NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Giants-Bills DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Bills vs. Giants on Sunday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down DraftKings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
Just like Thursday, we’re in for another potentially lopsided game, as the 1-4 Giants head to Orchard Park to face the 3-2 Bills. The Giants will be starting Tyrod Taylor, as Daniel Jones is out with a neck injury. Saquon Barkley has a chance to play, but I wouldn’t call it a sure thing just yet. Darren Waller and Dawson Knox are questionable, but both are expected to play. Dalton Kincaid is looking like a true GTD, as he tries to clear the concussion protocol.
If the matchup wasn’t tough enough for the Giants, they’ll have to deal with cold and potentially wet conditions. There’s a chance for some rain, but the wind should stay around 10-15mph at worst. The Bills are coming off a bad loss to the Jags in London, so they are massive favorites at home tonight, and they absolutely can’t afford to lose this game against an inferior team. The Giants have nothing to lose, and with a new QB, I’m hoping they try some creative plays and just have some fun tonight.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Giants at Bills Week 6
Currently, this game is sitting at a 43.5 total, with the Bills favored by 15.5 points. This is the biggest spread of the week, and the Bills’ 29.5 team total is the second highest for week 6, while the Giants have the second lowest team total of the week at just 14 points. Even with the Bills defense losing White, Milano, and Jones the last couple weeks, they’re still a top unit in the league, and if the Giants somehow win this game, I would consider it one of the biggest upsets in NFL history. Even if the Giants keep this within a two scores by the 4th quarter, I’d consider that basically a win for them, as I’m expecting the Bills to pour it on early and not take any chances of letting the Giants hang around and steal the game late.
Quarterback
Any time Josh Allen is on a showdown slate, he’s absolutely a must play in cash games and is highly likely to be in the captain spot on the top lineups. The Giants are allowing 28.2 points per game and 378 total yards per game, and Allen’s floor / ceiling combo is just too high to fade if you’re only playing one lineup.
Tyrod Taylor hasn’t started an NFL game in just under two years, and this is about as rough of a matchup as he could ask for in his return as a starter. The Bills are allowing just 16 points per game and 191.2 passing yards per game, and if the Giants couldn’t put up points with Jones at QB, it’s not going to get much easier with Taylor. At $9,400 I wouldn’t consider him a must for cash games, but if you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry) I would certainly have exposure to him, as there’s a chance his legs could save his day if he can rush for a TD or two, even if it’s just in garbage time.
Running Back
Even if Barkley is active, I would be hesitant to play him in cash games at $11,000, as he never got a full practice in this week, and wet conditions against a tough opponent is less than ideal for making a return from a high ankle sprain. The Bills have been worse against the run compared to the pass, so he could pay off his price if he can break a long TD early, but I think the more likely outcome if he’s active is that he gets some chances in the first half and is then phased out of the game as the Bills continue to run up the score, and if he doesn’t score an early TD, he won’t be worth his salary. If Barkley is out, then Breida and Gray will likely split work, and I won’t be on either outside of GPPs.
The Bills’ RB situation has been a bit frustrating for James Cook fans, as he has seen limited goal-line opportunities and hasn’t been a true 3-down back. This should be a “get right” game for Cook against a Giants defense allowing 151.4 rushing yards per game, and for $9,200, he is a solid cash game play. He should definitely be on any GPP teams you make that go lighter on the Bills’ passing game for max leverage. Murray ($3,600) and Harris ($1,800) are just GPP plays that are extremely TD dependent for any value.
Wide Receiver
The only negative thing I can say about Stefon Diggs ($12,200) this game is that there is some blowout risk that may limit his usage, but like Allen, I will not be fading someone with the upside of Diggs on my main lineup. He’s seen 7-13 targets in every game, has 100+ yards in all but one game, and 5 TDs on the year, so fade him at your own risk. Gabe Davis ($7,800) has been great this year, with four straight games with a TD and his first 100-yard game last week. He should absolutely be on any lineup you build without Diggs, and I don’t mind including him on full stacks with Allen and Diggs. I would even have him in plenty of captain spots if you’re doing MME. Harty, Shakir, and Sherfield are just GPP punts.
The Giants WRs remain completely unpredictable, as all six of them see snaps and 2-6 targets a game, so using any in cash games is just a risk I’m not willing to take. If I had to use one, it would be WanDale Robinson ($4,600), as his targets have been the most consistent the last three weeks (17 total).
Tight End
Darren Waller ($7,400) is coming off his best game of the year with an 8-86-0 line on 11 targets, and if the Giants want to keep this game competitive, they will need to get him 10+ targets again. Waller is easily my favorite cash game skill player under $7,500, and I’d include him on pretty much any lineup you build that includes Taylor.
Dawson Knox ($3,800) and Dalton Kincaid ($4,200) have both been way too inconsistent to be considered cash game plays, especially with both coming in with questionable tags in a game script that should limit their usage in the passing game.
Defense / Special Teams
I have zero interest in the Giants DST outside of a couple of GPP fliers, and I’d rather take a shot on someone like Campbell, Harris, Gray, or Hyatt if you have to fill a super cheap flex spot. The Bills DST ($6,600) is expensive but certainly in play for cash games, and I’d even use them in the captain spot on some GPP teams.
I don’t think the Giants get in field goal range much, so I’m not interested in Gano, while Tyler Bass ($4,800) should have about a 4-6 FP floor just on extra points, and he should get 2-3 FG opportunities as well, making him a solid cash value play.
Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
I’d be hesitant to use more than 1-2 Giants on any build, with Waller and Robinson my top bring backs on Bills-heavy lineups. If Barkley plays, then I’d make at least a couple GPP teams featuring Taylor-Barkley stacks with maybe one of the pass catchers too, but I’m basically just loading up on Bills combos with Allen, Diggs, Davis, Cook, and the Bills DST rotating in the captain spot.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Josh Allen – Coming off a loss against a bad Jaguars defense, I’m expecting a vintage Allen game with 3+ total TDs.
2. Stefon Diggs – Highest upside skill player by far and someone you’ll likely need to cash double-ups at a minimum.
3. James Cook / Gabe Davis – I’d include at least one of them on almost every build, as one of them is highly likely to put up 20+ FP.
4. Darren Waller – My favorite Giants bring back for cash games, as he’s the most consistently targeted Giants skill player.
5. Bills DST / WanDale Robinson – I like sprinkling both across plenty of lineups in GPPs, and I’d be OK using either for a final flex spot or two in cash games.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Sunday Night Football
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