reports more than 70% of tickets and betting handle were placed on the Commanders’ side of the betting spread this week. Despite this, the line has moved a point or more in the Falcons’ direction.

Across the Sunday slate, the NFL has some concerning weather. The RotoGrinders’ NFL weather report states that there should be rain with 10-15 mph sustained winds during tonight’s game. We might have a bump to the running game for two teams that don’t mind running the football.

The visiting Falcons come in with Drake London removed from the injury report. London was limited in practice this week but is ready to play in Sunday’s pivotal game. The Commanders were not so lucky with injury news for Week 17. Marshon Lattimore will not play on Sunday night due to a hamstring injury. Terry McLaurin hit the injury report with an ankle injury but seems likely to play. A check-in before kickoff would be prudent if selecting any props involving McLaurin. Jonathan Allen was activated off the injured reserve and will be a nice upgrade at defensive tackle. Washington allows 4.8 rushing yards per attempt and will face the 7th-ranked offense with regard to rush attempts per game. The Falcons have averaged 35.7 rushing attempts over their last three games.

An easier path for Washington would be through the air- weather permitting. The Falcons rank in the middle of the pack in passing yards allowed per attempt. The likely Offensive Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels, threw for 5 touchdowns last weekend against the Eagles in a sloppy come-from-behind victory. Daniels was nowhere near perfect (61.5% completion rate and 2 interceptions). However, when it mattered, Daniels drove the Commanders down the field for a crucial victory against Philadelphia. At the moment, Washington is likely going to meet the Eagles in the playoffs for a rubber match where Philadelphia should return Jalen Hurts.

The Commanders rank 4th in points per game. The Falcons… don’t. Despite being in position to make the playoffs with wins in their last three games, the Falcons switched to Michael Penix Jr. after an ugly victory against the Las Vegas Raiders. Penix was not asked to do much, as the Falcons scored twice on defense against the Giants in Week 16. Penix is a pocket-passer but definitely possesses far more athleticism than the recovering Kirk Cousins. Against a defense that struggles against the run, we shouldn’t be surprised to see a heavy workload for Bijan Robinson in tonight’s game.

Robinson is proving to be worth the early draft selection in his second campaign. Robinson has accumulated more than 1,600 all-purpose yards this season. Robinson averages 4.6 yards per rush attempt and faces a defense that struggles to stop running backs. With a rookie quarterback at the reins, Robinson and Tyler Allgeier will pitch in to control the offense and the clock. Allgeier has back-to-back games with double-digit carries.

The Commanders are the better team but struggle to make stops on defense. The Falcons will attempt to shorten tonight’s football game to protect Penix and take advantage of a poor rushing defense. The weather might get ugly. What do we do with tonight’s same game parlay? Let’s peruse the menu on DraftKings and build our Sunday Night Football SGP.

Same Game Parlay Picks for Falcons vs. Commanders

Bijan Robinson Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Tyler Allgeier 25+ Rushing Yards
Washington Commanders Moneyline

Bijan Robinson Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Bijan Robinson is the best player on the Atlanta offense. The Falcons used a first-round selection on Robinson last season and proceeded to avoid giving him the football. This season under new leadership, Robinson is one of the most dynamic weapons in the NFL.

The weather in this game will get ugly. The Falcons will be very motivated to run the football repeatedly. Rain. Winds. Rookie quarterback. Must-win game. The list of reasons to run the football is very compelling, and Robinson should approach 20 rushing attempts for a fourth straight week.

The Falcons need a victory tonight — especially if Tampa Bay beats Carolina — and face a porous rushing defense. Robinson will be the focal point. I think he gets in the box on Sunday night in a must-win game.

Tyler Allgeier 25+ Rushing Yards

Speaking of compelling reasons to run the football, Tyler Allgeier checks in for our second leg. While I think Robinson’s rushing prop is very attackable, Allgeier gives us similar access to a terrible rushing defense at a much smaller number. Allgeier is very likely going to approach double-digit rushing attempts. Even an inefficient day on the ground can get us home at this number.

Allgeier is posted at 30.5 rushing yards for his over-under. I don’t mind teasing that number down and giving the parlay a likely boost as well as a big odds boost with our next leg.

Washington Commanders Moneyline

So we build our parlay on the premise that the Commanders get gashed on the ground. However, just because the Commanders give up plenty of rushing work doesn’t necessarily mean they lose the game.

Michael Penix Jr. is still a rookie quarterback playing on the road in a must-win game. The southpaw was barely tested last weekend and now faces a far more difficult environment. Throw in less-than-stellar weather for passing and Penix could really struggle on Sunday night. A couple turnovers could render the rushing production useless.

The Commanders rank 4th in sack percentage in 2024. I think they pin their ears back and get after Penix in passing situations. Since we included a Falcons’ touchdown, the moneyline wager brings a hefty boost to our odds.