FanDuel NBA Single-Game Strategy: Clippers/Heat DFS Preview
Hello Grinders. FanDuel has a solid single-game offering for tonight’s Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Clippers game. Let’s dive in and see what we can make of this game.
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The Spread
The Clippers enter as solid 6.5-point home favorites against the Heat. This game features an over/under of 223 on the NBA betting odds board.
The Injuries
Meyers Leonard is out with an ankle injury, while Tyler Herro is out with a foot injury. Justise Winslow also remains out and didn’t travel with the team. This is going to leave the Heat short-handed. With Meyers Leonard out, I’d expect one of James Johnson, Kelly Olynyk or Derrick Jones Jr. to start, with the other two seeing larger roles off the bench. My guess would be Jones Jr. or Johnson getting the start, as I’d think they’d want to keep Olynyk in the second unit. As for Herro, his absence should lead to more minutes for Duncan Robinson as well as Derrick Jones Jr..
On the Clippers side, they remain healthy and Paul George is coming off a game where he played 31 minutes. It seems like he’s not on any minutes restriction given they gave him this much run.
The Options
Paul George – It’s hard not to start your lineups with George, who is priced at $13,500. To put this into context, he’s priced lower than Kawhi Leonard ($16,000), Jimmy Butler ($15,500) and Bam Adebayo ($14,500). Assuming George doesn’t have any restrictions and can exceed the 31 minutes he saw last game, this price tag could be a steal. George is averaging 1.32 fantasy points per minute this season, so he could drop his third straight 40+ FD point game if everything goes as planned.
Derrick Jones Jr. or Duncan Robinson – I’m grouping them together as they are the same price tag, and I don’t think you need to play both of them together, but I like the idea of getting exposure to one of them as a salary saver. Robinson has the safer floor in my opinion as he’s now played 33 or more minutes in four of his last five games, although he’s very shooting dependent, which isn’t necessarily great on FanDuel’s scoring system. The good news for Robinson is that with Tyler Herro out, I do see a route where he can get another 30+ minutes here. If you want to chase ceiling, I think DJJ is more interesting with Meyers Leonard out. It’s possible DJJ starts for Leonard, but even if he doesn’t, I feel like DJJ could be one of biggest beneficiaries from the Heat’s laundry list of injuries. Jones Jr. can be used to help defend Kawhi and George, and he’s athletic enough to help defend against someone like Montrezl Harrell should this game go small.
Bam Adebayo – I think trying to pay up for one of the Heat stars is a good idea, and given the $1,000 price gap between Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, I slightly prefer Adebayo given his price and matchup. Adebayo dropped 40.1 FD points against this Clippers team when they last met and nearly triple-doubled with a 18/9/8 line. He also had just one block in that game with no steals, while also having an uncharacteristic four turnovers. He should have an advantage against the Zubac/Harrell matchup, and his minutes should be safe even if this game goes slightly small.
Kawhi Leonard + Punt (James Johnson?) OR More Balanced – I didn’t write up Kawhi Leonard but he’s obviously an elite play. I think it’s a completely viable strategy to pair Leonard and Paul George, but you’ll likely need a deep punt to make that work. I really don’t love the bottom of the barrel options but James Johnson is the bare minimum at $6,000, and there’s a chance he gets into the rotation and sees some run with Meyers Leonard and Tyler Herro out. If he doesn’t start there’s a real route to a low floor here, but if he starts then pairing Kawhi with Johnson is a solid strategy. If you wanted to get very contrarian, you could fade Kawhi and instead go with a balanced build. This is more risky in my opinion, but I’d have to think Kawhi is going to be massively owned on this slate and just fading him will make you contrarian by nature. One build could be to pair Montrezl Harrell with Lou Williams, and soak up all the second unit usage. This is especially interesting if you think this game somehow blows out.
Thanks for reading, and good luck tonight. May variance be on your side.