FanDuel NBA Single-Game Strategy: Jazz/Warriors DFS Preview
Update – Tony Bradley is out, which doesn’t move the needle for me but gives Ed Davis a safer floor for some minutes if you wanted to punt with him
Hello Grinders. We have FanDuel running a solid single-game contest tonight for the Utah Jazz vs Golden State Warriors game. Let’s highlight some news and notes before diving into some thoughts on how to approach this daily fantasy basketball slate:
Be sure to check out RotoGrinders’ NBA DFS news and alerts before you lock in your teams!
The News
Both teams are dealing with injuries, and I highly encourage you to monitor The Situation Room for the latest news and notes.
On the Jazz side, Mike Conley remains out, which should keep Joe Ingles in the starting lineup. Ingles has been on fire lately, scoring 30+ FD points in three straight games. Meanwhile, Donovan Mitchell has also seen an increased role on offense, seeing usage rates of 31%, 35% and 27% in his last three games.
On the Warriors side, Draymond Green is out for rest, Ky Bowman was sent to the G-League and Eric Paschall is doubtful (I’m assuming he’s out for the purposes of this article). Kevon Looney only played five minutes last game, which was a huge surprise to me. He’s been dealing with a minutes restriction but I’ve found no answer yet as to why he didn’t get more run last game. Instead, Marquese Chriss played 24 minutes and looked good with a 12/10/2 line. Also interesting was that Jordan Poole was a DNP-CD, but my guess is that he’ll re-enter the rotation tonight with the lack of bodies.
The MVP/STAR/PRO
There’s a solid case to be made for Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell and D’Angelo Russell to be your MVP. They are all priced within $1,000 of each other and all have a lot of solid aspects working in their favor.
Rudy Gobert gets a dream matchup against a Warriors team allowing the 9th most fantasy points to opposing centers. With Draymond Green out and Eric Paschall doubtful, the Warriors are going to have to lean on some combination of Willie Cauley-Stein, Marquese Chriss, Kevon Looney and Omari Spellman to slow Gobert down. The scoring format also works well for Gobert with blocks and steals worth six points apiece at the MVP spot, and Gobert is averaging a combined 2.5 blocks + steals this season (in his career, he averages 2.9, meaning you could get 18 points just from his defensive stats if he has a “normal” game).
The case for Donovan Mitchell are the numbers I outlined above where he’s seeing roughly a 30%+ usage rate with Mike Conley off the court. Mitchell is not someone who racks up a ton of blocks or steals (he’s averaging just 1.5 combined this season), so the scoring system doesn’t heavily reward him as much as it does for Gobert. If I’m prioritizing a Jazz player, it’s going to be Gobert over Mitchell.
It feels weird, but I kind of prefer D’Angelo Russell over Mitchell today. Looking at the CourtIQ data, Russell sees a massive 35.3% usage rate and averages over 1.3 fantasy points per minute when Green, Paschall, Bowman and Curry are off the court this season:
With the offense flowing through Russell tonight, I can see a valid route to him being the highest scoring player in this game if the game can stay close and competitive.
My personal order of these three is Gobert > Russell > Mitchell, but it’s very close.
The Rest
I had already gushed about Joe Ingles, so I am more than fine firing him up today. There are two value plays I don’t mind taking some shots on today if you want to pay up at the high end and dumpster dive for some salary relief:
Marquese Chriss – Chriss has not seen consistent minutes this season so it does feel point-chasey, but he dropped 38 FD points last game in 24 minutes. He hadn’t see this many minutes since November 20th so there’s definitely a chance his minutes fall way down today, but the loss of Green and Paschall today makes me think Chriss could see extended minutes once again. Chriss is essentially playing for his roster spot right now, as the Warriors opted to send Ky Bowman down to the G-League instead of cutting Chriss to free up a spot. There’s a chance the Warriors are trying to get an extended look at Chriss, and we know he has huge per-minute upside. At just $6,000, I like him a lot as a YOLO play today.
Emmanuel Mudiay – This also feels gross to write, but Mudiay has 20+ FD point upside here and if this game turns into a blowout, we could see Mudiay get some garbage time run. He’s scored 22+ FD points in two of his last three games and the Warriors allow the 9th most fantasy points to opposing point guards. With no Draymond Green ro Ky Bowman here, who are plus-defenders, Mudiay will be up against guys like D’Angelo Russell and Jordan Poole, who was a DNP-CD last game. Let me just reiterate I don’t love Mudiay and would prefer Chriss over Mudiay as I see Chriss as having a higher floor and ceiling, but I can see a route where Mudiay puts up a respectable enough score to match some of the other low-usage starters.
Thanks for reading and good luck tonight.