FREE NBA DFS Picks 3/9: Smash Plays for FanDuel, DraftKings, Yahoo
Welcome back to another week of NBA DFS action on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. It’s a small three-game slate on tap tonight, and here at RotoGrinders we are fully geared up with advice on how to attack it.
Our NBA projections, cheat sheets, core plays, projected ownership, injury reports, and matchup tools are ready to roll for tonight’s games. Below, you’ll find a “smash play” for each of these three DFS websites. We power the LineupHQ optimizer utilizing information just like that which is displayed here, and we encourage you to visit our DFS content schedule to see all we have to offer for tonight’s action.
Without further delay, let’s check out who the projections think will smash their salary implied value tonight!
Top DraftKings DFS Value Pick – High Smash Probability
Eric Bledsoe
DK Salary:$5,700.00
FPTS Projection:35.23
FPTS Ceiling:49.32
Early Projected Ownership:Very High
Per our range of outcomes projections, we expect Eric Bledsoe to smash for DraftKings GPP value in roughly 38.73% of his outcomes.
— We currently project 30 minutes and 1.17 fantasy points per minute.
— The Denver Nuggets allow -3.36% fpts/gm below average.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 27.46% USG Rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 9.26% rebound rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 34.60% assist rate.
As you can see, the Denver Nuggets are an extremely difficult fantasy matchup as they allow -3.36% fpts/gm below average but life without Giannis Antetokounmpo results in a huge rate boosts for Eric Bledsoe in all categories. Bledsoe didn’t disappoint in a similar spot yesterday – albeit much better matchup – posting a 28/7/3 line in Antetkounmpo’s absence against the Phoenix and is in line for another heavy workload against the Nuggets. RG early projections are currently expecting a 27.46% USG rate for Bledsoe which may actually be a tad pessimistic as Bledsoe’s usage has jumped to 32.6% in 469.6 minutes with Antetokounmpo off the court this season. Either way, Bledsoe is a strong candidate to smash at his measly $5,700 price tag.
Top FanDuel DFS Value Pick – High Smash Probability
Trae Young
FD Salary:$9,600.00
FPTS Projection:48.84
FPTS Ceiling:67.40
Early Projected Ownership:Very High
Per our range of outcomes projections, we expect Trae Young to smash for FanDuel GPP value in roughly 27.69% of his outcomes.
— We currently project 36 minutes and 1.36 fantasy points per minute.
— The Charlotte Hornets allow 1.72% fpts/gm above average.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 31.27% USG Rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 7.61% rebound rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 49.17% assist rate.
Trae Young is coming off a couple of his worst fantasy games of the season but is in line to rebound against a Charlotte Hornets team that allows 1.72% fpts/gm above average. Notably, Young had been dealing with an illness but isn’t listed on Monday’s injury report which bodes well for his conditioning. Charlotte’s slowest pace in the league does give me some concerns in terms of potential overall volume but it’s tough to get picky on a 3-game slate.
Top Yahoo! DFS Value Pick – High Smash Probability
Khris Middleton
Yahoo Salary:$29.00
FPTS Projection:41.58
FPTS Ceiling:61.12
Early Projected Ownership:Very High
Per our range of outcomes projections, we expect Khris Middleton to smash for Yahoo GPP value in roughly 35.33% of his outcomes.
— We currently project 32 minutes, and 1.30 fantasy points per minute.
— The Denver Nuggets allow -3.36% fpts/gm below average.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 29.86% USG Rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 11.09% rebound rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 31.13% assist rate.
I ran through why Eric Bledsoe has a high smash probability above and the same is true for Khris Middleton who carries an even bigger offensive load in Antetkounmpo’s absence. Similar to Bledsoe, RG’s early projections may be a tad light on Middleton’s USG Rate as it’s spiked to 34% in 665.5 minutes with Giannis off the court this season (he posted a massive 41.7% usage rate yesterday). As with Bledsoe, the matchup against Denver is far from good but Middleton’s volume should help trump efficiency in this spot.