New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction & Pick
Giants vs. Bills Odds
| Giants Odds | +16.5 |
| Bills Odds | -16.5 |
| Over/Under | 43.5 |
| Date | Sun, Oct. 15 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
The New York Giants and Buffalo Bills will meet on Sunday Night Football in Week 6 at Highmark Stadium. Entering play, New York is tied for the worst record in the NFL. Buffalo is one game behind the Miami Dolphins in the loss column for first place in the AFC East division.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Bills as 16.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 43.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
New York Giants
What to expect from Tyrod Taylor
Starting quarterback Daniel Jones will miss Sunday’s contest against Buffalo, forcing Tyrod Taylor into action for his first start of 2023. Taylor was a three-year starter for Buffalo from 2015 to 2017 but has not held a consistent starting role since that point.
Nevertheless, Taylor is a capable backup by NFL standards, judging by his 60-to-26 touchdown-to-interception ratio for his career. Taylor, similar to Jones, is a dual-threat, which should mean that the offense is able to deploy a similar playbook to what they have used in the first five weeks of the campaign.
Though starting a backup signal caller is never plan A, it is hard to imagine a significant drop-off in production for this offense relative to what we have seen so far this fall. Entering play, New York ranks 31st out of 32 teams in passing yards per play. Taylor has an opportunity to surprise in this matchup, especially if running back Saquon Barkley and tight end Darren Waller have no setbacks during their pregame warmups.
Ojulari put on Injured Reserve
Edge defender Azeez Ojulari was placed on injured reserve yesterday, meaning that he will miss at least four weeks of action. Ojulari ranks fourth on the New York defense in quarterback pressures so far this season despite the fact that he has played in only three games.
Ojulari’s absence only further weakens an already weak Giants’ defense which ranks 31st in yards allowed per play so far this fall. This group is likely to struggle once again in Week 6.
Buffalo Bills
Allen, Diggs looking to take advantage of favorable matchup
In Week 5, the Giants’ defense had the lowest pressure rate of any team in the NFL. On the season, only a handful of teams have generated less consistent pressure than New York, which bodes well for Josh Allen and company on Sunday Night Football.
According to PFF, Allen has completed 80.3% of his pass attempts for 8.7 yards per attempt this season from a clean pocket, compared to a 51.2% completion rate and 6.0 yards per attempt when under pressure. Allen has also done a good job with ball security when kept clean, committing only two turnover-worthy throws on 136 dropbacks.
Allen will not have a more favorable matchup this season than the one they have in front of them tonight. Expect them to be aggressive, as they look to exploit an inexperienced New York secondary unit.
Bills defense missing key pieces
Last weekend, Buffalo lost linebacker Matt Milano and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones to injury, which will keep both players from suiting up in Week 6. Milano has been one of the best linebackers in the NFL this season, ranking 8th out of 78 qualified players at his position in coverage. Jones has been elite against the run while providing support as a pass rusher as well. According to PFF, Jones ranks 5th out of 128 qualified players at his position as a run defender so far in 2023.
In short, Buffalo’s defense is dealing with a myriad of injuries in addition to having to deal with jet lag after coming back from London less than a week ago. This is a prime letdown spot for this unit – even against an inferior opponent.
Giants vs. Bills – Picks & Predictions
Were Daniel Jones playing and this game were not in prime time, New York would likely be closer to a 13-point underdog in this spot. The fact that this is an isolated game on national television has drawn plenty of public attention to the fact that the Giants will be starting a backup quarterback against a Buffalo team that has been branded as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The reality is that Tyrod Taylor is not a significant downgrade from Jones, and he has an opportunity to surprise this evening against a Buffalo defense that is dealing with impactful injury issues. The road underdogs should be able to keep this contest relatively competitive.
PICK: Giants +16.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)