2024 Houston Open Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-03-27 15:10:18

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 Houston Open. You can use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus today!

As the Masters approaches, the PGA TOUR shifts over to Texas. With the WGC Match Play event extinct, the Texan Children’s Houston Open fills the week in the PGA calendar. Played during the fall season over the last 4 years, the Texas Open is hosted by Memorial Park Golf Club — a municipal course redesigned to test the TOUR’s best. Scottie Scheffler headlines a less-than-stellar field and is a prohibitive favorite this week.

Will Wyndham Clark or anyone in the field be able to keep pace with Scottie? Let’s look at betting odds and the course ahead of looking at some of Scottie’s competition.

The Houston Open Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – March 26th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 60/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the Houston Open:

• 2023 – Tony Finau (-16)
• 2022 – Jason Kokrak (-10)
• 2021 – Carlos Ortiz (-13)
• 2019 – Lanto Griffin (-14)

144 golfers will vie for this week’s winner’s check. The top 65 players and ties will play the weekend and likely try to ouster Scottie Scheffler on Sunday. Scheffler and Wyndham Clark have finished 1-2 in their last two events on TOUR and are easily the class of this field. Scottie’s odds are the shortest we’ve seen in a long time. While convention would suggest avoiding odds this short in a golf tournament, Scheffler has made it clear over the years that he loves putting on a show in Texas. Scottie holds the course record at Memorial Park Golf Club — shooting a 62 in 2021. He has two T10 finishes at this event.

Scottie will join five others as a representative of the T30 in the OWGR. We can tell by the texture of the odds board that Scheffler’s playing inflates the odds of everyone else in the field. We are short on golfers to bet short of 50-1, and for good reason.

Lanto Griffin and Tony Finau are the only previous winners in this week’s field, as Carlos Ortiz and Jason Kokrak currently play on the rival tour. Finau put together an incredible performance this past fall — winning comfortably over Tyson Alexander by 4 strokes. Finau has had a very quiet 2024 despite posting a few T20 finishes. Never really in contention, the field strength and familiarity with the course could jump-start Tony ahead of Augusta National.

The PGA TOUR will be experiencing a lull with field strength over the next couple of weeks, with the Masters on the horizon. However, for those in the field not qualified for the first major of the season, this event is as important as any other stop on TOUR. Let’s look over the course.

2024 Houston Open Betting Preview

• Course: Memorial Park GC
• Date: March 28 – 31
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 7,435
• Greens: Bermuda

In January 2019, Memorial Park GC underwent a redesign spearheaded by Tom Doak with help from Brooks Koepka. While this is a municipal course, Koepka’s influence can be seen as many of the changes have made the course a stiffer test for players. Over the last three seasons, even-par finished inside the top 40 when the dust settled. The course was lengthened, and bunkers were removed — with only 19 remaining. Finally, the Bermuda greens feature fronts and runoff areas constructed to test players’ short-game ability.

The Houston Open was contested in the fall at Memorial Park over the last 4 years after the redesign. Replacing the Match Play event, we are not sure what impact the change in scheduling will have on the event. Like many other courses on the Texas Swing, the wind can have a great impact on play this week.

Two water hazards place water in play on four holes. Three of the course’s 19 bunkers guard the 18th green. The greens average roughly 7,000 square feet. The redesign has made the course a true test for ball striking and a player’s short game. Bogey avoidance and scrambling will be key statistics at an event that likely won’t yield a birdie fest.

The course is composed of 10 par 4s, three par 5s, and five par 3s. While the 237-yard par 3 is one of the toughest holes on the course, the remaining par 3s are relatively short in average length and shouldn’t pose a great problem for players. Instead, players must deal with five par 4s spanning over 490+ yards.

The hardest five holes on the course are the aforementioned long par 4s. Nick Hardy leads the field over the last 24 rounds in Strokes Gained on par 4s that are 500+ yards. Patrick Rodgers and Billy Horschel are also in the top 5 in that category.

The plurality of approach shots at Memorial Park GC comes from north of 200 yards. Keith Mitchell leads the field in this proximity range. Mitchell took apart the Snake Pit last week at the Valspar before falling apart on Sunday. Tom Hoge ranks second in this category and first in SG: Approach. At +4500, Hoge might be a value given his form in 2024.

Along with around-the-green play, putting seems crucial to a player’s chances at hoisting a trophy in Houston. Over the last 4 years, tournament winners have gained 6 or more strokes on the bermuda greens. Tony Finau and Jason Kokrak both gained more than 7 strokes and finished second in putting for the week. The redesign of this course requires that golfers have a well-rounded game between ball striking and short game. Taylor Montgomery leads the field in putting, while Billy Horschel finds himself in the top five of another key category.

For this week, we will emphasize approach, off the tee, bogey avoidance, scrambling, par-5 scoring, SG: ARG, and SG: Putting. We will include the key proximity range as well of 200+ yards.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Wyndham Clark +1200

To be clear, Scottie Scheffler is the best player in the field and will likely test the merits of the rationale that +260 is too short to bet on an outright winner. So, instead of continuing with Scheffler’s historic run, we will focus on some golfers who could challenge him for a victory in Houston.

Wyndham Clark has two near victories over his last two events. His putt on 18 at THE PLAYERS Championship felt like it hit the bottom of the cup before spinning out and preventing a playoff with Scottie. Clark continues to ascend as one of the best players on the PGA TOUR and is likely only priced at 12-1 because Scottie is in the field. Like Scottie, however, Clark is a step or two above the field.

Clark ranks highly in every statistical category we mentioned in our course preview. With an incredible blend of length and touch, Clark will have no issue with the stretched-out redesign of this course and possesses the creativity around the greens to save pars. The prize pool might not warrant a one-and-done selection, but I wouldn’t take issue with using Clark as an outright bet this week.

Sahith Theegala +1800

If you want more bang for your buck, look no further than Sahith Theegala. Almost always a factor in his events, Theegala had three T10 finishes this season. Like Clark, Sahith checks all of our statistical boxes and is a force on the greens.

Normally priced more favorably, Sahith must be considered in a significantly weaker field. If Scottie falters, Sahith can rise to the top of this field with his excellent putting and play on par 5s. Theegala is known to be a bit of a risk-taker on the course but ranks 9th in bogey avoidance. As he develops in front of our eyes, Theegala is learning to take more calculated risks.

If you still have him available in one-and-done, Theegala makes sense this week as he is less likely worth saving for the majors season. He warrants an outright selection and is a strong building block for DFS lineups.

Tom Hoge +4500

Tom Hoge rates out incredibly well every week and continues to play very well. While his PLAYERS Championship performance was a slight letdown, Hoge still made the cut and played the weekend. Otherwise, he continues to churn out strong finishes, with four T20 finishes in 2024.

With the field strength way down, Hoge is a great value at 45-1. Scottie doesn’t win every single event he plays in, even if it feels like he could. Hoge leads the field in approach and checks in at second in proximity from 200+ yards. He is one of the better ball strikers in the field. With Hoge, around-the-green play is always a concern. He will need to keep his play around these challenging greens even with the field and take advantage of his precision approach play.

Billy Horschel +6000

Finally, we might go back to the well with Billy Horschel this week. We continue to see a pattern this week with Horschel. At the elevated events with stronger fields, he struggles to make the cut. When the field strength is lowered, Horschel is a factor on the weekend.

Horschel missed the cut at THE PLAYERS Championship but bounced back with a 9th-place finish at the Valspar Championship. Affectionately given the nickname Bermuda Billy for his play in Florida over the years, Horschel will feel at home on the Bermuda greens in Texas. He ranks 5th in putting in the field and top twenty in bogey avoidance and scrambling. If he can score when he has opportunities, Horschel will be able to stay on course with tough par saves.

I think he is a good outright selection this week at these odds, but he can be left out of consideration for one-and-done play.

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