FanDuel NBA Single-Game Strategy: Grizzlies/Pelicans DFS Preview
Update – Brandon Clarke has been downgraded to doubtful, so he’s unlikely to play. And now De’Anthony Melton has been upgraded to questionable. This news makes me like Solomon Hill more and Tyus Jones less, while I’m even more focused on Ja Morant now given the injuries piling up for the Grizzlies
Hello Grinders. FanDuel has a solid single-game offering for tonight’s Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans game. Let’s dive in and see what we can make of this game.
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The Spread
The Pelicans enter as slight 4.5 point home favorites in a game featuring a 242.5 over/under. This is by far the highest over/under on today’s slate and it makes sense, as the Grizzlies and Pelicans are 4th and 6th in pace, respectively.
The Injuries
There is some big news for this game, as Jaren Jackson Jr. and Marko Guduric have been suspended for this game due to their actions in their last game’s fight, while De’Anthony Melton is doubtful with a hand injury. From a DFS standpoint, this should give Solomon Hill and Brandon Clarke a boost with JJJ out, and it’s to be determined who starts in his place (my guess is Hill). As for Melton and Guduric out (I’m assuming Melton is out but will update this should be get upgraded), that could push Josh Jackson finally into the rotation. My guess is Tyus Jones sees more run as well, as Jackson only played five minutes last game.
On the Pelicans side, Kenrich Williams remains out. E’Twaun Moore also missed Tuesday’s game with a neck injury and I haven’t seen his status put in question for this game, so I’m assuming he’s playing but he’s not on my radar anyway.
The Options
Jrue Holiday – With the Pelicans favored here, it’s hard not to want to get a piece of their offense, and I like the idea of getting it through Holiday. Yes, there is some recency bias here with Holiday scoring a crazy 62.4 FD points last game against the Cavs, which was the nut matchup. This matchup lines up well for Holiday too considering the Grizzlies are allowing the 6th most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. We’ve seen the arrival of Zion Williamson hurt the production of Brandon Ingram the most so far, as Ingram hasn’t reached 38 FD points in any of his last four games. That’s not to say it won’t happen here, but with more mouths to feed in this offense, Holiday’s role seems the most secure.
Brandon Clarke – My guess is that Solomon Hill draws the start for the suspended Jaren Jackson Jr, but there should still be plenty of minutes to go around for Clarke. Clarke has only played between 21-26 minutes in each of his last eight games, yet he’s topped 25 or more FD points in six of them. Per CourtIQ when JJJ, Guduric and Melton are out, Clarke averages 1.06 fantasy points per minute (albeit he only sees a modest +0.5% usage bump). At his salary, I like his floor as he also has upside for more minutes.
Tyus Jones or Solomon Hill – My two favorite value plays on this slate are Tyus Jones and Solomon Hill, so I lumped them together as I doubt you’d need to play them together. The case for Jones is that with Guduric suspended, De’Anthony Melton doubtful and Grayson Allen out indefinitely, Jones could see a larger role off the bench to soak up the backup guard minutes. Jones had a 12/4/1 line off 20 minutes last game, and that was with Guduric playing 13 minutes and Josh Jackson playing five minutes. If we think Jones gets closer to 24-28 minutes, he could easily pay off his $7,500 price tag. The case for Hill is that there’s a chance he starts, and any starter at $6,000 is worth a look. Hill has two starts under his belt this season and he averaged 30.5 minutes over those two starts, so there’s always a chance he gets more run than we anticipated. He’s not a good per-minute producer (he averages 0.7 fantasy points per minute in these situations per CourtIQ), so just know there’s a possible low floor here if he doesn’t get many minutes.
Ja Morant – Let me preface by saying I think you can play both Williamson and Ja Morant if you wanted to pair the two and capture their upside, but if playing just one, I kind of lean Morant at the moment despite him being $1,500 more. I do think Williamson’s upside is getting higher as his minutes are starting to creep up to 30+ now, but we’ve seen Morant routinely reach 30+ all season and with the guard situation, he may be asked to handle an even greater load tonight. I don’t love the individual matchup against Jrue Holiday, who I consider a plus-defender, but he’s reached 40+ FD points in three straight games now and is showing he’s got a solid floor. With this game likely going back-and-forth and uptempo, there’s a lot to like here with Morant.
Thanks for reading, and good luck tonight. May variance be on your side.