2024 Farmers Insurance Open PGA Golf Betting Tips This Week

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-01-23 16:41:16

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open. You can use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

After a shocking victory at the American Express by amateur golfer, Nicholas Dunlap, the PGA TOUR shifts to beautiful Torrey Pines. Home to past U.S. Opens, the South Course at Torrey Pines will finally test the metal of golfers early in the season. After a birdie fest at the American Express, we can expect a tougher test for golfers and a likely more competitive final stretch. Let’s take a look at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines through betting odds, field notes, and ultimately, betting picks.

Farmers Insurance Open Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – January 23rd – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the Farmers Insurance Open:

• 2023 – Max Homa (-13)
• 2022 – Luke List (-15)
• 2021 – Patrick Reed (-15)
• 2020 – Marc Leishman (-15)
• 2019 – Justin Rose (-21)
• 2018 – Jason Day (-20)
• 2017 – Jon Rahm (-13)

The field will be 156 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. While this is not an elevated event, the Farmers Insurance Open has attracted some of the better players in golf. 12 of the top 30 in the OWGR will tee it up this weekend.

Justin Thomas withdrew after his weekend at the American Express. The loss of Thomas watered down the odds at the top of the board. Max Homa returns to defend his title from last season. Luke List is also in the field as well as his playoff partner that season, Will Zalatoris.

Notably absent will be former winners Jon Rahm, Marc Leishman, and Patrick Reed. Reed bucked the trend of bombers performing well on the daunting South Course — a course that routinely demands distance off of the tee and stellar play from long irons.

Three players in the field have made the cut each of the last five years at Torrey Pines: Luke List, Sungjae Im, and Hideki Matsuyama. Matsuyama is 60/1 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Let’s look into the courses — mainly the South Course — before logging in picks.

2024 Farmers Insurance Betting Preview

• Course: Torrey Pines GC (North and South)
• Date: January 24 – 27
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,765 yards (South), 7,258 yards (North)
• Greens: Poa (South), Bentgrass (North)

The South Course will be one of the toughest tests players see this season. Stretched out at 7,765 yards, driving distance and accuracy will matter, as players will face longer approach shots than they have thus far in 2024. The North Course is the players’ opportunity to score.

The average green size at the South Course is 5,000 square feet. At the North Course, the greens are bentgrass and far larger, measuring at about 6,000 square feet per green. Putting has played a huge role in success at this tournament over the years, especially on Poa. Of the favorites, Xander Schauffele and Max Homa rank in the top 15 in putting on Poa over their last 100 rounds.

With kakuya grass all over, around-the-green proficiency will finally play a role, as players will often be playing from a very long range at the South Course. Proximity from 200 yards will be important, but when players miss, they will need to get up-and-down to keep away the red figures. Jason Day ranks 2nd in the field over his last 36 rounds in around-the-green play. Day also happens to rank in the top 15 over the last 100 rounds in putting on Poa.

Speaking of proximity, seven of the eight Par 3s are 200 yards or longer. Break out the long irons, gentlemen. In cooler temperatures on a coastal course, these holes will play very long and will be holes where players are content to make par.

Seven of the Par 4s fall in the 450-500 yard range. The course will demand a lot with the driver and positioning. Longer hitters will be at an advantage here, especially if they keep the ball in the fairway. Luke List, Keith Mitchell, and Min Woo Lee find themselves in the top 15 in driving distance of players with reasonable betting odds.

Players must make birdies on the Par 5s. This is crucial. On the South Course, all four holes are the easiest, with birdie rates north of 30%. Patrick Cantlay leads the field in SG: Par 5. Tony Finau is in the top 5.

I will be taking a look at SG: Approach, SG: ARG, SG: Putting, Par 4: 450-500, Proximity > 200, and Driving Distance. Let’s see what our model points us to for this week’s betting card.

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2024 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Tips

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Min Woo Lee +2500 (BetRivers)

Get used to this. Lee leads our betting card for the week, as I want to get ahead of his first big win during the regular PGA TOUR season. Many consider Lee a likely breakout candidate on the PGA TOUR this season. I agree and will be spending plenty of shekels looking for that first win.

Lee ranks in the top 10 for most of our major stat categories — driving distance, SG: OTT, putting, etc. He seems to be the prototypical player to target at a course like Torrey Pines, a long hitter with a good putter in the bag. Lee is going to be considered at many courses this season and very likely will be considered for majors like the PGA Championship and U.S. Open.

We start here with Lee on BetRivers for 0.8 units.

Tony Finau +2500 (Caesars)

Finau might not be in the best form, but this week feels like a homecoming. He has an excellent history at this event, with five top-10 finishes and seven top-20s. He has done everything but win the event.

Finau might represent the mold that Min Woo Lee is cut from. A longer hitter, Finau features one characteristic that Lee doesn’t quite have in the bag yet — approach play. While Finau’s recent form is not good, this course feels like a great place to get his season kickstarted.

Sahith Theegala +3300 (FanDuel)

Theegala is another player I want to target throughout the season. On this course, he makes plenty of sense with his skill set and his price point.

Theegala finds himself in the top 5 in putting, P4: 450-500, and Proximity from 200+ yards. The plurality of Par 4s on this course will be of this range, and the proximity from this distance will also help on Par 3s. While Theegala missed the cut last week, he has back-to-back strong finishes at this event, including his 4th place finish last year.

While he broke out at the Fortinet, Theegala is another golfer on our radar for the duration of the season. We include him on FanDuel.

Luke List +8000 (PointsBet)

List is playing pretty well and has already shown the necessary skills to excel at Torrey Pines. A longer hitter and exquisite ball striker, List will always beg the question: will he putt this week?

Poa is one surface where List loses the least strokes. He doesn’t have a surface where he doesn’t lose over his career. That said, when he won in 2022, List gained 3 strokes on the greens at Torrey Pines South. Whenever List gains, he is a threat to win a tournament.

At this price, I don’t mind taking a shot on a previous winner in solid form.

2024 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Card

Farmers Insurance Open Total Units in Play – 2.5 units

2024 Net Units: -2.3

Good luck with all of your golf betting picks and DFS lineups this week.

Image Credit: Getty Images