Giants vs. Dodgers Odds, Picks & Game 4 Prediction
Giants vs. Dodgers Odds
| Giants Odds | +158 |
| Dodgers Odds | -188 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Tuesday, Oct. 12 |
| Time | 9:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
On Tuesday evening, the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers will battle in the National League Division Series at Dodger Stadium. Entering play, San Francisco has won 23 of their last 29 contests. Los Angeles has won 20 of their last 25 games. In Game 4, the Giants will send Anthony DeSclafani to the hill. He will be opposed by Walker Buehler. Oddsmakers are anticipating the Dodgers forcing a decisive Game 5 at Oracle Park on Friday, pricing Los Angeles as -188 home favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
San Francisco Giants (+158)
Through 31 turns in the rotation this year, DeSclafani was a pleasant surprise for the Giants with a 3.17 ERA, 3.92 xERA, and a 3.62 FIP. However, he was less than stellar against the Dodgers—posting a 7.33 ERA in six trips to the mound. Away from Oracle Park in 2021, DeSclafani was unimpressive with a 4.14 FIP and a 23.4 strikeout percentage. Amongst qualified starters in 2021, Wood ranked below league average in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, strikeout and whiff percentage. An inability to generate weak contact on Tuesday could get him into significant trouble against a vaunted Los Angeles lineup.
During the regular season, the Giants ranked fifth in OPS and third in ISO against right-handed pitching. However, the majority of the right-handed pitchers that they saw this year were not of Buehler’s caliber. San Francisco has scored only seven runs in 27 innings to begin this series. A date against one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball is unlikely to give them the opportunity to have a breakout night at the plate.
San Francisco’s relief corps ranked seventh in bullpen FIP over the final month of the campaign. Their struggles in Game 2 could be partly attributed to the fact that none of their relievers had appeared in live game action in nearly a week. In Game 3, this unit was much sharper, holding the Dodgers scoreless for 4.1 innings in relief of starter Alex Wood. Manager Gabe Kapler got Expect this unit to be sharp again with a trip to the National League Championship Series on the line.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-188)
After another sensational campaign, Buehler has cemented himself as one of the best young starting pitchers in the league. In 33 starts this year, he posted an outstanding 2.47 ERA, 3.08 xERA, and a 3.15 FIP. At Dodger Stadium, he delivered a 3.36 FIP and a 0.96 WHIP. On short rest tonight, he will look to get revenge on a San Francisco lineup that tagged him for three earned runs in Game 1 of this series. Buehler is immensely talented, but he is a risky play tonight against a Giants offense that has given him trouble in the latter half of the season.
Los Angeles has a star-studded lineup, but the offensive output from this group has been inconsistent in 2021. In Game 1, this lineup was shutout, totaling only five hits. In Game 2, the same lineup erupted for nine runs on 11 hits in a dominant victory to even up the series. In Game 3, the Dodgers were inexplicably shutout by Alex Wood and the Giants bullpen. If there is one opposing pitcher that Los Angeles wants on the mound with their season on the line, it is DeSclafani, who the Dodgers had little trouble scoring against this year. Expect Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Will Smith, and the rest of this talented lineup to generate a number of run-scoring opportunities in this contest to keep their season alive.
Prior to Game 3. Kenley Jansen and Blake Treinen had not appeared in a game since last Wednesday. Brusdar Graterol was the only member of this relief unit to appear in each of the first two games of the division series, totaling only 21 pitches in his two appearances. In relief of Max Scherzer yesterday, Treinen threw 15 pitches and Jansen tossed 14 pitches. Manager Dave Roberts has everyone rested and available in this one. Expect him to be aggressive with his relief corps at the earliest signs of trouble from Buehler in this contest.
Game 4 Pick
Last night, the Dodgers were shutout for the second time in this series. Tonight, they face a far more hittable pitcher in DeSclafani. Buehler on short rest presents some risk for bettors against a dangerous San Francisco lineup. It is tempting to trust Los Angeles to win this game, given their wealth of talent. Yet, a smarter play is simply to bet on their bats to come alive in Game 4. Take the over on their team total.
PICK: Dodgers team total, Over 4 runs (-128)
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