Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Heat vs. Hawks Odds
| Heat Odds | +4.5 |
| Hawks Odds | -4.5 |
| Over/Under | 228.5 |
| Date | Saturday, Nov. 11 |
| Time | 7:30 PM ET |
| TV | Bally Sports Southeast |
On Saturday, the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks will meet at State Farm Arena. Entering play, Miami has won three consecutive games to climb back to .500 on the young season. Atlanta won in thrilling fashion on Thursday in Mexico City for their fifth victory in their last six games. Ahead of tip-off this evening, the Hawks are favored by 4.5 points on the spread. The total for tonight’s action is set at over/under 228.5 points.
Below, we break down the matchup for both teams and offer a free pick for the betting community!
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Miami Heat
Heat Culture propelling winning streak
The Miami Heat are at their best when they are using their defense to win games, which runs counterintuitive in many ways in the modern NBA. Nonetheless, the Heat have won three consecutive games as a result of their tenacious efforts on the defensive end of the floor, allowing the 5th-fewest points per 100 possessions in the league during that stretch. In those three wins, the Heat still rank only 18th in offensive efficiency.
Tyler Herro ruled OUT
Tyler Herro will miss Saturday’s game against Atlanta due to a right ankle sprain, which opens the door for Kyle Lowry to have more usage in the team’s offense. Herro exited Miami’s game on Wednesday early because of his ankle injury, and Lowry responded with a season-high 17 points on a season-high 11 field-goal attempts.
Head coach Erik Spoelstra commented to the media earlier this week that Lowry “knows his aggressiveness is important to our team.” He went on to say that “we’re going to need more of it,” referring to Lowry being aggressive with Herro not on the floor. He could be in for another high-usage game on Saturday against the Hawks.
Atlanta Hawks
Fatigue a concern for Atlanta on Saturday
On Thursday night, Atlanta played in Mexico City, which obviously is a significant distance to travel. Additionally, the game in Mexico City was played at an altitude of 7,349 feet above sea level, which is over 2,000 feet higher in elevation than when teams play in Denver.
Trae Young and Dejounte Murray each played at least 33 minutes in Atlanta’s victory, making it unlikely that they will be in optimal shape two days later to play another heavy set of minutes. If the Hawks starting lineup is unable to carry the load, the offense could struggle, considering the Hawks rank middle-of-the-pack in bench points per game.
Atlanta defense vulnerable against Miami
Atlanta has been vulnerable on the perimeter defensively this season, and that is likely to hurt them again on Saturday. Entering play, the Hawks rank 20th in opponent 3-point attempts per game and 19th in opponent 3-point percentage. Atlanta has been particularly vulnerable above the break, ranking 21st in opponent 3-point percentage above the break. This is a major vulnerability against a Miami offense that ranks 4th in 3-point percentage on such attempts through their first eight games of the season.
Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Prediction
Heat +4.5 (-110)
According to Cleaning The Glass, the Miami Heat rank in the 53rd percentile in defensive efficiency this season with Tyler Herro on the floor, compared to the 73rd percentile when he is off of the floor. If Kyle Lowry continues to be more aggressive on the offensive end of the floor with Herro out, Miami’s offense is capable of doing enough to cover the spread in this spot against an Atlanta Hawks team that is dealing with a much more difficult travel schedule heading into this contest.