2024 Genesis Invitational Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-02-13 16:39:41

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 Genesis Invitational. You can use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

After another long shot came through in Phoenix, the PGA TOUR heads to Riviera for its third signature event of the year. The Genesis Invitational, hosted by Tiger Woods, will also feature Tiger Woods. Tiger will make his first start since the Hero World Challenge. Along with the attention Tiger will garner this weekend comes a massive purse and giant prize up top. Who will come out on top? Let’s take a look at betting odds, the field, and the course.

The Genesis Invitational Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – February 13th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the Genesis Invitational:

• 2023 – Jon Rahm (-17)
• 2022 – Joaquin Niemann (-19)
• 2021 – Max Homa (-12)
• 2020 – Adam Scott (-11)
• 2019 – J.B. Holmes (-14)
• 2018 – Bubba Watson (-12)
• 2017 – Dustin Johnson (-17)
• 2016 – Bubba Watson (-15)

To qualify for this week’s 70-player (roughly) field, a player would have to:

• Finish in the top 60 in the FedEx Cup Standings last season.
• Finish in the top 5 throughout the last five PGA TOUR Events.
• Sit in the top 30 of the OWGR and not otherwise qualified for the event with the first two conditions.

There are three sponsor exemptions for the event. Will Zalatoris, Gary Woodland, Adam Scott, and, of course… Tiger Woods. The host of the event returns for his first event of the year on the PGA TOUR. Woods finished 18th in the Hero World Challenge and had more time to get healthy ahead of the third signature event. Woods is 180-1 to win the event on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jon Rahm will not return to defend his 2023 title. In fact, since 2016, only two winners of this event have not left for the LIV Tour. Max Homa and Adam Scott will tee it up in a talent-filled field. Scottie Scheffler, to no surprise, leads the odd board with Rory McIlroy. Scheffler played well in Phoenix despite not completing his three-peat. Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele return after withdrawing from the WM Phoenix Open.

With a field of just under 70 golfers, Tiger Woods demanded a cut of some sort despite the signature status. The top 50 and ties will play the weekend.

2024 Genesis Invitational Betting Preview

• Course: Riviera CC
• Date: February 15 – 18
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,322
• Greens: Poa

Riviera Country Club proves to be a true test for golf’s elite despite not being especially long. Series of undulating fairways and green complexes, doglegs, and tons of sand forcing players to make golf shots. While distance and driving are helpful, Riviera’s kikuyu grass will not force a bomb and gauge approach. Instead, players must be accurate and position themselves to hit greens.

Over the last 20 years, the cut line for this event has been par or worse. Saving par and avoiding bogeys have been vital to making the cut in recent years. Who knows what will happen with the cut line this weekend with only 65 or more players in the field?

Last season, Jon Rahm won the event with a whopping 11.9 strokes gained on approach. In 2022, Joaquin Niemann put on a ball-striking clinic, lapping the field from tee to green and gaining 7.1 strokes on approach. Players will need to put on a ball-striking clinic to fight for the $3.5 Million top prize.

Around-the-green play will be very important this weekend. Augusta National and Quail Hollow are often compared to this course because of the required creativity around the tricky green complexes. While the layout isn’t the same, players with plenty of shots in their bag around their green will stay afloat for the weekend.

The majority of par 4 holes will be from the 450-500 yard range. For this reason, we should dial up the 150-175-yard range when concerning proximity. Viktor Hovland leads the field over his last 36 holes on par 4s of this length. Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, and Patrick Cantlay round out the top five. Aberg is putting together quite the season in 2024 with back-to-back T10 finishes in his last two starts.

Sam Ryder leads the field in proximity from 150-175 yards even with a missed cut in Phoenix last weekend. Scottie Scheffler leads the field in all proximity. This should surprise nobody as Scheffler remains second to nobody with a golf club in his hands. All clubs except the putter, of course. The tournament favorite continues to pile up T10 finishes as we all wait for his putter to come around.

This week’s model will focus on SG: APP, SG: OTT, Bogey Avoidance, SG: ARG, and Par 4 450-500 yards.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Ludvig Aberg +1800

While the spotlight will be on Tiger, the next up-and-coming star on TOUR could be ready to break out. Aberg has not played at The Genesis Invitational yet but has the game befitting a potential champion at Riviera.

Aberg ranks sixth in SG: OTT over his last 24 rounds. Further, he ranks 6th or better in our key Par 4 bucket and proximity range. Aberg is an interesting place to start our card if we want to add more options to our card. Aberg also makes for an interesting OAD play if ownership concentrates on the top of the odds board.

Wyndham Clark +3500

Clark is beginning to come alive in 2024. After a 54-hole victory at Pebble Beach, Clark played well at the WM Phoenix Open. Clark couldn’t quite get anything going on Sunday. I might look past this, considering the interesting schedule for players throughout the tournament.

Throughout his career, Clark has gained more strokes on poa than any other surface. His three starts at Riviera have been solid, with two T20 finishes. Clark is a different player in 2024, having had three wins over the last 12 months. With a U.S. Open victory and a win at the Wells Fargo signature event in 2023, he has the moxie to keep up with the best golfers on TOUR. At this point, we might need to consider him one of the best golfers on TOUR.

Clark provides value as an outright and would be a very sneaky OAD play.

Cameron Young +3500

Cameron Young showed life in Phoenix at Waste Management. He finished in 8th place after a strong weekend. Young gained across the board except for SG: ARG.

With poor play around the green, complexes at Riviera could be problematic. We want to jump back on Young before he gets white-hot. Young has two starts at The Genesis Invitational — finishing 20th and 2nd. Young’s second-place victory came when Niemann went wire-to-wire in a historic performance. If he can clean up play around the greens, Young’s driving and ball-striking puts him squarely in play at a decent price.

Hideki Matsuyama +7000

Hideki seems to be getting back on track in recent events. Like Phoenix, Matsuyama has an excellent track record at Riviera.

Granted, Matsuyama’s three T10 finishes are in fields far weaker than a signature PGA TOUR event. Matsuyama has gained more than 7 strokes tee to green four times at this event. Still, at 70-1, we might be able to live with the warts in Hideki’s game. In such a short, elite field, the string of longshot victories might end. Matsuyama gives us great pedigree at a good price.

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