NBA Betting Angles & Picks for Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Game 1 and Series Odds
The NBA Playoffs continue with a two-game slate Monday night. In the East, the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks will commence the second round of the postseason at 6:30 PM ET, while the Houston Rockets will try to avoid a Game 7 again the Oklahoma City Thunder at 9. In this article, we’ll take a look at NBA odds and sports betting picks for the Heat-Bucks Round 2 series.
Heat vs. Bucks Game 1 NBA Betting Odds
Round 2 Odds: Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Time: 6:30PM ET
Series Prices
Milwaukee Bucks -500
Miami Heat +360
Updated NBA Championship Odds
Bucks +300
Heat +2500
Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat were quick to, well, heat up in Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs, sweeping the Indiana Pacers and becoming the first team to punch their ticket to the second round.
The Milwaukee Bucks stumbled out of the gate, losing Game 1 to the Magic in one of the biggest playoff upsets in recent memory. However, that’s all the Magic would get. The Bucks responded by winning the next four games, sending the Magic packing over the weekend.
Milwaukee entered the NBA bubble as the East Conference betting favorites and remain so as they begin their Round 2 series with the Heat. However, advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals won’t come easy.
Miami has caught fire behind a stellar supporting cast for Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. The Heat posted the second-best three-point percentage in the league during the regular season. On top of that, the Heat are one of the best rebounding teams in the league. They put their rebounding prowess on display against the Pacers, grabbing, currently, a playoff-high of 55.3% of shots off the glass. Getting hot from three-point range and grabbing rebounds is a perfect recipe for an upset, especially if the Bucks’ Khris Middleton continues to struggle from the perimeter.
Heat-Bucks Round 2 Betting Angles & Picks
I think there’s some value on the Heat to win the series but I prefer betting the Heat moneyline in individual games rather than taking the series. For one, rollover betting strategy usually pays out more than futures or series prices do. I won’t exactly be rolling over here, though. Instead, let’s look at the moneyline for Game 1 at DraftKings: Heat +200.
If we bet 1 unit each game on the Heat moneyline at this price and they win the series in seven games, we come out ahead +5 units rather than the 3.6 if we just bet on the Heat to win the series. Moreover, if the Heat lose 4-2 and we follow the same strategy, we actually come out ahead +2 units despite losing the series. Of course, this approach comes with some additional risk if the Bucks sweep Miami 4-0, but if the Heat just win one game out of the five, and the moneyline stays roughly the same, we end up losing the same amount had we risked 1 unit on the series prices. It’s also worth noting the moneyline might shorten if the Heat win some early games.
As you can probably tell, I’m on the Heat in this series. But more so than the aforementioned betting angle, I like betting on the Heat +5.5 in Game 1 Monday night.
For what it’s worth, our friends at ScoresAndOdds.com agree. Their Powerline Rating makes this spread Heat +2, similar to FiveThirtyEight’s NBA model which makes the Bucks only 1.5-point favorites and gives the Heat a win probability of 44% — implied odds of +127. By all measures — the Game 1 spread, Game 1 moneyline, and the Round 2 series price — if you’re looking for an edge, your best bet is on the Miami Heat.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images