New York Giants vs. Washington Football Team Player Props: Bets for Gibson & Heinicke
NFL Week 2 is just hours away! We’ve already previewed Thursday Night Football odds, now NFL betting analyst Andy Means is here to give you a pair of best Giants vs. Washington player prop bets. Follow along to find out why he believes there’s value on the Taylor Heinicke and Antonio Gibson at online sportsbooks.
Washington Football Team Player Prop Bets
Taylor Heinicke Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-105 at BetMGM)
Taking the over on a (relatively unknown) quarterback’s rushing prop is never fun, but the numbers say this is a pretty good bet. And besides, we can get some great value here at BetMGM. Every other book I am looking at has this line higher (in the 20.5 to 22.5 range) AND with more juice on the over side.
But can Heinicke actually hit this over? Well, let’s take a look.
The guy whose name sounds like a beer has played three games for the WFT: one regular season game last year, one playoff game last year (wait, what?), and one regular season game this year. But here’s the thing, that playoff game (against Tampa) was the only one of the three in which he played the whole game. The other two appearances involved him subbing in for various reasons. In the instance last season, he played two series in the fourth quarter when Dwayne Haskins got benched. And then of course we know what happened last week, when he came in for FitzMagic in the first few minutes of the second quarter. So keep all of that in mind when I show you his rushing stats now from those three games.
2020 regular season game versus Carolina: 3 rushes, 22 yards
2021 playoff game versus Tampa Bay: 6 rushes, 46 yards
2021 regular season game versus the Chargers: 3 rushes, 17 yards
So the one full game he played saw him run for 46 yards. Sure, it was probably because he was running for his life against that defense…but it still counts!
The one last thing I will note here is that, last season, the Giants allowed the fourth most quarterback rushing attempts (81) in the league. That is probably somewhat noisy but also somewhat relevant I suppose too. Anything to make me feel better about this one, ya know?
If you are joining me on this one, then just remember that sacks do not count as negative rushing yards against the quarterback. So if Heinicke is back there getting roughed up tonight, it won’t affect the bet.
Come on Taylor, all we’re asking for is two 10-yard scrambles on 3rd and 9 for first downs. Then you can go back to handing the ball to Gibson!
Antonio Gibson Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Instead of trying to formulate my thoughts into beautifully written paragraphs in an attempt to explain why I think this line is low, how about I make things easier for all of us and just “think out loud”, so to speak, by listing off a bunch of things I find relevant? Sound good? Cool…here goes!
1) Gibson is coming off of 20 rushes for 90 yards in Week 1 against the Chargers, a defense that just so happened to rank 6th in Rush DVOA last season. That number of rushing attempts tied his career high, which he hit twice last season.
2) Ryan Fitzpatrick is on the shelf for the foreseeable future (hip injury). And while it won’t exactly be new for the WFT to see Taylor Heinicke at the helm, this should theoretically mean that they rely on the run game even more.
3) Gibson’s opponent, the New York Giants, just gave up 146 yards rushing to Denver’s running backs (101 for Melvin Gordon; 45 for Javonte Williams). That shouldn’t be too much of a surprise considering they were 26th in Rush DVOA last season.
Throw in the fact that we have Gibson projected for roughly 78 rushing yards, and I am honestly struggling to find a reason not to love this bet. Join me, won’t you?
Image Credit: Imagn