FanDuel NBA Single-Game Strategy: Jazz/Spurs DFS Preview
Hello Grinders. FanDuel has a solid single-game offering for tonight’s Utah Jazz vs San Antonio Spurs game. Let’s dive in and see what we can make of this game.
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The Spread
As of this writing, the Jazz enter as four point road favorites, while the over/under hasn’t been released yet. It’s pretty telling that the Jazz are favored here, as they’ve moved to 3rd in the West with a 32-14 record while the Spurs are down in the 9th seed with a 20-26 record. The Jazz just got pounded by a Rockets team that was without James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Clint Capela, so you have to think they will be motivated to avenge that embarrassing loss.
The Injuries
The Jazz enter healthy with no notable injuries, but the Spurs are banged up. LaMarcus Aldridge has a sprained thumb and has already been ruled out for this game. The Spurs started Jakob Poeltl last game against the Bulls where he played a team-high 36 minutes (tied with DeRozan’s 36 minutes) and finished with a 16/13/1 line. It’s always hard to gauge what Coach Popovich will do but given the matchup with Rudy Gobert, one would think it’d make sense ot start Poeltl again for his size.
The Options
DeMar DeRozan – I’ll admit I’m not a huge DeRozan guy as he doesn’t do a whole lot in the peripherals department, but per CourtIQ he sees a big bump when Aldridge is off the court. DeRozan’s usage jumps up to 33% and he averages 1.25 fantasy points per minute. DeRozan flashed that upside last game, dropping 49.5 FD points against the Bulls. This matchup against the Jazz is going to be much tougher, but the path for more usage is there.
Jakob Poeltl – I just stated my case above for Poeltl, and if he starts, I could see him being needed to help contain Rudy Gobert down low. With Aldridge off the court, Poeltl is a 1.1 fantasy point per minute producer, meaning he could crush his price tag if given 30+ minutes. I get with Coach Pop that’s a big “if” as he’s averaging just 28 minutes per game this season as a starter (in eight starts) compared to 15.3 minutes per game as a reserve. If Poeltl draws the start, I like his potential upside.
Rudy Gobert – I’ve been trying to avoid the Jazz backcourt now with Mike Conley back, as that adds another complexity to the Jazz backcourt minutes. Donovan Mitchell has seen the safest minutes as he’s played 36 minutes now in back-to-back games, and he’s a fine option if you can find the $15,500 to pay for him. Meanwhile, Joe Ingles has seen his minutes fluctuate at 30 > 26 > 25 > 29 > 33 over his last five games, while Mike Conley has seen his minutes creep up from 15 > 17 > 18 > 19 > 24 in his last five games. It seems like the coaching staff is slowly giving Conley a larger workload and it’s likely going to come at the expense of guys like Ingles, Jordan Clarkson and Emmanuel Mudiay (who has been pushed out of the rotation lately). This is why I prefer targeting someone like Gobert on the Jazz, whose role is secure. He’s $1,000 cheaper than Mitchell and arguably has just as high a ceiling. He’s also been in All-Star form lately, having scored 40+ FD points in 9 of his last 10 games. Given how valuable blocks and steals are on FanDuel, he’s my favorite Jazz target.
Trey Lyles or (Patty Mills / Rudy Gay) – Lyles has been starting and gets a slight boost when Aldridge is off the court, but he still averages just 0.87 fantasy points per minute. He’s only $7,000 on this slate and given he played 26 minutes last game and finished with 24.1 FD points, I expect him to be popular as he’s probably the best salary saver. I think Lyles is a solid option for salary relief, but I also don’t mind getting a little crazy and pivoting off a chalky Lyles and instead going with Patty Mills or Rudy Gay at lower ownership. Neither are guaranteed many minutes, but to be honest, Lyles isn’t guaranteed many minutes either as Pop could Pop at any moment. The CourtIQ data shows Mills averages 0.98 fantasy points per minute while Gay is at 1.1 when Aldridge is off the court, so both are significantly better per-minute producers than Lyles. We just saw Mills thrive last game, which I’ll admit may be an outlier game, but it goes to show that Pop isn’t afraid to ride a hot hand and extend minutes should someone catch fire. I think Lyles is the safe play, but both Mills and Gay provide leverage off a chalkier roster construction as I expect them to be lower owned.
Thanks for reading, and good luck tonight. May variance be on your side.