FanDuel NFL Expert Survey: Week 7

Want to know who Notorious is definitely paying up for in NFL DFS this week? Wondering which value play STLCardinals84 is eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup building decisions for this week’s contests.

Week 7

# NFL Expert Survey Questions (Week 7) Notorious STLCardinals84 JMToWin Stevietpfl TheSeige Meansy53
1 Who is your must-play stud in cash games? Le’Veon Bell Le’Veon Bell Ezekiel Elliott Mark Ingram Mark Ingram Ezekiel Elliott
2 Who is your must-play stud in tournaments? LeSean McCoy Michael Thomas Mike Evans Julio Jones Mike Evans Julio Jones
3 Who is your favorite salary saver on the board? Rishard Matthews Eric Decker Bennie Fowler George Kittle Rishard Matthews Rishard Matthews
4 Which stud play are you fading in tournaments? Antonio Brown A.J. Green Antonio Brown Ezekiel Elliott Antonio Brown Dez Bryant
5 Who’s your top contrarian play on the board? Melvin Gordon Jay Ajayi Doug Baldwin Todd Gurley Joe Mixon Pierre Garcon
6 Which low-priced chalk player are you most likely to fade? Tyrod Taylor Tyrod Taylor Adrian Peterson Carlos Hyde Adrian Peterson Adrian Peterson
7 Which low-priced chalk player are you most likely to have heavy exposure to? Rishard Matthews Eric Decker Rishard Matthews Rishard Matthews Rishard Matthews Rishard Matthews
8 Which player are you afraid of being underweight on compared to the field? Antonio Brown Antonio Brown Ezekiel Elliott Ezekiel Elliott Julio Jones Antonio Brown
9 Which skill position players (if any) are you targeting versus an elite defense? Hunter Henry Adam Thielen N/A Melvin Gordon N/A Le’Veon Bell
10 Which NFL team are you targeting players from the most? NO NO NO SF TEN NO
11 Which NFL team are you looking to avoid? NYG BAL BAL NYG NYG BAL
12 What’s the best position to spend up on this week? RB RB RB RB RB RB
13 What’s the best position to save salary on this week? TE TE TE TE TE TE
14 Which game has sneaky shootout potential this week? TEN/CLE CIN/PIT TEN/CLE TEN/CLE TEN/CLE TEN/CLE

What is your favorite correlation of the week and why?

Notorious: Melvin Gordon and the Chargers D/ST – This is a low-owned correlation play that has a lot of upside in a home matchup against the Broncos. Denver’s offense has stalled in recent weeks and they are expected to be without Emmanuel Sanders. The Chargers haven’t been great defensively, but they have an adjusted sack rate of 8.8%, which matches the adjusted sack rate of the Broncos’ offensive line.

STLCardinals84: Jay Ajayi and Miami Defense – I’m still not sold on the Jets continuing their current offensive pace, and the Dolphins should have some momentum after their big second half comeback against the Falcons on the road. It is no coincidence that they finally won on the day where they gave Jay Ajayi 26 carries. I expect a similar dose this week and love the Ajayi/MIA D pairing.

JMToWin: Brett Hundley and Davante Adams – The DFS community may shy away from the Packers after they lost Aaron Rodgers, but Hundley is a dual-threat quarterback taking on a sub-par defense, and Adams is priced affordably and showed a good connection with Hundley in Week 6. I expect this stack to pay off nicely, and if ownership goes in other directions, all the better for us.

Stevietpfl: C.J. Beathard and George Kittle – Beathard came into the game late in second quarter, and this offense started to click. Young quarterbacks tend to go to tight ends, and George Kittle played with Beathard at Iowa in college. He targeted him seven times on Sunday, and with a full game, he could see double-digit targets. I love going cheap here, I think that frees up salary to build what I want.

TheSeige: Rishard Matthews and DeShone Kizer – Well, these guys don’t play for the same team I get that, but both are in game I think will shoot. They also come at super cheap price tags that allow you to pay up for all the other studs on the board.

Meansy53: Marcus Mariota and Rishard Matthews – Cleveland ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, and Matthews is arguably Mariota’s favorite target. He has almost 24% of the target market share. I expect them to connect for, at the very least, one score this weekend.

Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?

Notorious: LeSean McCoy is often an afterthought in DFS because he doesn’t score many touchdowns, but I expect some positive regression in that aspect. On the season, he has 12 rushes in the redzone, five inside the ten, and two inside the five yard line.

STLCardinals84: Outside of the Falcons/Patriots Sunday night game, not a single game on the board opened with a Vegas total above 48 points. It’s going to be a very difficult week to build rosters, and we might see a lot of diversity in ownership. Barring some surprising injury news, this will be a difficult week.

JMToWin: Across the last four Pittsburgh/Cincy regular season games, Antonio Brown has averaged five catches for 57.5 yards.

Stevietpfl: The LA Rams lead the league with 29.8 points per game this season. Gurley has played 85.9% of the snaps, and he leads the NFL in goal line carries (1.6 p/g).

TheSeige: #1 WRs have quietly mashed the Bills all season and Mike Evans is underpriced and draws that nice matchup this week

Meansy53: LeSean McCoy gets almost 35% of his team’s red zone opportunities, yet he hasn’t found the box yet the entire season. The touchdowns are coming.

What’s your hot take of the week?

Notorious: The starting QB of the Browns (Kizer or Hogan) finishes inside the top ten in fantasy scoring.

STLCardinals84: Michael Thomas breaks out with 140 receiving yards and a touchdown.

JMToWin: Brett Hundley is on the winning roster in every major DFS tourney.

Stevietpfl: DeShone Kizer throws 3 touchdowns after being benched last weekend.

TheSeige: Mike Evans goes over 26 FanDuel points

Meansy53: Brett Hundley throws for three touchdowns and runs for another.

Which player will you be most overweight on compared to the field and why?

Notorious: Michael Thomas – He’s had a bad string of matchups and now gets to square off against an injured Packers’ secondary. After letting a lot of people down a week ago, people may be hesitant to go back to the well.

STLCardinals84: Le’Veon Bell – The floor is simply the highest you will find, and the Steelers realize that they win games when he gets the football. They lost to the Jaguars in a game where he only got 15 carries, and they won against the Ravens and Chiefs when he got 30+ carries. The production has ramped up of late, and he’s a great play in all formats in a home game against Cincinnati.

JMToWin: Brett Hundley – On a week without a lot to like in terms of value – and with plenty of low-Total games – I’ll gladly take the dual-threat quarterback in a well-schemed offense against a poor defensive opponent, all at a low price.

Stevietpfl: Mark Ingram – The Saints are 6th in run blocking efficiency this season, and it continues to fly under the radar. Green Bay is allowing 3.85 yards per carry this season, and they’ve allowed at least 100-yards rushing in four of six games. I love the Saints defense with Ingram, and I think Ingram gets 25+ touches again this weekend.

TheSeige: Saints defense – Apparently people think last week was a total fluke, but this defense is really talented and everyone wants to ignore it. Brett Hundley is not good at throwing footballs, so I like the Saints chances at sacks, INTs and TDs this week.

Meansy53: LeSean McCoy – We already are betting on some positive touchdown regression coming his way, and the Tampa defense has struggled all year. Even if the Bucs get a few bodies back, the price discount we get on Shady more than makes up for it in my opinion.

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  • GordonsGecko

    “TheSeige: #1 WRs have quietly mashed the Bills all season and Mike Evans is underpriced and draws that nice matchup this week.”

    Where is this data coming from? They are currently 8th worst vs. #1 receivers in DVOA.

  • TheAnswer

    • x3

      2017 Blogger of the Month

    @GordonsGecko said...

    Where is this data coming from?

    TheSeige may have a point here, just from my tidy tracker the Bills have been less than impressive to WR1’s. But I don’t think mashed is the right word.

    Resource: My NFL Experiment Continued

  • GordonsGecko

    Thanks. Just wasn’t seeing it based on the initial comment. Green mashed them, but that’s about it for big time performances. Then again, the Falcons haven’t been lighting it up this year, so you could argue that the offenses they’ve faced so far haven’t been top tier. I think we still need more evidence to determine just what Buffalo is as a defense. Is it the chicken…or the egg?

  • Kleppy12

    @TheAnswer said...

    TheSeige may have a point here, just from my tidy tracker the Bills have been less than impressive to WR1’s. But I don’t think mashed is the right word.

    Resource: My NFL Experiment Continued

    Also, that Falcon game is a little misleading too since Julio got hurt in that game and only played in 20% of the snaps, if he plays his usual 80% or so he’s probably closer to 100 yards on 10 catches. DVOA can also be very misleading when it comes to DFS purposes because it factors in so many things completely unrelated to DFS. For example if team A has the ball 3rd and 3 to go and they complete a 4 yard pass to player A that hurts a defenses DVOA more than when team B completes a 10 yard pass to player B on 3rd and 15 but for DFS purposes we would rather have player B because he scored an extra .6 points. DVOA is simply rating a team on how it does in a give situation compared to the rest of the league. so often times good teams with good DVOA’s can be good to use players against because if you’re down 21 in the 4th, with 6 minutes left, the defense will let you have all the 5-8 dink and dunk passes you want (as long as they keep you in bounds) and that won’t really hurt their DVOA because that’s what every other team would too, mean while WR A just caught
    6 passes for 45. It also doesn’t take volume into account like the fact that QB’s have attempts 39, 32, 40, 36, 42 against Buffalo compared to a team like Jacksonville (I know they have a better DVOA, just using them as an example) that QB’s have attempted 21, 55, 31, 18, 27, 21 passes against them, so just passed on attempts Buffalo will probably give up more fantasy points to WR’s but that doesn’t mean they’re any worse.

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