FREE NBA DFS Picks: 1/23 - DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo
After a huge slate of games on Wednesday, we dial it down with only three matchups on the daily fantasy basketball slate for Thursday. Oddsmakers tend to think each game should be competitive, as the Lakers are the biggest favorites on the NBA odds board yet are only laying five points.
Without further delay, let’s check out who the projections think will smash their salary implied value tonight!
Top DraftKings DFS Value Pick – High Smash Probability
Bradley Beal
DK Salary:$7,700.00
FPTS Projection:41.4
FPTS Ceiling:62.51
Early Projected Ownership:Very High
Per our range of outcomes projections, we expect Bradley Beal to smash for DraftKings GPP value in roughly 40.65% of his outcomes.
— We currently project 32 minutes and 1.29 fantasy points per minute.
— The Cleveland Cavaliers allow 4.60% fpts/gm above average.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 33.81% USG Rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 6.75% rebound rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 27.81% assist rate.
It is fair to have concern over Beal’s playing time of 38 minutes last night, but a DraftKings price point of just $7,700 on a short slate makes it easy to forgive. We only project 32 minutes for him tonight, and he still checks in as a high potential “smash” play. Per our NBA Defense vs. Archetype Matchup Tool, scorers have been feasting on the Wizards over the past two weeks. The Cavs also feature multiple individual perimeter defenders with negative DRPM values. Only Tristan Thompson grades well on defense this season, and Beal need not score at the basket to have a big fantasy game (though we aren’t scared of Thompson as a rim protector anyway). Beal has a massive assist rate and can crush with even a modest outside shooting performance. It will be difficult to fade Beal in this matchup and on this slate size.
Top FanDuel DFS Value Pick – High Smash Probability
Kevin Love
FD Salary:$7,000.00
FPTS Projection:40.21
FPTS Ceiling:55.09
Early Projected Ownership:Very High
Per our range of outcomes projections, we expect Kevin Love to smash for FanDuel GPP value in roughly 32.84% of his outcomes.
— We currently project 32 minutes and 1.26 fantasy points per minute.
— The Washington Wizards allow 5.68% fpts/gm above average.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 25.41% USG Rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 19.27% rebound rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 13.54% assist rate.
The Wizards have created the 2nd-best fantasy scoring environment in the entire league this season, behind only the Atlanta Hawks. This will make it very difficult to ignore Kevin Love despite the fact that more than half of your opponents will also own him on FanDuel tonight in GPPs. The Wizards unsurprisingly rank as the 3rd-softest DVA matchup to Versatile Big men like Love, and allow players of this type to fire off 8% higher usage than the league average. They also allow incredible efficiency, boosting shooting percentage by 12.5%. To cap it off, one of Love’s primary path’s to a big game comes in the rebounding department. The Wizards as a team allow an above average rate of rebounding, and in particular, Versatile Bigs have been able to grab a whopping 22% more rebounds than average. Nobody is a lock to smash value, but Love leads the way on FanDuel based on today’s pricing.
Top Yahoo! DFS Value Pick – High Smash Probability
Collin Sexton
Yahoo Salary:$23.00
FPTS Projection:33.1
FPTS Ceiling:46.34
Early Projected Ownership:Very High
Per our range of outcomes projections, we expect Collin Sexton to smash for Yahoo GPP value in roughly 27.43% of his outcomes.
— We currently project 35 minutes, and 0.95 fantasy points per minute.
— The Washington Wizards allow 5.68% fpts/gm above average.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 28.51% USG Rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 5.05% rebound rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 13.99% assist rate.
Sexton isn’t the true “top” smash play on Yahoo. Larry Nance and Cedi Osman are both priced at the minimum salary, and as per usual there are multiple players grossly underpriced at or near the salary floor. That being said, Sexton gets the nod on this slate because of the combination of matchup, minutes, recent rate stats, and high Smash%. Our projections are in line with the kind of rates we have been seeing from Sexton lately. He is actually ahead of Kevin Love in usage, and is showing a slight uptick in the assist rate. That’s cool, but on a 3-game slate we are really just here for the minutes. Sexton has played 33+ minutes in 10 out of his last 11 games. In the game he missed hitting that mark, the Cavs were down 33 points in the 4th quarter and he was simply rested during his final rotation. He’s a near stone lock to see huge minutes, and this would be the kind of matchup where he could flash his ceiling. $23 is simply too cheap for him on a slate like this, and he provides you a very nice floor/ceiling combination.