Identifying Trends for FanDuel - Week 8

Identifying trends is extremely important to daily fantasy football and online sports betting success. If you want to win your weekly contests and bets, you have to be proactive in identifying trends and figuring out how those trends influence the value of that player and his teammates. This weekly article will attempt to help you in that process by highlighting a couple of players whose values may be trending up and a couple of players who are trending down.

Trending Up

Chase Edmonds ($6,100)

I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that Chase Edmonds was trending up pending David Johnson’s health. Edmonds did see an increase in usage in Week 6 with Johnson battling a back injury but waited until Week 7 to explode in a game where Johnson only played 3 offensive snaps.

Johnson’s lingering health problems could give us an opportunity to play Edmonds again this week at what’s still a cheap price tag. Edmonds showed what he can do with an increased workload as he played 60-of-64 Week 7 snaps and parlayed 29 touches into 150 total yards and 3 touchdowns. Reports that the Cardinals are trying out RBs Jay Ajayi and Spencer Ware seem to indicate that DJ may not be able to suit up against the Saints which would once again mean a bigger role for Edmonds.

A.J. Brown ($5,500) / Corey Davis ($5,500)

The only direction the Titans passing game could trend was up, even though newly named starter Ryan Tannehill has been woefully mediocre throughout his career. Still, Tannehill did just enough in his Week 7 start to inject a little life into his pass-catchers.

A.J. Brown still isn’t an every-down player – he saw a 63% snap-rate in Week 7 – but he did lead the Titans’ receiving corps with a 27% market share (8 targets) and a 26% market share of air yards. Notably, Corey Davis (23% target share; 27% market share of air yards) was also fantasy relevant for only the second week this season, catching 6-of-7 targets for 80-yards and a touchdown. Tennessee’s pass-catchers aren’t going to be a position we want to invest in the majority of weeks but they are firmly in play in Week 8 against a poor Bucs pass defense now that they have a semi-competent QB under-center.

Trending Down

Phillip Lindsay ($6,300)

The Denver backfield has been a timeshare all season long but Phillip Lindsay has largely trumped playing time concerns with off-the-charts efficiency. That wasn’t the case in Week 6 as Lindsay was only able to rack up 32 total yards on 12 touches. However, most concerning for Lindsay was his season-low 40% snap-rate compared to Freeman’s season-high 63% snap-rate. I don’t expect Freeman to be the Broncos’ feature back moving forward but did want to point out how volatile a player’s fantasy value is when they’re heavily reliant on efficiency. Denver’s backfield is one that I want to continue to avoid on a weekly basis unless one of Freeman or Lindsay gets hurt opening up playing time for the other back.

Carlos Hyde ($6,100)

Carlos Hyde carved out a bigger than expected role to start the season for the Texans but his Week 7 usage helped illustrate that his workload is largely game script dependent. The Texans found themselves playing from behind early and the end result was Hyde only playing 25-of-63 offensive snaps and carrying the ball 12 times. Hyde’s touches have been volatile this year and his carry totals starting in Week 1 are as follows: 10, 20, 10, 12, 21, 26, 12. Hyde has topped 20 carries three times and all were games where the Texans were playing with the lead.

Houston will continue to use Duke Johnson as their third down and pass-catching back which makes it difficult to play Hyde in any game where the game script could turn against him. The Texans are 6.5-point favorites in Week 8 which helps keep Hyde on the radar for the immediate future.

About the Author

MrTuttle05
Dan Gaspar (MrTuttle05)

Playing DFS since early 2011, Dan Gaspar (aka MrTuttle05) is an industry OG who has found success across multiple sports. He has qualified for countless Live Finals and takes pride in being able to adapt to the ever-changing DFS landscape. Dan now works as a Senior Projections Operator for Better Collective, overseeing projections for all core sports as well as being the main provider of projections for most niche offerings. Follow Dan on Twitter – @MrTuttle05