From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Thursday, September 6th
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to success in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.
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Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Check back later once lineups start to roll out for updates.
Falcons/Eagles 44.5 Under (-112) (SH) 1.11 units to win 2.11
Cubs Even (SH) 1 unit to win 2
Braves +138 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.38
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6:30 ET Update
First thing to clear up is that it appears I mis-read some information about the defending Super Bowl champions. They actually have fared well when the opening game line has moved against them. I’ve now wavered back and forth so many times on this game that I’ve realized I’d be forcing a play on either side. However, the Eagles have a great defense, while I can’t remember the Falcons ever having a stronger defense. A play on the under seems reasonable here. While I had considered waiting, it looks to be continuing to move down if anything.
On the diamond tonight, I like the Cubs. They’re possibly the best team in the National League and while Stephen Strasburg is the better pitcher when healthy, I’m still not completely sure he is. The swing and miss is back in his game, but the velocity is still down. More importantly, the Nationals are occasionally looking like some players have packed it in already. They did almost return from a six run deficit last night, but still looked lackadaisical at times. The Cubs are the better team with significant bullpen and defensive edges.
Lastly, Anibal Sanchez has equaled Zack Greinke this season in most areas of performance. There would seem to be some value +138.
The better lines come from Sugar House once again in all three instances. That’s all for tonight. Enjoy the NFL opener.
Falcons/Eagles 44.5 Under (-112) (SH) 1.11 units to win 2.11
Cubs Even (SH) 1 unit to win 2
Braves +138 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.38
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Yesterday’s recap:
Reds/Pirates 8.5 Over (-118) 1.18 units to win 2.18 L – 1.18
Twins/Astros 8.5 Under (-113) 1.12 units to win 2.12 L – 1.12
Cubs/Brewers 9 Over (100) 1 unit to win 2 W +1
Angels +102 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.02 W +1.02
Cardinals -103 (SH) 1.02 units to win 2.02 W +1
Reds +170 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.7 L -1
Blue Jays +114 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.14 W +1.14
Mets/Dodgers 7 Over (-125) 1.25 units to win 2.25 W +1
Cubs 100 (SH) 1 unit to win 2 W +1
Twins +210 (SH) 1 unit to win 3.1 L -1
Giants +133 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.33 L -1
Yankees -159 1.59 units to win 2.59 L -1.59
Orioles +190 1 unit to win 2.9 L -1
Day Total 6-7 -1.73
Grand Total 47-53-1 -3.75 units
Sides 24-29 -1.07 units
Totals 24-21-1 +0.71 units
Parlays 1-4 -3.39 units
CFB
Day Total
Grand Total 1-2 -1.2 units
Spread 0-2 -2.2 units
Totals 1-0 +1 unit
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Once it was decided to indiscriminately play the early reverse line moves, I felt like I had to follow through on the whole lot of them. This, along with my own leans, led to a season high 13 plays yesterday (it says in the intro that I might not be good at this and it also said in the first article that this experiment is intended to entertain too). I didn’t understand or agree with a lot of them, but all of a sudden the Cardinals and Blue Jays were out to big leads very early and it looked great. It went downhill from there and the play here was even against the biggest line mover in Texas. A side that won going against the money.
Still, with just three games left, the record sat at 6-4 and needing just one win in three to assure a profit for the night. That didn’t happen. The best daily fantasy night of the season (Bergman, Story, Ohtani) in a mistake lineup (forgot to filter out the game in Oakland and accidentally ended up with both Fiers and Sanchez too) easily covered the sports betting losses, but that’s not at all important here.
I’ve now tracked games where the line has moved against the public or not moved with in accordance with the bet percentage for almost a month now. Blindly using that method alone is not a surefire winner. There are some instances and indicators where it’s still profitable after a great week last week, but what are the filters I need to add?
Most of the big dogs have been losers this week and yesterday, all of them were. I don’t know that I’m supposed to like these big dogs either (although I really didn’t understand the line movement on any of them yesterday – Reds, Twins or Orioles), but dogs are going to lose more than they win.
So there was a method to the madness yesterday, although I can’t promise it was a very sane one. I don’t plan on playing so many games again, or even as many as I’ve played this week, but a major reason I’ve been able to be so liberal with my plays is the one time play through match bonus on Sugar House (use promo code: GRINDERS). They immediately double whatever you put into the account up to $250 and require just a one-time play through. It really is as close as you can get to free money.
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With just a four games today plus the NFL opener, that leaves some space to be filled and the opportunity to be a bit wordier today.
Yesterday’s post started covering NFL daily fantasy articles and tools available on the site that might be useful for sports bettors as well. Today, much bigger news. RotoGrinders is launching SharpSide, a new sports betting site and app. One of the earliest available features is the ability to track plays and there’s a big contest for Week 1 in which players can win up to $500 or a RotoGrinders Premium Subscription. Many more tools and features are to come.
Lastly, I’m not even sure if I should record NFL games here because this article isn’t published on weekends, but I’m about 95% sure I’m going with the Falcons tonight and the reason is significant line movement along with the fact that past Super Bowl winners have a poor record opening in such cases (line movement against them). With the size of the move so far, it seems to make more sense to me to just play Atlanta on the moneyline to win straight up, but should I wait and hope the public moved it back some towards the home team?