2021 Farmers Insurance Open PGA Golf Betting Picks
While football takes a week off, golf betting will fill the void. I’ll stay on top of Super Bowl odds between now and Feb. 7, of course, but this week it’s about long drives, sand saves and birdie putts as we try to make some winning PGA golf betting picks for the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open and build that bankroll ahead of the biggest sports betting day of the year.
2021 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview
- Course: Torrey Pines South Course (Three Rounds)
- Par: 72
- Yardage: 7,765 Yards
- Greens: Poa
- Designer: William F. Bell
- Course: Torrey Pines North Course
- Par: 72
- Yardage: 7,382 Yards
- Greens: Poa
- Designer: William F. Bell
Golfers will split up on Thursday and Friday as each competitor plays a round at the South Course and North Course during the first two days of the Farmers Insurance Open. After Round 2, the top 65 golfers (and ties) will make the cut and continue their week by playing the more difficult of the two courses (South) on Saturday and Sunday. The South Course will host the 2021 U.S. Open 13 years after hosting it in 2008.
With the South Course stretching more than 7,700 yards, driving distance is as important at Torrey Pines as it is anywhere. In fact, with the exception of Marc Leishman and Brandt Snedeker, bombers have dominated in recent years. Take a look at the past 10 Farmers Insurance Open Champions.
- 2020: Marc Leishman (-15)
- 2019: Justin Rose (-21)
- 2018: Jason Day (-10)
- 2017: Jon Rahm (-13)
- 2016: Brandt Snedeker (-6)
- 2015 Jason Day (-9)
- 2014: Scott Stallings (-9)
- 2013: Tiger Woods (-14)
- 2012: Brand Snedeker (-16)
- 2011: Bubba Watson (-16)
Farmers Insurance Open Golf Betting Picks
Ultimately I’m looking for golfers who hit the ball far, have solid approach games, and have enough touch to save par when they inevitably miss the small greens at Torrey Pines. Hopefully, with a little bit of luck, this formula will turn into some profitable Farmers Insurance Open golf betting picks come Sunday.
Bubba Watson +5000
Risking 1 Unit to Win 50
Watson checks the distance box, but his short game isn’t as reliable. Luckily it hasn’t been too much of a problem for him at Torrey Pines. He won the Farmers Insurance Open in 2011 and finished 6th here a year ago. Even when the putts don’t fall his way, he still finds a way to snag a decent paycheck at Torrey Pines — he finished 23rd and 13th on the two occasions that he’s lost more than four strokes with his putter at the Famers Insurance Open. Watson closed 2020 with a 7th at the CJ Cup and 4th at the Zozo before missing the cut at the Masters, which was the last time we saw him. If Watson is playing, I assume he’s ready to win. And at Torrey Pines, he’s already proven he can.
[Bet Bubba Watson +5000 at PointsBet Sportsbook]
Rickie Fowler +8000
Risking 1 Unit to Win 80
Fowler continued work on his swing change in the offseason, and things appeared to be clicking in his first tournament of the year. Fowler gained 8.9 strokes tee-to-green, three of which were off-the-tee. Despite losing strokes with this putter and struggling out of the gate with a first-round 73, Fowler still managed a T21 finish.
Fowler isn’t the longest driver of the golf ball, but he’s not the shortest, either. He has enough distance to compete and the ball-striking ability to give himself birdie looks. Fowler also brings the kind of touch on and around the greens necessary to prevent a good score from turning into a bad one. Torrey Pines isn’t an easy place for up-and-downs, and golfers who lack that touch, like Viktor Hovland, for example, will struggle if they don’t consistently find the putting surface with their approach shots.
Rickie’s +8000 price tag at PointsBet is significantly better than the +6600 odds you’ll find elsewhere. Moreover, we’re getting these long odds on Fowler because of his poor play in 2020. Last year, Fowler was +2200 to win this exact same tournament. Let’s hope the swing change helps Fowler find some late Sunday tee times again.
[Bet Rickie Fowler +8000 at PointsBet Sportsbook]
Gary Woodland +8000
Risking 1 Unit to Win 80
Most sportsbooks have adjusted Woodland’s odds after opening the former U.S. Open Champion as a 70-1 to 80-1 longshot to win this week. Now Woodland is as short as +5000 at shops like William Hill, BetMGM and FanDuel; luckily we can still grab +8000 at PointsBet, which is probably a wise decision.
If you watched Woodland closely in 2020, a year in which he ended with three-consecutive missed cuts not including a last-place finish at a no-cut event (CJ Cup), then this pick might come as a surprise. As such, we’re getting longer odds on a golfer who, just a little more than a year removed from the best season of his career, has shown he’s a premier talent on Tour.
A lot of Woodland’s recent struggles can be attributed to health issues, mainly back and hip problems, that appeared to be out of his way last week at The American Express. Woodland gained strokes everywhere but around-the-green as he finished 16th in his first tournament of 2021.
If everything is in sync, then Woodland should be more than comfortable at Torrey Pines, a venue where he made five-of-six cuts dating back to 2015 and has two Top-10s to go along with five Top-20s. We’ll need Gary to run hot with the putter and maybe catch some luck with his wedges a time or two, but that’s nothing I haven’t previously requested from him. Similar to Fowler, this is another good opportunity to “buy low” on a proven golfer.
[Bet Gary Woodland +8000 at PointsBet Sportsbook]
More Farmers Insurance Open PGA Picks
Jason Day +4000 – The last time we saw Day, he finished T12 at the RSM Classic in November. His current form is a bit of a mystery, and you never know if a weird injury might sneak up and cause an early WD, but with two victories, a runner-up and a pair of Top-10s, Day’s course history at Torrey Pines is about as good as it gets.
1/2 Unit to win 20
Sungjae Im +4000 – Im’s aggressive play cost him some strokes last week, but his persistent birdie-hunting raises his ceiling for both PGA DFS and outright betting purposes. He’s only grabbed one Tour victory in his short career, but more wins are coming for the 22-year-old.
1/2 Unit to Win 20
Cam Davis +7000 – On the heels of his best career finish, Davis’s solo 3rd at the American Express might be a sign that 2021 will be his breakout year on Tour. If he can beat the field this time, he’ll join Day and Leishman as Australian winners at Torrey Pines.
1/2 Unit to Win 35
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Check out our PGA Golf Betting Guide for more golf betting tips
Image Credit: Imagn