Fontaine's Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 6

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2013-10-13 06:05:18

Bryan Fontaine (BryanFontaine on RotoGrinders) is regarded as one of the best dynasty minds in the business. He is the Dynasty Editor and a Senior Writer for PFF Fantasy at ProFootballFocus.

Each week I will recommend several players that are primed for big performances when you look deeper at the numbers and trends. With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone won’t give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups.

Last week was a train wreck for my recommendations, so I will own up to that – I’m sorry if I led you on the wrong path. Batting .333 in baseball is impressive but not in making player suggestions. Terrance Williams ended up being the best call along with Terrelle Pryor and even Pettigrew didn’t hurt you if you went the cheaper route at tight end. Of course the injury to Calvin Johnson was the big shocker that we didn’t anticipate and it sent ripple effects down to Stafford and Bush as well. Of course I had Johnson in every DFS lineup and needed to make a last minute switch with every possible wide receiver available to me based on his No. 1 salary. Yeah, I went with Demaryius Thomas over Dez Bryant. Ouch.

Anyways, the best part of daily fantasy football is you can start fresh every week and learn from mistakes and missteps the week before. Let’s get to it. Here are my picks for Week 6:

Note: Hit the ($) icon for player prices this week

Tony Romo – (QB) Cowboys vs. WAS

Kudos to you if you had Romo in your lineup last week in that barnburner with Denver. I’m always wary of going back to the well to chase last week’s points, but Romo’s hot streak is undeniable. He’s off to the best start of his career (with his fourth quarter pick not withstanding). His efficiency rates on a per game basis are shattering his career marks:

(Table is sortable)

He is averaging a surprising 7 more fantasy points per game than at any of his previous five seasons. His fantasy points per opportunity (FP divided by drop backs and rushing attempts) also put him in some rare air this season, just a step below Peyton Manning. The big reason for his success has been his uptick in red zone touchdowns. Dallas has shifted their red zone focus to their passing game this year, and Romo has benefited. Rather than rely on the ground game, Romo is throwing almost two touchdowns inside the 20 yard line each week.

It just so happens that his Week 6 opponent in Washington has surrendered six red zone touchdowns through four games. I’d bank on Romo keeping pace there. The Redskins have also allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67 percent of their attempts for an average box score line of 323 yards/2.3 TD/0.5 INT per game. Romo is my second ranked quarterback this week and ranks an average of fourth in salary at FanDuel, DraftStreet and DraftKings. He’s worth the price tag if you spend on quarterback this week.

Projection:

Alex Smith – (QB) Chiefs vs. OAK

I was fairly surprised to see Smith’s salary so low across the board – especially since he’s a consensus top-10 option in a good matchup with Oakland. We know that Smith is limited as a passer, but his newfound scrambling propensity is what makes him intriguing here. Smith has scrambled on 11 percent of his drop backs this year. His 24 scrambles account for 86 percent of his 28 total rushing attempts for 127 yards. From 2009 to 2012, Smith only scrambled on 4 percent of his drop backs. This strong trend will continue against Oakland.

Oakland hasn’t seen a scrambling quarterback per say, and have only allowed opposing passers to scramble on 3 percent of their drop backs. However, if we exclude kneel downs, the Raiders have allowed 5.3 yards per carry to quarterbacks. Oakland also doesn’t have the worst pass defense in the league but still allow 286 yards and two passing touchdowns per game. This one is setting up nicely for Smith to be one of the best value plays of the weekend.

Projection:

Geno Smith – (QB) Jets vs. PIT

Now we’ve come to the flier section of the quarterback recommendations. Smith is fresh off of a strong performance in the Georgia Dome with razor-like efficiency. He scored slightly more than a fantasy point each time he dropped back with an 80 percent completion percentage, 199 yards and three touchdowns. He also added 21 rushing yards for good measure.
The Steelers boast a statistically strong pass defense, but they haven’t really been tested yet. The fact that Matt Cassel lit them up for 248 passing yards tells you all you need to know. Further skewing their numbers are the 125 passing yards to Jake Locker and the 159 yards to Jay Cutler.

The Jets defense will put Smith in some favorable situations because of their stingy run defense and a strong likelihood that Roethlisberger turns the ball over multiple times. Don’t forget that Smith is a strong threat to scramble (7% of his drop backs) and the Steelers allow quarterbacks to scramble five percent of the time. Advantage Smith.

Projection:

DeMarco Murray – (RB) Cowboys vs. WAS

As I stated above, the Cowboys are passing more in the red zone. It has suppressed Murray’s rushing touchdowns, but it is offset with his increased participation in the passing game.

Murray has more consistency than most featured running backs at the quarter mark of the football season. He was able to secure a rushing touchdown in the shootout with Denver last week, but faces a much easier task with the Redskins this week. Washington is allowing 120 yards and a touchdown each week to running backs, including 5 receptions for 48 yards out of the backfield as well. The Redskins have also missed 24 tackles on running back carries, or simply put, there is a 24 percent chance they miss a tackle on each carry. When you factor in that Murray has gained 230 of his 399 rushing yards after first contact, and he’s set for a big fantasy day.

Projection:

Knowshon Moreno – (RB) Broncos vs. JAX

The Jacksonville run defense is just too horrible to pass up each week going forward – making Moreno a great option in a game with one of the largest point spreads in recent memory. The Jaguars are just bad. They’ve missed 30 tackles on 132 rushing attempts and allow 128 rushing yards per game. Even the inept Rams’ backfield rushed for 139 yards last week.

This game is going to be in hand before the fourth quarter and Moreno will be a big part of the early game plan. And the supposed RBBC appears to be gone as well. Moreno took 65 percent of the running back snaps last week – leaving only five snaps to rookie Montee Ball.

Projection:

Danny Woodhead – (RB) Chargers vs. IND

Danny Woodhead has been a pleasant surprise this season, and now draws a matchup against the Colts where he will have another big week. If you are reluctant to use him at this point, consider the following player comparison:

¹ – Target Rate per Snap
² – Target Rate per Pass Route Run

Which is Player A and Player B? No guesses? Well Player A is Darren Sproles and Player B is Danny Woodhead. Woodhead is seeing more targets and a higher rate than the best pass catching running back in the league. Anything that Woodhead gets running the football is gravy, just as it with Sproles.

The matchup and potential game script with the Colts is ideal for Woodhead. The Colts are allowing 78 yards and less than a touchdown to opposing running backs but they haven’t faced a pass catching specialist like him yet. Woodhead caught 9 passes last week in a losing effort and could see a similar day. If Ryan Mathews sits with his concussion, Woodhead could see over 20 touches.

Projection:

Andre Johnson – (WR) Texans vs. STL

Andre Johnson is questionable for this week, although he says he will play through his shin injury. It may be playing roulette with the injury concerns, especially a week after Calvin Johnson hit us hard.

Johnson has a get well game against a weak St. Louis secondary. Plenty of wide receivers have had big days in recent weeks, especially the lowly Jaguars where Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts came up big. The secondary is banged up, but it won’t matter who the Rams trot out there. All three of the primary cornerbacks have allowed at least 10 yards per reception and a combined six touchdowns:

(Table is sortable)

With Owen Daniels out at least eight weeks and “Matt Schaub(player-profile)”:/players/Matt_Schaub-11616’s confidence teetering on the brink, expect the Texans to set up some easy play-action passes downfield in Johnson’s direction. I’m rolling him out in every lineup this weekend (if healthy).

Projection:

Keenan Allen – (WR) Chargers vs. IND

If you want the best minimum salary player on FanDuel this weekend, Keenan Allen is your guy. He’s assumed the role starting outside opposite Vincent Brown and is the better downfield option. The ease with how Allen is getting open and gaining yards after the catch coupled with “Philip Rivers(player-profile)”:/players/Philip_Rivers-11603’ resurgence means you need to find a spot for him. His aDOT has gradually increased week by week and he’s becoming more dangerous in the open field – 34 of his 115 receiving yards last week came after the catch.

As with the Woodhead mention, the Chargers have an opportunity to put plenty of fantasy points up against the Colts. The game script will be a shootout or comeback attempt because of the porous San Diego defense, so the pass attempts will be there. The Colts can be stingy to opposing wideouts and have allowed 11/138/1 each week, though they do give up plenty of YAC too (52 yards per week). Allen won’t be this much of a value for much longer, especially with the secret getting out that he isn’t your typical rookie.

Projection:

Stephen Hill – (WR) Jets vs. PIT

Hill is another deep flier I like this week. Two weeks ago he was knocked out of the game early with a concussion and somehow made it back for the Week 5 matchup with Atlanta on Monday night. It’s clear the lack of practice limited his participation in the game plan but when the team needed him the most in the fourth quarter, he came up big with two grabs on the final drive which ultimately led to the game-winning field goal.

With a full week of practice and another week removed from his concussion, Hill is primed to resume his breakout campaign and the various sites have graciously lowered his price for us in the meantime. A matchup is in the cards with Ike Taylor, who primarily shadowed similar receivers to Hill in A.J. Green and Brandon Marshall in previous weeks. He held them in check for the most part with a combined 10 receptions for 97 yards – though that does include a 41-yard reception from Marshall in Week 3.
If you are feeling lucky this weekend, you could do much worse than Hill. He’s worth the flier and his ownership will be low in tournaments.

Projection

Garrett Graham – (TE) Texans vs. STL

This one might seem too obvious, but for the price, it would be a shame not to have Graham in your lineup. Matt Schaub has had well documented struggles so far, but he’s still leaned on his tight ends (Daniels and Graham) on 30 percent of his throws. We know that Daniels is out for at least eight weeks, so it’s Graham’s show now. Both players have essentially split looks so far – though Daniels had the slight edge in production. The advanced metrics are so close for both that it wouldn’t be far-fetched to think Graham can equal Daniels’ top-10 numbers beginning this week.

The Rams have been susceptible to the pass so far this season, though no tight end has really stood out against them and they have faced the likes of Vernon Davis and Tony Gonzalez already. Combined together, tight ends are averaging 4/47/0.4 TD against the Rams so far. That is on the low end of what to expect this week from Graham. The Texans are desperate for a win and the team will want to play well for Schaub, whose starting job is now in question.

Projection:

Heath Miller – (TE) Steelers at NYJ

Miller makes a worthwhile flier this week for a team that is going to need to throw the football to have a chance of winning. He’s been slowly getting back to full speed after his injury and Roethlisberger is targeting him just as frequently as he did last season. Throwing out Weeks 1 and 2 when Tampa Bay and New England were allergic to throwing to their tight end, the Jets have allowed opposing tight ends to pick them apart on underneath routes to the tune of 7/68/1 each week since. Look for Miller to see 6-8 targets this week with similar success.

Projection: