Giants vs. Vikings Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Giants vs. Vikings Odds
| Giants Odds | +3 |
| Vikings Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 48 |
| Date | Sun, Jan. 15 |
| Time | 4:30 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
On Sunday afternoon, the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings will meet for the second time in less than a month when they see each other in the wild-card round. In Week 16, Minnesota emerged victorious 27-24 on a game-ending 61-yard field goal as part of a 27-point fourth quarter. In the rematch, oddsmakers are expecting another competitive game script, pricing the Vikings as 3-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
New York Giants
Danny Dink-and-Dunk
Per Pro Football Focus, Daniel Jones had the lowest average depth of target of any qualified quarterback during the regular season. Though Jones threw for a career-high 3,205 passing yards and a career-best five interceptions in 16 games this year, he still leaves much to be desired as the leader of this offense.
Nonetheless, he is supported by one of the league’s best running backs, Saquon Barkley. In the regular season, Barkley totaled 1,312 yards on the ground – good for fourth-best in the NFL. The primary concern for this offense is protection, with an offensive line that finished 24th in pass blocking grade this year.
Defense returning key contributors
Cornerback Adoree’ Jackson will return to the field this weekend for the first time since Week 11. From Week 1 to Week 10, games in which Jackson played at least 37 snaps, the Giants defense ranked 20th in EPA overall, 17th in dropback EPA, and 24th in rush EPA. From Week 11 to Week 17, New York’s defense ranked 30th in EPA overall, 19th in dropback EPA, and 30th in rush EPA. His return to the field will help provide stability to a unit that has struggled across the last month.
Defensive tackle Leonard Williams and edge defender Azeez Ojulari are also expected to play on Sunday. Williams finished the year ranked 13th out of 126 players at his position in defense grade, per Pro Football Focus – grading in the top 20 as both a run defender and a pass rusher.
Minnesota Vikings
Slow starts plague offense
In the first three quarters of games this season, Minnesota’s offense ranked 24th in EPA overall, 23rd in dropback EPA, and 25th in rush EPA. In the fourth quarter and overtime, the Vikings offense ranked 2nd in EPA overall, 2nd in dropback EPA, and 28th in rush EPA.
Though many pundits have pointed to this group’s unsustainable run of good fortune, winning all 11 of their one-score contests, it is more likely that this group is talented, but lacking focus for a full 60 minutes.
Kirk Cousins finished the regular season with the fourth-most passing yards and fifth-most passing touchdowns of any quarterback in the NFL. Dalvin Cook had the sixth-most rushing yards of any player during the regular season, and Justin Jefferson led the NFL in both receptions and receiving yards. There is no shortage of offensive talent on this roster.
Showing up when it matters most
Similar to the offense, Minnesota’s defense struggled mightily early in games, but was one of the best units in the league late in contests. During the first three quarters, the Vikings’ defense ranked 28th in EPA overall, 27th in dropback EPA, and 21st in rush EPA. In the fourth quarter and overtime, this unit ranked 5th in EPA overall, 7th in dropback EPA, and 2nd in rush EPA.
On the defensive line, Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith were elite this fall. Cornerbacks Patrick Peterson and Duke Shelley both graded in the top-four out of 122 players at their position in coverage grade in 2022, per Pro Football Focus. Safety Harrison Smith and linebacker Jordan Hicks were each significantly better than league average at their respective positions as well.
There is more than enough talent on this side of the ball for Minnesota to earn a win on Sunday. The primary concern is whether or not the coaching staff can get this group to lock-in for all four quarters.
Giants vs. Vikings – Picks & Predictions
Per Jordan Raanan, quarterbacks making their first career start were 12-24 with a 57.9% completion rate and a 39-to-34 touchdown-to-interception ratio entering the weekend. However, as we saw on Saturday, young quarterbacks who are surrounded by talent are capable of performing well in these situations. Brock Purdy tossed three touchdowns and threw for 332 yards in his playoff debut against the Seattle Seahawks.
New York is healthier than the first time they played Minnesota, and the majority of their starters enjoyed a Week 18 bye against the Philadelphia Eagles. Factoring in the Vikings’ early game struggles, there is opportunity for bettors to attack the first half of this contest at plus-money. Trust Jones in his playoff debut, and trust his ability to take his team into the tunnel at half-time with the lead in this spot.
PICK: Giants ML – 1st half (+125, MGM)
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