FanDuel NBA Single-Game Strategy: Pelicans/Nuggets DFS Preview
Hello Grinders, and Merry Christmas. FanDuel is running some solid single-game contests for tonight’s New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets game. Let’s quickly look at some of the game factors and touch on some possible roster construction options for our daily fantasy basketball lineups.
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The Spread
Denver enters the day as 10 point home favorites, which ties the Rockets as the largest favorites on this Christmas slate. It’s definitely a bit worrisome, as the Pelicans have started to free-fall and have the second worst record in the Western Conference at 8-23. The Nuggets, meanwhile, are winners of seven straight and are at 21-8. I know we try to avoid predicting blowouts, but it’s hard not to at least have it in the back of our heads here with these two teams trending in opposite directions. The game also has an over/under of just 219.5, which is the second lowest on this main slate. Given all these factors, I tend to lean prioritizing players on the Nuggets side over the Pelicans side given their higher implied team total.
The Injuries
Amazingly, both teams enter fairly healthy with no major injuries to monitor. Be sure to keep an eye out on The Situation Room throughout the day for the latest injury news.
The Options
Nikola Jokic – It’s hard not to love Jokic in this spot, who has come alive lately despite talk of his dad bod (shout out to all the fellow dad bods out there). Jokic has now finished with 40+ FD points in nine of his last 10 games, and is coming off a massive 22/12/10 triple-double. Yes, he’s expensive at $16,000, but he also faces a Pelicans team that’s allowing the 12th most fantasy points to opposing centers. The Pelicans have gotten Derrick Favors back at full-strength so the matchup isn’t as good as perhaps the numbers suggest, but I’m viewing Jokic as having the highest upside of any player on this slate and I have no problem prioritizing him as your MVP. LineupHQ also agrees with me, as you get nothing but a bunch of Jokic’s when sorting by Ceiling.
Will Barton – Jokic has the ceiling, but Barton has the floor that’s very valuable in this kind of format. Barton is priced as the 5th highest priced player in this contest but according to LineupHQ, projects to have the 2nd highest floor outside of Jokic. Barton continues to see minutes in the low-to-mid 30s, and he’s now scored at least 30 FD points in six of his last eight games. He’s not someone who will break the slate and drop a massive hammer like Jokic can, but his floor tends to be solid enough where he won’t kill you. I’m viewing Barton as a viable option for one of the STAR or PRO spots just to capture a safe floor.
Brandon Ingram – If I’m going to prioritize any Pelicans player, it would be Ingram. I tend to lean stacking up the Denver side as much as possible, but Ingram has taken his game to another level this season and has reached 34+ FD points in eight straight games. He leads the team with a 29% usage rate, and to put this into perspective, Jrue Holiday is next on the team at 25%, so there’s a pretty wide margin. If this game somehow stays close, it’s likely on the back of Ingram, making him a fine option to prioritize.
Lonzo Ball – Ball moved into the starting lineup last game but played just 17 minutes. He still finished with 25.4 FD points, and had he played “normal” starter minutes, he may have approached 35-40 FD points. If we look at the Game Flow Tracker from their last game against the Blazers, we can see that Ball was benched for the entire 4th quarter while the team went more with Kenrich Williams and E’Twaun Moore:
It ended up working as the Pelicans beat the Blazers 102-94, so it’s hard to argue it was the wrong strategy. But if we think Ball sees an uptick in minutes here from the 17 he saw last game, he could be a solid value at his $9,500 price tag.
Jerami Grant vs Mason Plumlee – We’re going to need some kind of value on this slate if you’re paying up for guys like Jokic and Ingram, which I would try and do. The two value plays I like most are between Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee. There are arguments to both, and it’s this – I think Grant has the safer floor and safer route to minutes, but Plumlee has the higher ceiling in my opinion. Plumlee has seen fewer than 20 minutes in nine of his last 10 games and that’s going to cap his upside, but if we expect this game to blowout then perhaps Plumlee sees some extended garbage time run or gets to face more time against the Pelicans’ backup bigs. The Pelicans’ backup bigs consists of Melli, Hayes and Okafor, who aren’t anything to be scared of. As for Grant, he has a better case at seeing 20+ minutes but he’s a much lower per-minute fantasy producer. If I were forced to choose just one I would side with Plumlee slightly and just hope he can find his ceiling in his limited minutes. Per CourtIQ, Plumlee is averaging 1.14 fantasy points per minute while Grant is at 0.76 fantasy points per minute.
Thanks for reading and good luck tonight. May variance be on your side. Merry Christmas.