From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Thursday, August 30th
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to success in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.
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Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Check back later once lineups start to roll out for updates.
MLB
Angels/Astros 7.5 Under (+102) 1 unit to win 2.02
CFB
NMST/Minnesota 48.5 Over (-108) 1.08 units to win 2.08
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7:45 ET Update
I do believe I botched that MLB totals play. I should have waited. It’s moved right back up to where it opened. Well, it is the most negative run environment in baseball. IIn
San Diego, I just really like German Marquez on the road (as any reader of my pitching articles might know), while the Colorado offense in a negative run environment doesn’t scream over either. This total has dropped too despite more action on the over. The line seems to be making it’s way down, so I’m going to jump on it still at 8 now and hope it does not suffer a similar fate as tonight’s other play.
Rockies/Padres 8 Under (-120) 1.19 units to win 2.19
That’s tonight’s final update here will likely be it overall, though any additional plays will be recorded via Twitter (@FreelanceBBall).
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6:45 ET Update
Added the total in Minnesota because I saw it recently go back up to 49, but remain 48.5 at DK/SH. And because I wanted something to watch. I want to reiterate that I have very little college football knowledge over the last decade. Still one more update in around an hour.
NMST/Minnesota 48.5 Over (-108) 1.08 units to win 2.08
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6:30 ET Upate
I think the line movement in St Louis had to do with Matt Carpenter uncertainty. Pittsburgh has since dropped back down to be the clear dog here. The Under in Houston is an official play now. DK/SH had it at 8 (-118), but I bought down to 7.5 (+102) for the better vig since that’s where it seems to be in other places anyway and I think if we get good Verlander here, he could shut down the Angels completely or continue his HR issues, in which case it goes over by a few runs and the half for the push probably doesn’t matter. In other words, this game might be a lock to land exactly one eight now.
Angels/Astros 7.5 Under (+102) 1 unit to win 2.02
No college football plays yet. One more update in about an hour here.
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5:15 ET Update
All of the non-west coast lineups are in and I haven’t found a single MLB play yet. I’m a bit interested in line movement in St Louis that has Pittsburgh gaining despite drawing much less of the action, but DraftKings/Sugar House already have them at -108, which is much worse than anywhere else. If St Louis ends up the dog there, they may be the team to play. There also seems to be possible reverse line movement in the total in Houston, which I’m not playing now, but keeping an eye on.
Now for the new toy…college football. From just tracking bets and line movement, the Under is being backed a bit more in Minn/NMSt than the Over, but the total has climbed three points from 45.5 to 48.5. New Mexico St looked awful against Wyoming last week, which is probably what bettors casuals might be over-compensating for.
I’ll be back here with one more update before 7pm tonight and probably one more before 8pm.
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Yesterday’s recap:
Orioles -117 1.16 units to win 2.16 W +1
Nationals/Phillies 9 Under (-105) -1.04 units to win 2.04 L -1.04
Pirates/Cardinals 8 Under (-117) 1.16 units to win 2.16 W +1
Pirates +138 1 unit to win 2.38 W +1.38
Dodgers/Rangers 9.5 Under (-104) 1.03 units to win 2.03 W +1
Day Total 4-1 +3.34
Grand Total 29-31-1 0.90 units
Sides 15-15 +4.66 units
Totals 15-15-1 -1.37 units
Parlays 1-3 -2.39 units
Profit! Funny, how two days ago, after a 1-5 showing, I was wondering if this whole experiment was quickly coming to a crashing end and just one quick 10-4 run later, a small profit is being shown for the month/season.
Baltimore was the only game where we had to come from behind, down 4-0 in the middle innings. None of the other four games were ever really even in much doubt. While the line movement in St Louis was confusing, maybe someone knew Matt Carpenter was going to get hurt.
Of course, one bad day ends up back in the red again, so let’s not get too excited.
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I believe I stopped closely following college football around the time I started playing poker and completely stopped sports betting around 12-15 years ago. When my interest in DFS and then advanced stats began around five years later, I stopped paying attention to college football altogether. There’s only so much time in a day and I have great difficulty being a casual fan of anything. If I can’t know everything about a particular subject, I’d rather put my time and effort towards something I can. There was no more room in the brain for college football.
When daily fantasy college football became a thing, it seemed too insane and even more time consuming. How many players would I need to have a good line on? Sports betting, though, is different. You only need to know 130 or teams or so, not…1500 players?
So, the question now, is should I add college football back into the sports betting mix. I have to admit the itch is louder than I thought it would be and I can still remember all the excruciating ways to lose football games (home runs don’t get called back in baseball).
Keep in mind that I’ve read very little and could not look at a single matchup and tell you who should be favored. There will be a steep learning curve, but maybe just tracking the money and line will at least keep me in the game long enough to get the knowledge base updated to where it needs to be.
Let’s see how it goes. I’ll post any college plays along with the baseball ones for today.