Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Heat vs. Celtics Odds
| Heats Odds | +8.5 |
| Celtics Odds | -8.5 |
| Over/Under | 217.5 |
| Date | Fri, Oct. 27 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
Friday’s NBA double-header on ESPN will begin with a matchup between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics at 7:30 p.m. ET from TD Garden. Both the Heat and Celtics won their season opener in games that went down to the wire. Ahead of tip-off this evening, oddsmakers have priced the Celtics as 8.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for tonight’s action is set at over/under 217.5 points.
Below, we break down the matchup for both teams and offer a free pick for the betting community!
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Miami Heat
Heat offense struggling to find their footing to begin new campaign
On opening night, the Heat scored only 103 points against the lowly Pistons. Miami shot 40.2% from the floor and had only 22 assists in a slim one-point victory. It goes without saying that bettors should not overreact to small sample sizes to begin the new season, but this is nothing new for Jimmy Butler and company.
Last year, the Heat finished the regular season ranked 25th out of 30 teams in offensive efficiency, scoring only 112.3 points per 100 possessions. Their offense was even worse on the road, ranking 26th and averaging only 109.6 points per 100 possessions.
It is only one game, but the early returns suggest that the Heat are going to struggle to score the basketball once again this season.
Heat defense as good as ever
If there is one bright spot to take away from Miami’s season opener, it is that their defense looked elite. The Heat are led defensively by arguably the best defender in the entire NBA, Bam Adebayo, who had a pair of blocked shots against the Pistons. Jimmy Butler is also one of the better defenders in the league, and he got off to a strong start to the new campaign with a pair of steals.
Last season, only Milwaukee had a better defensive efficiency than Miami on the road. Expect this group to make life difficult for the Boston offense on Friday evening.
Boston Celtics
New-look Celtics looking for 2-0 start
The Celtics had a sexy off-season, bringing in Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis to add to what was already one of the best starting units in the entire NBA. In their season opener against the Knicks, the starters played well together, with no player earning a negative plus/minus for the contest. Notably, Porzingis was +13 in 38 minutes, scoring 30 points and adding eight rebounds.
The larger issue for Boston this season will undoubtedly be their bench. It is highly unsustainable over the course of an entire season to play only one bench player more than 14 minutes. This might not be an issue on Friday, but it will be worth monitoring how Boston handles their rotations if any of their starters get into early foul trouble.
Can Boston take care of home court?
Last season, Boston was 32-9 on their home floor and outscored their opponents by 10.1 points per 100 possessions. Only the Grizzlies had a better Net Rating than the Celtics in home games during the 2022-2023 campaign.
Boston’s home crowd will unquestionably be excited to see their new-look starting five in live action for the first time since making their big off-season acquisitions. TD Garden is expected to be loud on Friday, which should give the Celtics at least somewhat of an added boost in this matchup.
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Prediction
Celtics (-8.5)
An 8.5-point spread seems like a massive spread in a matchup between two teams that have legitimate championship aspirations this season. Yet, in the modern NBA, a competitive game can flip into a perceived blowout with only a few trips up and down the floor.
On opening night, Boston struggled mightily from the perimeter, shooting only 30.8% from the floor. Still, they managed to escape Madison Square Garden with a win in their season opener. Returning home for Friday’s matchup against the Heat, the Celtics should experience some positive shooting regression from deep, which could threaten to blow this game open.
The home favorites should be able to earn a comfortable win tonight in their first home game of the new season.