Colts vs. Cowboys Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Colts vs. Cowboys Odds
| Colts Odds | +10.5 |
| Cowboys Odds | -10.5 |
| Over/Under | 44.5 |
| Date | Sun, Dec. 4 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
This week’s edition of Sunday Night Football will feature the Indianapolis Colts and the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Entering play, the Colts are nearing mathematical elimination from the postseason, with a 4-7 record that has them three games behind the Tennessee Titans for first place in the AFC South. Dallas has won four of their last five games to improve to 8-3, but they remain two games behind the Philadelphia Eagles for first place in the NFC East. Oddsmakers are expecting a comfortable victory for the Cowboys in this spot, pricing Dallas as 10.5-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have lost five of their last six games, including a 24-17 defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football in Week 12. Simply, Indianapolis lacks skill on the offensive side of the ball. At 37 years old, Matt Ryan has an 11-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio and ranks 25th in QBR among qualified signal callers. Since being reinserted as the starting quarterback for this offense, Ryan has thrown for 222 yards, 213 yards, and 199 yards in three games – only one of which was a win. The coaching staff is well aware of Ryan’s limitations, which has led to an increase in usage for running back Jonathan Taylor – who received at least 20 carries in each game he played in during the month of November. The gameplan for this offense will likely be similar again on Sunday Night Football, hoping to exploit a Dallas defense that ranks 20th in Rush EPA/play in 2022. Still, running the ball will be slightly more difficult tonight than it has been in previous weeks, considering the absence of right tackle Braden Smith. Per Pro Football Focus, Smith has graded significantly better than league average as both a run- and pass-blocker this year. His replacement, Matt Pryor, has been one of the worst offensive linemen in the NFL this season.
Defensively, Indianapolis has played well through 12 games, ranking 8th in defensive EPA/play. Yet, it is worth noting that this unit will be one day short on rest for this matchup after playing 67 defensive snaps on Monday in Week 12. Importantly, defensive end Kwity Paye will be available for the first time since Week 10. His presence will certainly help the Colts’ run defense in tonight’s prime time affair. Slot cornerback Kenny Moore II will be on the sidelines in this one, but his absence does not figure to change much from a production standpoint. Moore II has been a liability in coverage in 2022, making it possible that a replacement could be an upgrade in this spot.
Dallas Cowboys
Since Dak Prescott returned to the field in Week 7, the Cowboys rank 4th in offensive EPA/play, having excelled with a balanced attack that places appropriate emphasis on the air and the ground. In those five games, Dallas is 4-1, with their lone loss being an overtime defeat on the road against the Green Bay Packers – a game in which Dallas led by 14 points in the fourth quarter. Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott continue to be, arguably, the most lethal running back duo in the entire NFL, with each receiving double-digit carries and capitalizing on their opportunities on a consistent basis. Elliot has scored a touchdown in four consecutive contests as the team’s primary option in goal-to-goal scenarios.
Heading into the weekend, linebacker Anthony Barr, defensive tackle Quinton Bohanna, cornerback Trevon Diggs, and safety Jayron Kearse were each listed questionable due to different ailments. Across their last five games, the Cowboys rank 6th in defensive EPA/play, and have been particularly strong against opposing passing attacks – ranking 2nd in Dropback EPA/play. If Dallas can limit the effectiveness of Indianapolis’ ground attack this evening, they could make it very difficult for the Colts to put points on the board.
Colts vs. Cowboys – Picks & Predictions
The last time that a game involving the Indianapolis Colts totaled more than 45 points was in Week 6 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Tonight, bettors should expect the Colts to make every effort to establish a strong presence on the ground with running back Jonathan Taylor in an effort to attack the one area of Dallas’ defense that is slightly vulnerable. If the Colts can manage to run the ball effectively, they should be able to keep the clock moving, which will also work to limit the total amount of time that the Cowboys’ offense will have the football. If Indianapolis cannot run the ball effectively, it is highly doubtful that they will be able to find much success through the air against an extremely talented Dallas secondary unit. There are multiple pathways to the under in this matchup, making it a worthwhile risk for bettors.
PICK: Under 44.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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