Heat vs. Lakers: NBA odds, Picks and Predictions
Heat vs. Lakers Odds
| Heat Odds | -8.5 |
| Lakers Odds | +8.5 |
| Over/Under | 225 |
| Date | Wed, Jan. 4 |
| Time | 10:00 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
On Wednesday evening, the Miami Heat will travel to Hollywood to battle the Los Angeles Lakers. In a rematch between the two teams that met in the 2019-2020 NBA Finals, Los Angeles will be missing both LeBron James and Anthony Davis. As a result of James’ last-minute addition to the injury report, the market has moved significantly, with oddsmakers now pricing Miami as 8.5-point road favorites on the spread.
Miami Heat
Elite defense
Though Miami is only 9-10 away from South Beach this season, they own the 2nd-best defensive efficiency of any team in basketball on the road, allowing only 110.0 points per 100 possessions. Tonight, this group gets to face a Los Angeles offense that will be missing each of their top-two scoring threats. The result is that Lonnie Walker, averaging 14.7 points per game, is the team’s leading scorer entering action in this spot. Expect Miami’s defense to perform well against their short-handed opponents.
Heat at full strength
Miami has struggled to stay healthy during the first half of the campaign, which has hurt their ability to consistently win games. However, bettors should not allow themselves to believe that this unit has suddenly lost the talent that had them in the NBA Finals only a couple of seasons ago. Per Cleaning the Glass, when Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, and Kyle Lowry are on the floor at the same time this year, Miami ranks in the 72nd percentile in offensive efficiency and the 90th percentile in defensive efficiency – making them one of the better teams in the association.
Los Angeles Lakers
Lakers missing top two stars
The Lakers are undeniably one of the worst teams in the NBA when they are missing both LeBron James and Anthony Davis. In a sample size of 751 possessions this season, the Lakers rank in the 6th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 3rd percentile in defensive efficiency, per Cleaning the Glass. Los Angeles has been struggling mightily on the defensive end of the floor since Davis last played on December 16, ranking 27th in defensive efficiency in that span. The absence of James will make it extremely difficult for this group to be competitive.
“(player-popup #russell-westbrook)Russell Westbrook”:/players/russell-westbrook-1083’s time to shine
Per CourtIQ, when both James and Davis are off the floor at the same time this year, Russell Westbrook sees a 6.1% increase in usage, second only to Dennis Schroder on the team. In such situations, Westbrook is averaging 20.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per 36 minutes. Schroder is averaging 23.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 4.3 assists when the Lakers’ stars are on the sidelines.
Heat vs. Lakers – Picks & Predictions
The Miami Heat are one of the most formidable defensive teams in the NBA on the road this season and get a matchup on Wednesday against a Los Angeles Lakers team that will be without their top two scorers. Per Cleaning the Glass, Los Angeles is averaging only 106.1 points per 100 possessions when LeBron James and Anthony Davis are both off of the court at the same time this year. Facing a Miami team that is averaging less than 100 possessions per game, the under is a smart play in this spot.
PICK: Lakers Team Total Under 107.5 points (-120, DraftKings)
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