From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Monday, September 10th
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to succeed in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.
Last week, RotoGrinders launched a new sports betting app and site, Sharp Side. One of the earliest available features is the ability to track plays. Many more tools and features are to come.
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Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Check back later once lineups start to roll out for updates.
MLB
Indians/Rays 7 Under (-102) (FD) 1.02 units to win 2.02
Rays +140 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.4
Cardinals 8 Over (-134) (FD) 1.34 units to win 2.34
White Sox/Royals 8.5 Under (-107) (DK) 1.07 units to win 2.07
Pirates +118 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.18
Rangers +118 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.18
Giants +105 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.05
NFL
Rams -6 (-110) (FD) 1.1 units to win 2.1
Daily Special Moneyline Parlay Lions and Rams +150 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.5
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8 PM Final Update
Adding three more dogs tonight. As mentioned earlier, Adam Wainwright hasn’t pitched in months and the St Louis pen has been awful. Already played the total, going to side with the dog here as well.
In the two west coast matchups, I feel the pitching is even. In the A.L. game, I can’t see either team having much of a bullpen or lineup advantage either. Minor has been going a bit deeper into games than Barria though. There looks to be some reverse line movement in this game as well. Newcomb has been really struggling. The Atlanta pen has a 3.54 FIP (9.9 K-BB%) over the last month, but they’re the only pen below a four FIP (13 of them) below a 14 K-BB%. The San Francisco lineup is not very appealing, but the Braves have just a 95 wRC+ vs RHP as well.
Pirates +118 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.18
Rangers +118 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.18
Giants +105 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.05
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6:30 ET Update
Current action on the late NFL games forces me to add another update much earlier than expected. I’m a Raider fan and more specifically, the Jon Gruden Raiders era was one of my favorite periods as a fan. He’s still a fairly young guy as far as coaches go, but he’s either tanking or out of his mind with this roster construction going into the season. The line has been steaming upwards all day. I was hoping to see some Oakland buyback, but it’s not up to 6.5 on both DraftKings and Sugar Hill. I’m going to grab one unit on the Rams now on FanDuel, where it’s still -6 and perhaps some more if it comes back down again.
Additionally, I already mentioned I had a moneyline Round Robin in play involving the Lions and Rams as the last two of seven teams tonight. However, FanDuel is running a Daily Special Parlay tonight with both favorites on the moneyline for +150. There’s definite value here. To illustrate, if one were to take the Lions (-290) and Rams (-260) and tried to parlay them on your own, the payoff would be -117, meaning 1.17 units would win 2.17 units. With the daily special, this moneyline parlay on the favorites would pay out 2.5 units risking 1 unit.
Rams -6 (-110) (FD) 1.1 units to win 2.1
Daily Special Moneyline Parlay Lions and Rams +150 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.5
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6PM ET Update
All except the two west coast lineups are in, so it’s time to get to work and do some line shopping. We have a clear remaining forecast, but no umpire assignments yet. With bettors still focusing on football tonight, there may not be heavy MLB line movement in the next couple of hours, but that’s just a guess. I could be completely wrong.
In the earlier update, I mentioned liking the price on the home team in Tampa Bay. I expect a low scoring game, which gives the dog some value if they can keep it close with Corey Kluber in the game. I like the line movement on both the Rays and the total here. This is the only 7pm play tonight. FanDuel has the best line for the total. We have to move to Sugar House for the best line on the dog.
These were two totals I hinted at earlier too. In St Louis, we have a negative run environment and quality contact manager in the opposing pitcher. However, Adam Wainwright is starting his first game since May and the St Louis bullpen has a 3.8 K-BB% over the last month with a FIP nearing five. We have a decision to make here because FanDuel is the lowest at 8 runs, but with extra juice. In Kansas City, Jakob Junis has been pitching very well. Lucas Giolito has been as well until punishing me for taking him as a favorite in his last start. The total has moved down half a run to 8.5 here with slightly more action on the over, which I feel good about. With similar lines on all three sites, let’s throw this one to DraftKings for old times sake.
I really don’t have any particular interest in any other sides tonight, but will have another update on west coast games, including NFL, once lineups are out within the next hour or so.
Indians/Rays 7 Under (-102) (FD) 1.02 units to win 2.02
Rays +140 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.4
Cardinals 8 Over (-134) (FD) 1.34 units to win 2.34
White Sox/Royals 8.5 Under (-107) (DK) 1.07 units to win 2.07
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4:30 ET Update
I have no interest in either of the early MLB games, off the main DFS slate. Both have very large favorites. There are now just two 7pm MLB games along with an NFL game. I have interest in one right now. The Rays have been 44-24 at home this year and playing as well as any team since the break. It’s a tough assignment in Cory Kluber tonight, but he’s still not what he was last year even if he’s pitching better recently. The Rays are getting a decent price at home tonight. I’m gong to wait and watch line movement for a bit.
Mentioned below, I already have a moneyline parlay in play on the Lions tonight (not recorded here) but can’t find any additional reason to like this game at 6.5-7 points or a 44.5 total. Too much turnover and unknown for both teams.
I’m also looking at the totals in the two games in the state of Missouri among the 8pm starts. Todays MLB alerts should give a clue which way I’m leaning on both. More later.
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Friday’s recap:
Cubs/Nationals 9.5 Over (-110) 1.1 units to win 2.1 PPD
Tigers +130 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.3 W +1.3
Astros -108 (FD) 1.08 units to win 2.08 W +1
Giants/Brewers 8.5 Under (-118) (SH) -1.18 units to win 2.18 W +1
Royals +152 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.52 L -1
Angels -110 (FD) 1.1 units to win 2.1 W +1
Late adds via Twitter
Rangers/A’s 9 Over (100) (FD) 1 unit to win 2 W +1
Mariners -112 (SH) 1.12 units to win 2.12 L -1.12
MLB
Day Total 5-2 +3.18
Grand Total 54-55-1 +1.81 units
Sides 29-31 +2.49 units
Totals 26-21-1 +2.71 units
Parlays 1-4 -3.39 units
NFL
Day Total 1-0 +1 unit
Grand Total 1-0 +1 unit
Spread
Totals 1-0 +1 unit
CFB
Day Total
Grand Total 1-2 -1.2 units
Spread 0-2 -2.2 units
Totals 1-0 +1 unit
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Generally, the previous day’s action is recapped here and then we move on. However, it was a very busy weekend and although weekend plays were not recorded here and won’t count towards the record, it could be beneficial to cover an entire recap here and that may be what I’ll do on Monday’s going forward.
Friday’s action included eight games that turned into seven after a PPD. I had mentioned the possibility of buying out of the Royals if it became a profitable option at some point and it did in the third, when they scored six runs to take a 6-2 lead. I did not do so. In the bottom of the third, that lead was gone and the Royals did not score another run.
Thankfully, I did not include the Royals in a seven team (six with the PPD) Round Robin parlay that was not part of Friday’s article and will not be counted. That meant 4-0 going into the two west coast games, which split, but still drew nearly a seven unit profit on the parlay alone.
Considering Friday’s results, a nice DFS cash mid-week and $300 in instant bonuses from the Sugar House and FanDuel books (links above), things were looking good heading into the first full weekend of football after a rocky start.
I know nothing about college football anymore other than there are a LOT of games. This did not stop me from betting it, just that the only real angle I could come at it from was from line movement. Specifically, I was not always playing, but tracking reverse line movement, especially on totals that moved down while there was more action on the over. These went 8-5 this Saturday. When adding back in overs with reverse line movement, I tracked 11 covers and still just the five losses. This did not track number of bets because some of these smaller games can move more easily and skew the results. It did not seem to matter much. Using larger games only, the results did not improve.
I’m not saying that this is a profitable system after only one week, but had I kept to playing only those games, it would have been a much better Saturday. I did not. The result was a loss of over six units on an 8-13 record. The chief regret was a play on Arkansas State, a school I had never even seen play before, getting 37.5 points on the road against the top team in the country over the last decade. They were favored by several trends and a potential “foot off the gas pedal” spot for Alabama.
Alabama does not care about your trends. They may have covered by the end of the first half. Baseball plays, all totals, went 2-1 for the day.
Then the big day was here. NFL opening Sunday. Embracing the fact that I knew nothing about college football, I kept the plays relatively small or at least did not exceed one unit on any bet. NFL is different. I was ready to get completely destroyed. Thankfully, that didn’t happen.
Anyone who’s been reading along for any amount of time know I’m a dog player primarily. Dogs did well on Sunday. I did well. The record was 10-3-2 on sides and totals plus another 2-0 on player props. Parlays profited another four units with one Round Robin still open at 4-1 with the two favorites on the moneyline tonight.
Double unit plays were made on the Giants (+3), Buccaneers (+10), Bengals (+100 on the moneyline), Bengals/Colts Over (47.5), Chiefs/Chargers Over (48), Broncos (-3), and Cowboys/Panthers Under (42). The reason I would trust Eli Manning against maybe the top defense in the league seems to elude me right now. Other than that, things went well. I don’t always play against large favorites, but do feel that they can be over-valued early in the season and remember reading some state that mentioned they don’t often cover. This worked out for Bucs and Bears backers yesterday. Some of these plays were based on line movement, but some of the DFS info I mentioned right here last week came in very handy as well. Not only for where it led me, but what it kept me away from (Bills/Ravens Under due to unfavorable pace of play stats). Baseball plays went 4-2 for a two unit profit as well.
Despite the college football setback, it was a great week. Baseball is back in profit here and sportsbook bonuses increased the bankroll enough to take bigger shots at NFL games this weekend with tremendous results. Line shopping ability has been absolutely crucial because those small dollars and cents add up, especially when making so many plays. One unexpected, but very welcome development was Sugar House (link above) offering -107 on most of their NFL games yesterday. They did not always have the optimal line and I don’t know if this is going to be their structure going forward, but saving 30% on vig is effectively the best rake-back (vig-back?) a player is going to find.
This is already the longest post so far and with a couple of MLB games in the 6PM ET hour tonight plus two MNF games, it’s potentially going to be another busy day of updates here.