From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Tuesday, September 18th
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to succeed in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.
Last week, RotoGrinders launched Sharp Side, a new sports betting app. One of the earliest available features is the ability to track plays. Many more tools and features are to come.
Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Additional updates via Twitter (@FreelanceBBall) for west coast games.
Red Sox/Yankees Over 2.5 HRs (+200) (BS) 1 unit to win 3
Stephen Strasburg 8 or more Ks (+150) (BS) 1 unit to win 2.5
Mariners +150 (BS) 1 unit to win 2.5
Diamondbacks -108 (SH) 1.08 units to win 2.08
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8PM ET Update
It looks like we’re not going to be getting FanDuel back before the 8pm games, which means we’re going to move over to BetStars for the +150 play on the Mariners tonight. This line continues to drop with more than half the action going the other way. In a DFS sense, I like the young Houston pitcher for strikeout upside at the minimum price, but, as mentioned earlier, that doesn’t mean he should necessarily be a large favorite.
In later games. The Cubs and Diamondbacks are both essentially throwing their bullpens at each other with Montgomery and Andriese going the first three or four innings. Both bullpens have been below average. The Cubs won last night, but still have just a team 54 wRC+ over the last week. The Diamondbacks are also getting some reverse line movement here.
I like both pitchers in San Diego, but the total is really low at seven. The Padres are a favorite and getting some slight reverse line movement. Here’s the difference for me. Holland has a .258 xwOBA over the last month, Lucchesi .372. No play on this now. I’m going to wait and see if FanDuel comes back up later and see where the line goes. Any play on this game will be posted on Twitter (@FreelanceBBall) later.
I kind of love Kershaw too, especially with Story now out too, but I’m not laying 200+ here. If I can figure out another angle from which to approach it in the next couple of hours, that will be posted via Twitter too.
Mariners +150 (BS) 1 unit to win 2.5
Diamondbacks -108 (SH) 1.08 units to win 2.08
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7:30 ET Update
FanDuel Sportsbook seems to be down for the last half hour or so. Last update of the night coming when they get back up and running. There will be some late game plays.*
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6 PM Update
This is not one of the further updates I mentioned, but I just realized I forgot to explain my interest in the Strasburg prop. He has a 28.1 K% this season, 26.2% over the last month. The Marlins have a 22.8 K% vs RHP, but 27.7 K% over the last week. Further, PlateIQ gives tonight’s specific Miami lineup a 23.3 K% vs RHP. Since I’m getting +150 here, I only need to hit it 40% of the time to break even. The Marlins should slightly accentuate Strasburg’s strikeout rate, as they strike out a bit more than average, but let’s say he’s around 28-30%. Strasburg has faced 27 batters exactly in each of his last two starts. Let’s say he faces 25-27 batters tonight. He’d need almost exactly a 28-30 K% to hit eight. This is why I see value at +150 and would love to see these type of props on more pitchers more consistently.
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5:30 ET Upate
We’re only waiting on west coast lineups at this point and ready to dig in.
First, a bit of frustration. I was really digging and digging into the individual pitcher strikeout props on BetStars and even thought I have one or two worth playing, but they’ve been continually disappearing all afternoon. Incredibly frustrating because you don’t know which ones to spend the time on and then even if they are there, they may no longer be after you’ve done the work. The one that’s continually flickering in and out that I’m most interested in is Strasburg at eight or more strikeouts +150 in Miami. If I can find it again, I will post a play, but right now, it’s no longer there and I haven’t received a response from a DM to their twitter feed yet. Just as I type this, the prop just reappeared and then disappeared once I tried to select it. There’s some kind of glitch going on.
There’s also the matter that I can’t find a single moneyline or total that I like among all games where lineups have been released (I do have a few west coast leans as of right now). Even more concerning, one game I thought I might like has shown some strange and concerning line movement in Atlanta. The Cardinals seem to be the more popular side, but not nearly enough to see the line drop that’s occurred. If the Braves get much lower, I may end up acting on it later and going against the move. No play for now.
The other game where I’m seeing interesting line movement is in Houston. The line seems to have dropped significantly, but I’m a bit more bearish on Leake, who’s hard contact rate has been trending upward again. Taking my DFS glasses off, where I see some strikeout upside in Josh James at the minimum on DraftKings, does he really deserve to be a large favorite here? That’s not a 7pm start, so there’s still some time to stew on that.
There’s still one Daily Odds Boost bet I like a bit. J.A. Happ is a bit HR prone. Steve Pearce has five against him by himself. Although not stated in the update, Kevin did suggest a light wind blowing out at Yankee Stadium. The Boston bullpen has a 4.78 FIP over the last 30 days. Mookie Betts is out, but Aaron Judge is back. True, we don’t know if his power will be affected, but it’s Yankee Stadium. Judge could probably swat it out without using that hand.
And great news! The Strasburg prop has reappeared.
Red Sox/Yankees Over 2.5 HRs (+200) (BS) 1 unit to win 3
Stephen Strasburg 8 or more Ks (+150) (BS) 1 unit to win 2.5
Of course, we’ll have to include a new props category above now. I will be back with at least one more update, possibly two tonight.
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Yesterday’s recap:
MLB
Mets +124 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.24 W +1.24
Marlins +136 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.36 W +1.36
Reds +156 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.56 L -1
Mariners +154 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.54 W +1.54
Diamondbacks -134 (SH) 1.34 units to win 2.34 L -1.34
Rockies/Dodgers 7.5 Under (-120) (FD) 1.2 units to win 2.2 L -1.2
Giants +108 (FD) 1 unit win 2.08 L +1.08
MNF
Bears -4.5 (-108) (SH) 1.08 units to win 2.08 W +1
MLB
Day Total 4-3 +1.68
Grand Total 66-70-1 -0.15 units
Sides 37-42 +0.79 units
Totals 30-24-1 +3.45 units
Parlays 1-5 -4.39 units
NFL
Day Total 1-0 +1 unit
Grand Total 4-1 +3 units
Spread 2-0 +2 unit
Moneyline 1-0 +1 unit
Totals 1-0 +1 unit
Parlays 0-1 -1 unit
CFB
Day Total
Grand Total 2-4 -2.4 units
Spread 1-2 -1.2 units
Totals 1-2 -1.2 units
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The Mets blew a 4-0 lead, but still won by five. The Marlins clawed back from a 4-0 deficit to win. The Reds did not score, which really impacted their odds of winning. The Mariners had allowed only one run, but also did not score…until an eighth inning pinch-hit Grand Slam! The Dodgers went over the total early in the game all by themselves, which was my fear there. A play on the Rockies under alone would have been the smarter move, I realized only after I’d placed the bet. Favorites above -130 are rarely played here and I still don’t think one has cashed yet. The Diamondbacks ensure that continues. The Giants break the tie and make it a profitable MLB night.
Da Bears.
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Tuesday is a relatively light day for NFL DFS content, so we’ll continue our romp through the RG content schedule to highlight content and tools that can be both daily fantasy and sports betting useful tomorrow, but we can utilize Notorious’s First Look to get an early jump on lines and some DVOA and Pace of Play matchups.
Today, though, let’s take a look at prop bets. There are more than a reasonable person can ever imagine, some of them just pure gambling coin flips, like “will the final score be an odd or even number”? How does one ever analyze something like that? There are others like individual team totals and alternate lines that we’ve played here already. I’m more interested in exploring some player props right now though.
DraftKings doesn’t have anything outrageous as far as NFL props, at least this early in the week and they really don’t have anything on individual players. For MLB player props, they list four guys with potential HR odds, which would be an interesting thing, except that the player’s team also has to win the game for some reason.
SugarHouse, which leans closely towards DraftKings with most things, also does not have any individual player props available for NFL games yet. They also have only the four player HR and team win prop as far as individual MLB player props are concerned.
Right off the bat, FanDuel has their Daily Odds Boost, which is a two team MLB parlay today (there’s usually a moneyline parlay one each day), boosting the Dodgers and Indians from +113 to +135. We can track this throughout the day up until 7pm ET at least, to see if the lines change enough for this to be a larger edge. The pitchers are Kluber and Kershaw against Rodon and Freeland.
As far as NFL props, the new one today is a special where players can choose who the NY Giants will win their first game against (this is a New Jersey book after all). They are currently +200 this week at Houston, but that’s no fun. At home vs New Orleans next week is +$300 and that actually sounds like a very NY Giants thing to do. If not, boy do they have a tough schedule ( Carolina, v Philly, Atlanta) before getting to a home game against the Skins at the halfway point for +900. Hmm…
Individual NFL player props for right now, consist of first TD scorer for each game. There are currently no individual player props. Players can bet whether or not the game will include a grand slam. Another interesting thing I just noticed is the ability to bet a first seven innings line, which may be a future option when not wanting to deal with bullpens. I believe I’d prefer that over a five inning line.
PokerStars or BetStars, which is connected to your PokerStarsNJ poker account, has so many promos and gimmicks. They also have a current promo where you get 100/1 odds on any team to win the SuperBowl on your first $5 for every team currently below 100/1. This, combined with FanDuel’s current promo where you get up to $50 back if you play a SuperBowl future and the Patriots win instead, seems like it might have some profitable angle if I could just figure it out.
They also have numerous props on the Yankees and Red Sox (time moved from 1pm to 7pm ET). One is a Spin & Bet where you pick a team, enter a bet amount and then spin a wheel to increase your potential profit up to 10x. I may attempt this if I can find a side to like in this game. They also have odds boosts on Eovaldi to strike out at least five batters (+125), Over 2.5 HRs (+250) and Happ to strike out at least seven batters (+160). Parlay Odds Boosts include Indians (Kluber vs Rodon), Twins (Odorizzi Norris) and Blue Jays (Sanchez Bundy) at +450 along with the Royals (Skoglund Taillon), White Sox (Rodon Kluber) and Braves (Sanchez vs Gomber) at +1500. I believe the Royals kill that latter one for me, but if not, an intereting approach might have been to take the FanDuel Dodgers/Indians Odds Boost along with the other side in this one.
Stars is lacking in NFL player props or many props at all at this point in the week. On the MLB level, they seem to have the Daily Odds Boost promos on individual pitcher strikeouts and total HRs on several games, but not all. Pitcher strikeouts might be right up my alley. I may be playing a few of these today. However, these are not over/unders. The only option given is to take the over.