Hawks vs. Bucks Game 3 Preview, Picks, & Prediction
Hawks vs. Bucks Odds
| Hawks Odds | +4 |
| Bucks Odds | -4 |
| Over/Under | 224.5 |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
| Odds accurate as of Saturday at BetMGM | |
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Just when we thought the Atlanta Hawks were world-beaters, who could not be contained by mere mortals—the Milwaukee Bucks boat-raced them in a Herculean effort to tie the Eastern Conference Finals at 1-1. Now the series starts anew down in the ATL, and emergent superstar Trae Young will be looking to serve the Bucks some southern inhospitality.
Milwaukee, of course, still finds itself the odds-on leader to go the distance and win the NBA Championship at online sportsbooks. So naturally, the Bucks are -190 on the moneyline in Game 3, and -4 against the spread.
Hawks Ready to Bark as Home Underdogs
Young and the Hawks have heard it all before. They have been labeled underdogs all postseason, counted out of every single series before Game 1. And in every Game 1, Atlanta pulled off the upset. And at the end of every series, Nate McMillan and his young, cocky (and sometimes punky) Hawks are still standing.
Just like the Western Conference Finals right now, this best-of-seven is a tough one to advise on right now. Milwaukee looks like the moment is too big for them one game—with Giannis Antetokounmpo seeming like a modern-day version of Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, or Patrick Ewing. Then, he posts 25-9-6 and shoots 11-of-18 in a huge Game 2 victory, and Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday combine to shoot 15-of-27 for 37 points, 15 assists, and nine boards. Maybe they are ready for the moment.
Hell, even Brook Lopez showed up to play on Friday, shooting 6-of-8 for 16 points. The veteran big man had been MIA on the offensive end in Game 1, to the point that Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer had to remove him late in the game. Lopez getting into a groove could be huge for Milwaukee—he’s one of the most impactful, yet least credited members of the Bucks roster.
But the crucial Game 2 win was not about individual players—it was about the entire Milwaukee roster stepping up as one. Fourteen different players scored Friday, and eight players finished with seven points or more. Four different Bucks grabbed at least six boards, which helped contribute to the massive 47-34 rebounding disparity. Bud’s squad also won the assist battle by a margin of 29-to-13.
Bucks Stepping up on Defense
Game 2 was also about Milwaukee stepping up on defense. Whatever was said in the postgame speech after the Game 1 upset—or perhaps before Friday’s action—must have resonated. The Bucks finally played the defense the NBA world expects of them. Holiday blanketed Young, holding him to 6-of-16 (and 1-of-8 from long distance) and just 15 points, three assists, and two boards. No other Hawk finished with six made field goals.
Atlanta finished Game 2 with an abysmal 34-of-82 from the field (41.5%), and 9-of-36 from three-point land (25%). They turned the ball over 19 times. Kevin Huerter and John Collins, recently made heroes in the Land of Peaches, were an ungodly -31 and -33 by the final buzzer. Young finished -29.
As Monty Williams probably had to do after the Suns’ Game 3 shellacking by the Clippers, McMillan most likely just tossed out the tape after Friday’s contest. There’s not much you can do or say when your team of shooters goes ice cold from the floor, and your super-athletic big men get outplayed by P.J. Tucker and Brook Lopez. Atlanta knows it has to shoot better, and its bigs know they have to be more aggressive if Georgia wants anything to do with the NBA Finals.
Hawks vs. Bucks Picks & Predictions
Just like McMillan, I’m not terribly concerned for the Hawks. If oddsmakers want to give them four points at home, I’ll gladly take the underdogs that keep on reaping rewards for their believers. My disbelief in their clutch genes expired last round when they dismantled the top-seed Sixers in Game 7. I’m now fully on-board the ATL bandwagon, especially if they are getting two buckets at home.
The Hawks are 26-15 against the spread at home this year, and 28-13 on the moneyline. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has a paltry 17-25 record on the road this season, the second-worst road winning percentage in the NBA in 2020-21 (40.5%).
The Bucks may win Game 3, and successfully reclaim home-court advantage in the best of seven. But we should all be smart and learn from our mistakes when it comes to Atlanta getting points. Atlanta covering as a ‘dog at home has been about as dependable as the dice-roll move on a wedding dance floor—you simply can’t go wrong.
- Prediction: Bucks 117-115
- Pick: Hawks +5
Image Credit: Imagn