2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship Forecast and Projections
We’re teeing off for the FedEx St. Jude Championship this week outside of Memphis, TN, and it looks like the worst of the weather happens just before the tournament gets started.
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As usual in my Golf weather forecasts, we’re focusing more on wind than rain. While rain can halt play if it’s heavy enough, it also helps soften and slow the course, which helps as much as it hurts. With wind, there’s no helpful side; it’s all negative impact. And the impact can lead to dramatic differences in scoring. My goal is always to try and highlight the time frame with the lightest winds, the time with the strongest winds, and to see if there’s a cumulative advantage for one wave over another. You can then use this to your advantage when making your picks on DFS sites and sportsbooks.
For the latest info as the FedEx St. Jude Championship forecast changes, stay tuned to @KevinRothWx on Twitter or check my main forecast page.
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FedEx St. Jude Championship Weather Report & Forecast
Round 1 Weather Projection – Thursday, August 10th
The worst of the weather happens overnight Wednesday into very early Thursday (before golfers tee off), with widespread storms and gusty winds. By tee time, the bulk of that will be cleared, though a lingering shower or storm isn’t fully out of the question. I think the winds will be relaxing too as we head through the morning, perhaps 10mph for the earliest tee times, but down closer to 5mph for most of the morning. By the afternoon, we should stay around 5mph sustained with slightly stronger gusts and just a low chance for a shower or storm.
Round 2 Weather Projection – Friday, August 11th
All in all pretty nice weather, a chance for a stray storm, winds 0-5mph through the morning, 5-10mph in the afternoon.
Round 3 Weather Projection – Saturday, August 12th
A typical weather pattern here, winds 5-10mph to start, increasing to close to 15mph by the afternoon with stronger gusts. This will be the breeziest sustained timeframe of winds of the tournament (it may be slightly gustier very early Thursday, but that will be short-lived).
Round 4 Weather Projection – Sunday, August 13th
A nice way to close it out with dry weather and fairly light (5-10mph) winds.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Weather Forecast
As I mentioned in the intro, when it comes to finding a usable and predictable edge for PGA, wind matters a lot more than rain. In the case of The FedEx St. Jude Championship, I think we just missed out on a big advantage by the storm being mostly cleared Thursday AM. As it stands, I think any weather advantage would be slight (if at all), but I would ever so slightly prefer a Thurs PM / Fri AM build, with the hope that maybe the early winds Thursday hold up better than what I’m seeing from forecast models. Stay tuned to @KevinRothWx for the latest.