FanDuel NBA 3-Man Challenge Strategy: Wednesday, December 11th
Update – Giannis has been ruled out. That makes Bledsoe and Middleton fantastic plays now in the $2 range, as both see about 33% usage rates with Giannis off the court per CourtIQ. I have no problem pairing the two with another $3 option. This also puts KAT as the only $5 option, which will boost his ownership for those using the 5-1-1 approach
Hello Grinders. We have four games today on the FanDuel 3-Man Challenge, with two studs up top. Let’s look at some of my favorite daily fantasy basketball options from each price tier:
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$1 Range
Dillon Brooks – It’s really ugly in the $1 range, so you’re really going to be taking some chances if you pay up for KAT or Giannis in the $5 range. Dillon Brooks is the closest thing we have to a reliable starter. He’s only averaging 27.5 minutes per game this season so he doesn’t get a ton of run, but he’s scored 20+ FD points in five of his last eight games and has multiple steals in three straight games, which is great for FanDuel’s scoring system. The goal here is moreso his solid floor than his ceiling and hoping KAT or Giannis have a ceiling game.
Kenrich Williams – The box score of his last game wasn’t amazing (15.1 FD points), but Kenrich Williams moved into the starting lineup last game and played 32 minutes against the Pistons. It’s possible he sticks in the starting lineup, as the team experiments with moving Lonzo Ball in the second unit in order to provide the second unit with a ball-handler to help create shots. It does sound like Derrick Favors is expected back for this game which will add another body to the mix, but Favors has been out for nearly a month after injuries and the loss of his mother, so it’s unclear what kind of role he’d even have back in his first game. Williams is definitely a flyer, but there may be a route for 30+ minutes here, which is value for $1.
$2 Range
Lauri Markkanen – I don’t feel great about this one considering Markkanen hasn’t been great this season, but the minutes have been trending up lately (36 > 37 > 32) and he now gets a juicy matchup against a Hawks team that is coming off an overtime loss to the Heat. They might be tired, but even better is that the Hawks allow the 5th most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. On paper, this sets up as a great matchup for Lauri. He hasn’t flashed much upside this season so we’re really banking on the matchup, minutes and underlying skillset. I did consider writing up his teammate Wendell Carter, who is also $2, so he’s someone to also consider if you’d rather attack the Hawks through the center position.
Khris Middleton – Middleton has yet to crack 30 minutes since his return from injury, but he reached 29 minutes last game and has now finished with 31+ FD points in four straight games. If this game stays close with the Pelicans, Middleton has a chance to finally eclipse the 30 minute mark as the team is going to need his scoring. The Bucks also have the highest implied team total on the slate at a massive 123.75. There’s definite blowout risk with the Bucks 13 point favorites to start the day, but I view him as one of the better $2 options given the upside he possesses if he can get the minutes.
$3 Range
Devin Booker – The Suns/Grizzlies game has one of the highest over/unders on the slate and is projected to be close. The Grizzlies and Suns also rank 7th and 8th in pace, respectively, making this a spot where there should be a ton of shots and fantasy goodness. Booker has been on a tear lately, finishing with 68.1, 49.3 and 41.3 FD points in his last three games. The return of Ricky Rubio to the lineup is helping with Booker’s shot creation, and the return of Aron Baynes (albeit still in a limited fashion) should help contain Jonas Valanciunas a bit and keep this game close. I don’t love how Booker is so shot-dependent, but he’s shown flashes of his ceiling this past week and the game environment here is very fantasy-friendly.
Ja Morant – There is definitely some recency bias I’m probably fighting here, but Morant just torched the Warriors for 39.9 FD points in only 29 minutes and looked good in his return from a four-game absence. Everything I wrote above for Booker in terms of the elite game environment applies here for Morant as well. Morant doesn’t get big minutes but before his injury, he had dropped 45+ FD points in three straight games while playing just 30-33 minutes. The individual matchup here against Ricky Rubio isn’t one that should be feared, and you can definitely stack Booker with Morant if you think this game stays close and shoots out.
$4 Range
Trae Young – We only have three options to work with and I’ll admit, I’m not in love with any of them. If I had to go with one it’s Trae Young, but this tier is one I have the most concerns about. Ingram should have plenty of usage in the first unit, but he’s facing a Bucks team that ranks 1st in defensive rating. He’ll likely have his hands full with both Giannis and Khris Middleton, and there’s just some risk for foul trouble in guarding those guys. As for Rudy Gobert, he’s already faced KAT twice recently and finished with 43.5 and 38.3 FD points. Those are respectable scores and it’s not predictive of what will happen tonight, but it makes me question his ceiling. I like the matchup for Young here against the Bulls, but he played 41 minutes last night so I wonder if he’s tired or if his minutes get scaled back here a bit. Just from a pure upside perspective, Young is the one I’d want to target of this group, but it does carry some risk just given the back-to-back.
$5 Range
Giannis Antetokounmpo – As I mentioned in the $1 section, I find the $5 options risky just because I don’t love the $1 options and you’ll have to roster two by playing one of Giannis or KAT. I view Giannis as having the highest ceiling of all the players on this four game slate, so I have no arguments if you want to play Giannis and hope two of the $1 players can at least hit their median projections. Like I said in the Middleton writeup, there is blowout concern here, but the upside here is massive if the game can stay close. I do expect Giannis to carry more ownership than KAT against the Jazz, as KAT’s individual matchup against Rudy Gobert and that game environment is less desirable from a fantasy perspective. If you wanted to leverage the lower ownership and roll with KAT, I can see that argument. KAT did face Gobert twice recently and finished with 29.9 and 59.1 FD points, so he’s shown a wide range of outcomes so far. I view Giannis as the “safer” of the two options with the higher floor and my preferred $5 spend-up option.
Thanks for reading, and good luck tonight. May variance be on your side.