FREE PREMIUM: NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Tuesday, April 12th
Hello Grinders. I’ll be with you for this NBA DFS playoff stretch, breaking down each slate. We’re going to change up the format a bit for the playoffs from our traditional Core Plays article more to a Playoff Primer article. With teams beginning to play each other over a series, we felt it would be more impactful to dive into trends, news, injuries and Game Flow Tracker data as the series progress. Coaching staffs tend to make adjustments as the series goes on, and so the goal is to see if we can identify potential trends before changes happen.
Update – Luke Kennard has been ruled out.
With the playoffs here, we’re also going to start seeing tight rotations and heavy minutes for the starters. This is going to be especially true for today and tomorrow’s Play-In games where the margin for error is slim. The loser of the #7 and #8 game does get the benefit of playing an extra game to stay alive, but the #9 and #10 seeds play a win-or-go-home game. Given that, we should expect to see the tightest rotations in these #9 vs #10 elimination games. Both games on Tuesday feature the #7 vs #8 teams in the East and West, so all four teams do have the benefit of playing another game to stay alive if they lose on Tuesday.
Let’s dive into each game on this two-game Tuesday slate:
#7 Cleveland Cavaliers vs #8 Brooklyn Nets (7pm EST)
Previous Matchups
CLE 107 – BKN 118 (April 8, 2022) Game Flow
BKN 107 – CLE 114 (Jan 17, 2022) Game Flow
BKN 117 – CLE 112 (Nov 22, 2021) Game Flow
CLE 99 – BKN 109 (Nov 17, 2021) Game Flow
Cavaliers Key Injuries
Out
Collin Sexton
Dean Wade
Jarrett Allen
Nets Key Injuries
Probable
Goran Dragic
Seth Curry
Analysis
In a bit of a twist, Goran Dragic cleared health protocols on Monday, meaning both he and Seth Curry are eligible to play. It’s unclear what type of role he’ll have in this series but my guess is he’ll share backup guard duties with Patty Mills. Dragic’s return is bad news for guys like Cam Thomas, who was already on the outside looking in and are is more unlikely to sniff the court in this game.
The Nets won the season series 3-1 but note that Jarrett Allen was present in just two of those games, while their very first game this season on Nov 17, 2021 was missing key players on both sides. Because of these factors, I’m not sure we can take away too much from their first three matchups. Perhaps the biggest clue on how both teams approach this game is using the Game Flow Tracker from just two games ago when they played on April 8, 2022.
Below is the Cavs’ Game Flow Tracker from that game. A couple of things stand out to me. The first is that they essentially used a nine-man rotation, where Dylan Windler was the odd-man out. Moses Brown also got kicked out of the rotation despite being their starting center just a few games ago, as Evan Mobley retook the starting role. Looking at the Game Flow data, we see that Lamar Stevens was the direct sub for Mobley, meaning during the times Mobley was off the court, the Cavs decided to go smaller and have Kevin Love act as the backup center while Stevens serves as a forward. If they continue to roll with this type of plan and have Moses Brown out of the rotation, I’d personally have some kind of rule in LineupHQ or stagger my lineups so that Mobley and Allen don’t appear in the same lineup. My guess is if one is having a big game, it’s at the expense of the other.
The biggest wild card for me in this game is how the Cavs decide to use Rajon Rondo. We know Rondo thrives in the playoffs, but the Game Flow Tracker shows he just picked up some backup minutes to Darius Garland in this game against the Nets. I doubt that Garland or Caris LeVert would lose minutes in this game, so really the main way I can see a route to Rondo picking up more minutes is if they go with more three-guard looks and cut the playing time of Isaac Okoro. Similarly to what I said above with Mobley/Love, I’d probably set some rule with Okoro/Rondo to stagger them and not have them in the same lineups in case Rondo does get some extended playing time here as Okoro’s expense.
Now looking at the Nets side, it’s worth noting that there was no Goran Dragic in this game, and both David Duke and Cam Thomas were basically garbage time bodies. With Dragic back for this game he likely siphons away some minutes in the second unit from Patty Mills. The Nets used an eight-man rotation in this game and made LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin and Day’Ron Sharpe as DNP-CDs. It’s definitely possible we see Aldridge enter the rotation if one of Andre Drummond or Nic Claxton get hurt or into foul trouble, but for now I’m under the assumption they run with a nine-man rotation with Dragic back and all of Aldridge, Griffin and Sharpe are not in the rotation.
#7 Los Angeles Clippers vs #8 Minnesota Timberwolves (9:30pm EST)
Clippers Key Injuries
Out
Jason Preston
Jay Scrubb
Kawhi Leonard
Questionable
Luke Kennard
Timberwolves Key Injuries
None
Previous Matchups
MIN 122 – LAC 104 (Jan 3, 2022) Game Flow
MIN 102 – LAC 129 (Nov 13, 2021) Game Flow
LAC 104 – MIN 84 (Nov 5, 2021) Game Flow
LAC 126 – MIN 115 (Nov 3, 2021) Game Flow
MIN 128 – LAC 100 (Oct 11, 2021) Game Flow
Analysis
As you can see from the Game Flow Tracker data, these two teams have not played each other in three months, so I’m not sure those previous Game Flow Trackers will be much help. The big news here is that Luke Kennard is questionable with a hamstring injury he suffered on the last game of the regular season. Below is a CourtIQ run of the Clippers this season with Kennard off the court:
I was surprised to see Brandon Boston benefits the most but I can’t imagine he’d get many rotation minutes in this game, if at all. Next on that list of who gets the biggest usage bump when Kennard is out is Robert Covington. It makes some sense, as Covington would no longer have to share the second unit with Kennard and would take on a larger role.
I was curious how the Clippers have been running their rotations lately so I went back to the second-to-last regular season game against the Kings. Below is the Game Flow Tracker. It’s unclear to me right now whether Norman Powell rejoins the starting lineup for this game or if they use him off the bench. If Kennard can’t go, I could see the Clippers choosing to bring Powell off the bench as their main 6th man, and then Powell likely closes the game for someone like Nicolas Batum. Powell missed the last two months with a foot injury and has only seen minute totals of 23 and 22 since returning, which is why I do wonder if they keep him in the second unit to manage his workload to some degree.
Let’s now move on to the Timberwolves. The big news here is that nobody is on their injury report. D’Angelo Russell missed their last game due to an illness but he’s good to go. I had to spend some time digging through the Game Flow Trackers to find the last time the starting unit was all together for Minnesota. It seems lately that there was always one of D’Angelo Russell, Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards or Patrick Beverley missing a game. The best I could find is their game against the Nuggets two weeks ago on April 1. Below we see the Timberwolves used a tight eight-man rotation. Given the importance of this game in the standings against the Nuggets at the time, this may suggest to me the Timberwolves will do something similar on Tuesday.
I’ll call out that all of Jaylen Nowell, Josh Okogie, Jake Layman and Nathan Knight were DNP-CDs. The Nowell DNP-CD surprised me given he’s been such a big part of this rotation, but it’s possible Jordan McLaughlin is ahead of him in the pecking order. I don’t know what kind of role Nowell has in this game, but it does seem like a decent idea to be cautious of your exposure if you use him as a punt.
Also worth noting is that Taurean Prince doesn’t always close games but it seems like the Timberwolves went to him down the stretch in favor of Jarred Vanderbilt. I checked the game log and Vanderbilt wasn’t dealing with any foul trouble, so it does seem like they were riding Prince’s hot hand or just preferred him in this matchup. Prince makes for an interesting GPP target here in the event he sees a larger role in the playoffs than we expect.
Primary Targets
I didn’t want to use the term “core plays” here because given it’s a small two-game slate and rotations will be condensed, it’s going to be harder to get different in these large field tournaments. And as a result, I don’t want to necessarily plant my flags on one or two players like we’d normally do on a typical slate. The playoffs aren’t typical slates anymore.
I will also point out that because it’s two games, there is even more merit to game stacking in the event one game blows out, or in the event one game goes into overtime. So don’t be afraid to get a little weird. With that said, here are two players I’d consider primary targets on this slate:
Caris LeVert (FanDuel specific) – I don’t know what LeVert did over at FanDuel, proud sponsor of Crunch Time, but they continue to price him down despite the fact he’s now a starter with no minute restrictions. On FanDuel, LeVert is only $5,400. To put this into perspective, Robert Covington is $5,300 on FanDuel, and Covington is a reserve player. CourtIQ shows that this season when all of Jarrett Allen, Dean Wade and Collin Sexton have been off the court, LeVert has averaged 0.89 fantasy points per minute and has been third on the team with a 23.1% usage rate. If the Cavs go with a tight rotation and he can get to minutes in the upper 30s, I like LeVert at this price tag.
Reggie Jackson (FanDuel specific) – Like LeVert, Jackson feels too cheap on FanDuel at just $5,700. He does take a hit with Paul George and Norman Powell back, but this is still someone who is grading out with the 2nd highest RG Value on FanDuel in our early projections. Jackson has averaged 0.92 fantasy points per minute this season and if he hits the 36 minute projection we’re pegging him for on this slate, he should pay off this price tag. For the record, he averaged just 31.2 minutes per game in the regular season but I think mid-30s is very realistic here in a play-in game. This is simply another spot where I feel the player is too cheap for his expected role and playing time. Also monitor the status of Luke Kennard, who is questionable, as his potential absence would condense this guard rotation in LA even more.
Bruce Brown (DraftKings specific) – It’s crazy to think that Brown is a primary target as this is someone who has let us down as chalk plenty of times, but with the Nets’ playoff seeding on the line down the stretch in the regular season, Brown got all the run he could handle. In the final four games, Brown played 33, 33, 40 and 38 minutes. He’s coming off back-to-back games of 40+ fantasy points and his role is secure. He’s not an elite per-minute producer (0.92 fantasy points per minute) but this is the same argument that I used with Reggie Jackson above, who actually has the same point-per-minute output. Brown is going to see as many minutes as he can handle in this game, and if he gets close to the 37 minutes we’re projecting him for, that’s a solid floor at $5,800.
In terms of the studs, I’m not going to plant my flag on any of Karl-Anthony Towns, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving or Paul George. George’s price is by far the most appealing to me and my favorite for tournaments. My favorite “get weird” plays are probably Norman Powell (in case he gets more run than we expect) and Taurean Prince. Thanks for reading and good luck tonight. May variance be on your side.
Thanks for reading and good luck tonight. May variance be on your side.
Image Credit: Imagn